The NCAA tournament regular season has officially ended. Now, we sit back and enjoy some postseason conference tournaments before Selection Sunday. Our first NCAA Tournament bubble piece has some significant changes today. It would seem that there are a few spots up for grabs amongst the following teams. Let’s dive into the 2024 NCAA tournament bubble.
The bubble shrunk drastically one day before Selection Sunday. Current bid stealers are the Atlantic 10, American, ACC, and Pac-12. New Mexico was already in the field before winning the Mountain West. Most likely, there will now be multiple 10 seeds in the play-in situation.
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch
These 13 teams will be listed in order of their current NET rankings, as of Selection Sunday. Of course, the NET is flawed, but it is an important metric for what the Committee decides to do.
Colorado Buffaloes: 24-10, NET: 25, KenPom: 27
Quad 1 Record: 4-5, SOR: 30
Colorado is interesting. They have no bad losses but also no great wins: 4-5 in Quad 1, 14-0 in Quad 3+4. It is usually difficult to earn a tournament berth without a big win. Additionally, Arizona lost before Colorado could face them in the Pac-12 final. They did end with 4 Quad 1 wins, at least. Ultimately, Colorado is a talented club that won enough games to earn a spot. They are just a relatively untested bunch for the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: In Dayton.
Michigan State Spartans: 19-14, NET: 24, KenPom: 19
Quad 1 Record: 3-9, SOR: 49
The Spartans are getting way too much love and it does not make sense why. They have a bad record, play in a weak conference, and have minimal good wins. There are multiple sources out there that have them at the 8 or 9 line. That is obnoxiously high for a team that has two notable wins over Illinois and Baylor. I am not saying that the Spartans will miss the tournament. I am saying they need to be much more on the bubble than they are. The Big 10 is being treated like it is deep and it isn’t.
Don’t forget the Spartans are also in a free-fall currently, losing 5 of their last 7. If I was on the committee, I truly would not have them in the field but I believe they will be seeded way higher than they should be thanks to the metrics that don’t match the eye test. 14 losses has to mean something.
Prediction: In Dayton.
Indiana State Sycamores: 28-6, NET: 29, KenPom: 45
Quad 1 Record: 1-4, SOR: 42
The Sycamores had the poor fortune of running into a red-hot Drake team in the Missouri Valley Conference championship. While they had a great season, they now need the committee to love them. Luckily, the NET looks upon them favorably, but let us look at the schedule a bit closer.
23 of the 28 wins for Indiana State have come against Quad 3/4 opponents. That is a really difficult number to justify and they also have a Quad 4 loss. The two non-conference Quad 1 games were losses to Alabama and Michigan State and were not that close.
Robbie Avila is a star. Indiana State plays a fun brand of basketball and can score plenty of points. They have the look of a tournament team but they do not have the resume of one. They are hanging onto the NET for dear life and the shrinking of the bubble knocks them out.
Prediction: Out.
Florida Atlantic Owls: 25-8, NET: 39, KenPom: 41
Quad 1 Record: 2-2, SOR: 28
Florida Atlantic made things very interesting here with the terrible loss to Temple. They have two (almost 3) Quad 4 losses and did not even make the conference finals of a weak American. They are safe and they can beat anyone in the field but man did they underachieve. The bid stealers just made things very interesting.
Prediction: In Dayton.
St. John’s Red Storm: 20-13, NET: 32, KenPom: 26
Quad 1 Record: 4-10, SOR: 46
Rick Pitino is going dancing. The Red Storm probably underachieved this year, but they still should be one of 68. The win over Creighton is going to go a long way because the nonconference record for St. John’s is weak. Ultimately, there might be a bit of a sweat on Sunday, but the metrics are just good enough.
Prediction: In Dayton as last team in.
Villanova Wildcats: 18-15, NET: 41, KenPom: 34
Quad 1 Record: 4-11, SOR: 66
The Wildcats have had an interesting year. Truthfully, they should be judged as having two different seasons: with Justin Moore and without Justin Moore. Last week, it seemed Villanova was a tournament lock. Then they dropped two straight games to Seton Hall and Creighton heading into the Big East tournament. There, they should have lost to DePaul and played one of the worst games all season. Even though they won that game, it statistically will act like a loss.
It was do or die against Marquette and they lost that one even without Tyler Kolek. Quite honestly, the win over UNC early in the season is the only reason they are still in this conversation.
Prediction: Out
Pittsburgh Panthers: 22-11, NET: 41, KenPom: 40
Quad 1 Record: 4-6, SOR: 45
The Panthers made a late push for the Dance. Knocking out Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament was good enough for another Quad 1 win. Blake Hinson and crew are once again good enough to win multiple games in the NCAA Tournament but will it matter?
Ultimately, Pittsburgh dug too big of a hole to get out of and the nonconference schedule is nearly impossible to overcome, especially with only 4 Quad 1 wins. This is one where the eye test says the opposite of the metrics. That close loss to UNC needed to be flipped for this to be a much more interesting conversation.
Prediction: Out
Texas A&M Aggies: 20-14, NET: 45, KenPom: 43
Quad 1 Record: 7-7, SOR: 40
The Aggies are tough to figure out. They have wins over Iowa State, Kentucky (x2), and Tennessee. However, there is a bad loss to Vanderbilt. This year, four high-quality wins feels like a gold mine so this is probably more than enough. Additionally, the tournament is about who you can beat. The Aggies can beat just about anyone when Tyrece Radford and Wade Baldwin are balling as they were against Kentucky.
Texas A&M is on the bubble for a lot of analysts but it does not appear that they have a bubble-worthy profile. They should be safe. Tough to leave a team with 7 Quad 1 wins out, regardless of NET ranking. That last Kentucky win should be the saving grace.
Prediction: In as a 9.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 20-13, NET: 44, KenPom: 31
Quad 1 Record: 2-8, SOR: 64
Wake Forest got the win they desperately needed against Duke and entered the field. They followed that by losing to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech and now might be on the outside looking in again. They needed to at least reach the ACC Tournament Final but instead lost their second game to Pittsburgh who passed them in the tournament race.
Prediction: Out
Oklahoma Sooners: 20-12, NET: 46, KenPom: 44
Quad 1 Record: 4-12, SOR: 32
The Sooners have been in a bit of a free-fall to end the year as well. They finished the regular season 2-6 in their last 8 including losing early in the Big 12 Tournament to TCU. Plenty is going in Oklahoma’s favor but nothing more than being in the Big 12. While they do not have huge wins, outside of a good Iowa State win, they beat who they were supposed to for the most part. Additionally, they have an early season blowout of Providence which should help. One thing to be extra careful of is the nonconference strength of schedule of 323. If they miss the tournament, that would be why.
Prediction: In Dayton.
Virginia Cavaliers: 23-10, NET: 54, KenPom: 68
Quad 1 Record: 2-6, SOR: 33
Virginia is backpedaling into March. The Cavs have not been able to score and are a tough watch. It is one thing to lose games, but to get blown out a handful of times is bad. The ACC has had a bad reputation over the last few years for making NCAA tournament cases. That likely continues this year as it is UNC, Duke, Clemson, and then everyone else.
Virginia also lost the chance to pick up a big win in the ACCT when Duke lost early and then UVA blew a late lead to NC State. The Cavaliers are 2-6 in Quad 1, have a bad metrics rating, and might not pass the eye test. This is by far the hardest team to place. I had them as the last team in before the ACC and Pac-12 bid stealers.
Prediction: Out.
Providence Friars: 21-13, NET: 57, KenPom: 53
Quad 1 Record: 6-9, SOR: 44
Another Big East team hoping for good luck on Selection Sunday. Providence is similar to Seton Hall but with a worse nonconference strength of schedule. Their high-quality wins are as good as anyone’s though. The Friars almost pulled off a nice Big East tournament run beating Creighton but ultimately could not get past Marquette. Truthfully, if Bryce Hopkins was healthy or would be healthy this could be a different story but it’s not.
Prediction: Out
Seton Hall Pirates: 20-12, NET: 67, KenPom: 62
Quad 1 Record: 5-8, SOR: 41
Seton Hall went through a season of ups and downs. They only won two of their last five and were blown out in the losses. A lot of people have the Pirates safe but the rankings are dangerously low. Having five Quad 1 wins including 3 Quad 1A wins is helpful at least. Beating UConn and Marquette has to be good enough especially when comparing that to other teams on this list.
The Pirates are well-coached and have good guards. If they do make the dance they could be a tough out. It is slightly concerning that they really struggle to shoot it though. This is one of the most confusing teams on the list. I would have them in over Michigan State but the committee will see otherwise.
