Duke suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Arizona Wildcats. Tommy Lloyd and company walked into Cameron Indoor and got a monster win by playing a very physical brand of basketball. Let’s break it down for Duke.
Duke Suffers First Loss
Size Disparity
At one point in the first half, Arizona had 10 offensive rebounds to Duke’s zero. That disparity ended much closer with a 15 to 8 advantage for the Wildcats. Oumar Ballo and Keshad Johnson took it to the Blue Devils duo of Mark Mitchell and Kyle Filipowski. Arizona made it a point to play through Ballo down low, especially in the first half.
Mitchell was playing in his first game and he struggled mightily. He suffered a sprained ankle just before the season began but did not seem to have any physical limitations. Realistically, he was just outmatched in physicality.
Duke was always going to have a hard time with bigger teams. Starting Filipowski at the five is awesome for offense, but a weakness for the defense. Ryan Young is incapable of defending at a high level and has struggled against high-major competition. Christian Reeves has the size but gave up three offensive rebounds on the same possession his first time on the floor.
Rotation
The rotation of the forwards is a major question for Duke. It most definitely will be Flip and Mitchell to start. However, whatever happens after that is a crapshoot. Young is not the answer. He is too much of a liability on defense. Arizona frequently attacked him in pick-and-rolls and with three small guards on the floor, the help can only help so much. Defensive rotations were fairly sharp for Duke, but when a small guard is rotating to drop or bump a roller, there is only so much that can be done.
Reeves left a lot to be desired as well. His size and vertical ability earn him a few minutes a game but nothing more. Sean Stewart is the interesting one. He is certainly undersized and not quite strong enough to be a true five but his athleticism and energy make him the right answer. He also had a positive impact in his four minutes on the floor tonight. Whether it is for Mitchell or Flip, Stewart has earned more minutes.
The rotation of the guards was also unexpected. Tyrese Proctor, Jared McCain, and Jeremy Roach were the starters, as expected, but Caleb Foster barely touched the floor. This seemed like a game where Foster could flourish as Arizona utilized a ton of physicality and really made it hard on Duke’s guards. Foster loves to play a downhill game as a big guard and Duke could have used that tonight. He didn’t really give Scheyer a reason to leave him in the game but he likely deserved more than 13 minutes.
Guard Play
Tyrese Proctor was one of the more disappointing players in this game. The sophomore guard seemed poised for an All-American type year and his game against Dartmouth stoked that fire. He finished with 8 points, 5 assists, and 3 turnovers but his impact was atypical.
Many times, it seemed like he was trying to force the issue. I suspect a lot of his back-and-forth with Caleb Love made him want to make some highlight buckets. Proctor is going to help Duke by being a dominant playmaker. Scheyer and Co would sign up right now for Proctor to average 10 assists a game even if he didn’t score a single point.
Arizona made it a point to be very aggressive and get into the Duke guards. That seemed to speed up Duke and take them out of their offense. The result was a lot of hero ball and isolation play in the first half which heavily favored Arizona.
Additionally, Jeremy Roach seemed hesitant to pick his spots. Roach is this team’s Quinn Cook. He is the big shot taker and big shot maker. Roach needs to demand the ball in big situations. Instead, he attacked off a pick late in the game and got to the elbow but instead of elevating to potentially take the lead, he kicked it to Proctor who ultimately traveled. That is a play he must make if Duke wants to cut down the nets.
Things to Change
Run, run, run, run, run, run. Where in the world was the transition? Duke is playing one big and usually, all five guys can grab it and go. The pace of this game was unreasonably slow for the Blue Devils. The number of athletes on the court is far too high to play slowly.
Proctor is the playmaker. A lot of Duke’s offense can be high pick and rolls. Primarily, Proctor and Flip can dominate the middle and when that gets taken away, Proctor can find shooters. Additionally, Roach and McCain are very successful using screens. Get all three guards in spots to attack downhill especially when Flip has it going like he did in this one.
Mark Mitchell has to attack. The entire second half, Ballo guarded Mitchell like NBA players guard Ben Simmons. Initially, Mitchell took and missed some threes and then he just stopped playing offense altogether. Again, it was his first game of the year, but he is too good to be that passive.
No more Ryan Young. Rotations are going to continually evolve for the Blue Devils. However, Young has continually proven he cannot play at this level. If there is a player on the court who is targeted on every defensive possession, he cannot be on the floor.
Time to Panic for the Blue Devils?
Duke’s last loss last season came at the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers being tougher. The first loss this year comes from the Arizona Wildcats being tougher. That is definitely concerning for Duke. However, Duke answered the bell in this game in the second half. The offense started flowing and they really battled on the boards.
Duke is going to be a small team. Every game is going to take a big commitment to the glass and to defensive rotations to win. However, this offense can be elite. There are too many great players on the floor to be concerned. Depth is certainly an issue, but there are answers on the roster. Scheyer just has to trust them which he has been slow to do with most freshmen.
Luckily, the Blue Devils can respond by defeating Michigan State next week. They should bounce back in a big way against another physical team. Also, Cooper Flagg signed his NLI with the Blue Devils this week.
