In the previous part of my SEC Tournament predictions, I went over what I think will be the Quarterfinals. This part will cover what I believe will be the SEC Semifinals and the Finals. Just so we’re all up to speed, the current matchups are as follows:
9. Mississippi State vs 4. Auburn
7. Texas A&M vs 6. Florida
2024 SEC Tournament Predictions: Semifinals and Championship
Semifinals
9. Mississippi State vs 4. Auburn
Following two great performances from each team, the two meet once again in the semis. The first matchup in late January saw the Bulldogs take home a 64-58 home win. That game saw both teams shoot under 25% from three, and the Tigers shot 33.9% from the floor. For Mississippi State, they’re coming off a win in which they did to Tennessee what Tennessee does to everyone else. They have to keep that defensive intensity to pull off yet another upset. Cameron Matthews and Josh Hubbard have to have another big game if they want to withstand an Auburn team that seems to have figured out something on offense.
For Auburn, the name of the game is depth. Play your game and be physical. Mississippi State will be playing its third game in as many days. With the Tigers’ strength being their depth, I fully expect them to go to work on what should be a fairly winded Mississippi State team. The defensive game plan is simple: contain Hubbard. The freshman has lit up some of the SEC’s best teams over the last few weeks; if he sees one go through the hoop, watch out. Make someone else beat you and trade twos; knowing your depth gives you an advantage inside. I don’t see Mississippi State having the energy to play with the Tigers for 40 minutes.
Auburn 84-72
7. Texas A&M vs 6. Florida
Not wanting to be left out of the upset club, both Florida and Texas A&M upset top three seeds to move on to the semis. In their first meeting, the Aggies escaped with a one-point road win. Unlike their last game, the Aggies won this game by holding the opponent under 70, winning regardless of a bad perimeter showing night. If you’re Texas A&M, you must come ready with the same bubble mindset you’ve had the last two games. You’ve shown you can win in multiple ways, but you still want to limit Florida’s possessions. You won last time off hunting their explosive backcourt instead of vice versa. Control the tempo and keep winning the glass, and you should get a similar result to last time.
For Florida, you want to try to make A&M play fast again. While they shot well today, they’re not shooting threes efficiently on the season. Keep Texas A&M off the offensive glass so you can get out and run. You don’t want Wade Taylor to get going again because he can drag a team to a win by himself. Also, don’t let A&M get to the foul line, as they score 23% of their points on the line, most in the SEC. I see this being a really ugly game. I think Buzz Williams creates a great defensive game plan, but Florida matches the defensive intensity. That kind of game favors Texas A&M.
Texas A&M 72-68
Championship
7. Texas A&M vs 4. Auburn
Not many would have imagined this being the SEC Championship, but here we are. In the first meeting, Auburn came away with a 66-55 road win, where Texas A&M’s offense struggled down the stretch. Both teams shot under 25% from three, which won’t happen again. For A&M, they turned the ball over 19 times in the last game, seven coming from Henry Coleman, which will never win you games in March. Taylor shot 0-8 from three, which won’t happen again. You have to win the turnover battle and run Florida off the three-point line.
For Auburn, who shot 22.7% from three, the shooting has really improved during March, and you can rely on that not happening again. Johni Broome got to the line ten times in the last meeting; you want to see him continue to be aggressive. While forcing 19 turnovers again isn’t likely, you hope to win the turnover battle again. Most importantly, A&M had 19 offensive rebounds in the last meeting, which cannot happen again. I think this game comes down to fatigue. This would be Texas A&M’s fourth game in as many days. Auburn’s depth and the extra day of rest will be too much.
Auburn 80-70
