In my previous article, I made my predictions for the first and second rounds of the SEC Tournament. In this rendition, I will cover the quarterfinals. The top four seeds have earned a double bye and up to this point making them fresher than all their opponents. Here are the quarterfinals matchups.
9. Mississippi State vs 1. Tennessee
5. South Carolina vs 4. Auburn
7. Texas A&M vs 2. Kentucky
6. Florida vs 3. Alabama
2024 SEC Tournament Predictions: Part 2
9. Mississippi State vs 1. Tennessee
Despite Tennessee‘s most recent game being a loss, they come into the SEC Tournament playing as well as anyone. Before the Kentucky game, they beat Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina in a row, the latter two on the road, amid a seven-game win streak en route to a SEC Regular Season title. In their only meeting this season, Mississippi State got the better of Tennessee in Starkville 77-72. Both teams have been top-five defenses in the SEC during conference play. The two biggest hurdles Mississippi State will face in this game are stopping Dalton Knecht, who had 28 in the first meeting, and the turnover battle, which they won in the first game 17-10. During SEC play, Mississippi State ranks dead last in the conference in turnover percentage. To beat Tennessee again they must repeat their success taking care of the basketball. Tennessee ranks first in defensive turnover percentage during conference play, turning teams over is what they do. That’s what I expect it to come down to. On a neutral floor, I struggle to see Mississippi State take care of the ball as well as last time. Give me Tennessee 74-64.
5. South Carolina vs 4. Auburn
South Carolina again proved me wrong, taking out Arkansas and ruining my perfect SEC Tournament bracket. In their previous meeting, Auburn came away with a 40-point dominant home win. In that game the Tigers shot 60 percent from three, well above the 35 percent mark they’ve hit throughout conference play. I have trouble seeing them shoot at that rate again. On the flip side, this is a really bad matchup for South Carolina. Their physical playstyle is how Auburn has thrived all year, and in the process, the Tigers have a depth advantage, which is huge in games like this that you expect to be physical. Despite that, in the last meeting, South Carolina only lost the points in the paint battle by six. Overall I don’t see a world where the Tigers shoot that well from three again, however, I just think this is such a bad matchup for South Carolina. I think part of the small points in the paint differential, was Auburn shooting so well from three, they shied away from what they do best. I see them attacking the paint more in this game, really imposing their will. I’ll take Auburn 73-66
7. Texas A&M vs 2. Kentucky
Kentucky comes into this game on fire. Having won seven of their last eight with the only loss being at the buzzer to LSU. Over that time, the Wildcats have taken down Alabama at home, and Auburn, Mississippi State, and Tennessee all on the road en route to finishing second in the SEC. In their previous meeting in College Station, the Aggies pulled out a huge win in overtime. It’s a little different now, with Kentucky having all their players available and with the game also being on a neutral court. The Aggies put up 97 points that day, their highest mark of the season, 59 coming from Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford. However, Kentucky’s defense has improved since that day. While they aren’t a defensive buzzsaw, they’ve been getting the extra five or six stops a game that likely would have had them leaving College Station with a win. Give me Kentucky 92-83.
6. Florida vs 3. Alabama
Before we dive into this game, I can not believe Florida is here. In the first round Tyrese Samuel set a record for most SEC free throw misses by a player since 1979. What a slugfest against a rival where both teams had foul trouble. Survive and advance. Round three of a series that gave us an absolute classic when the Tide pulled out a five-point overtime win in Tuscaloosa. Round two saw Florida dismantle the Tide at home, putting up over a hundred in an 18-point win. Both times against Florida, Alabama shot 25 percent or under from three. That cannot happen again, Alabama also has to find offense from someone outside of Mark Sears. He had 30 last time out, no one else really helped him out. For me, Florida has more consistent threats, Walter Clayton, Zyon Pullin, and Will Richard all guys who concern me on a night-to-night basis. I just haven’t seen enough consistency from a guy such as Grant Nelson to make me comfortably take the tide in this game. I’ll take Florida 88-80.
