The final push is on as conference tournaments are the only way teams can make an impression before Sunday. Bubble teams are feeling the pressure, and will either pop under it or stay alive. Meanwhile, seeding implications remain for teams that feel good about hearing their name a few days from now. We present our latest edition of college basketball bracketology, which can be found right here. You can compare this bracket to our prior edition.
We will have one final bracket prediction out before the Selection Show on Sunday.
LWOS 2020-21 College Basketball Bracketology 6.0
Conference Breakdown
The Big Ten holds firm with nine teams projected into the field. That number seems like it is solidified, barring a miracle run by Indiana or Minnesota. The ACC and the Big 12 follow behind with seven teams each. The ACC sees Syracuse surge into the field by a thread, while the Big 12 will only change if the NCAA makes a decision on Oklahoma State before Sunday. The SEC has six teams, though it could get another if Ole Miss makes a run in the league tournament.
The Pac 12 has four teams, and that also seems like a safe bet at this point. The Big East only has three teams in, with Xavier’s loss to Butler leaving them out of the field. The Mountain West also has three teams, and still could see a lot of movement with three members sitting on the bubble in either direction. The Atlantic 10, AAC, and Missouri Valley all continue to see two teams in our field.
Region Breakdown
Region One
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have officially locked up the top seed in the field after taking home the WCC Tournament crown and finishing undefeated. The Zags will be heavy favorites to make it to the NCAA Championship game, and only won one game this season by single-digits.
Alabama continues to sit on the two line, and it feels like the Crimson Tide can do no worse than a three seed depending on their results in the SEC Tournament. This will be a fun team to watch throughout the tournament.
Purdue continues to hang firm as one of the top 16 seeds, sitting as a four seed. The Boilermakers haven’t gotten much attention out of a loaded Big Ten this season, but they have quietly put together an impressive profile. This team could make a surprise run.
The Missouri Tigers have fallen hard the last few weeks, finding themselves on the eight line. Mizzou’s metrics are not great, but their body of work keeps them higher than where they would be by strictly numbers. This once promising group seems poised for an early exit.
Region Two
Baylor holds the second overall seed, and this is another projection that is a virtual lock. The Bears should at least reach the Big 12 semifinals, and even a loss before the title game shouldn’t knock them off the top line. The path seems set for a Gonzaga-Baylor final on paper.
Iowa finds itself on the two line, somewhere they have been sitting for most of the season. Depending on the results of the Big Ten Tournament, a jump to a top seed still doesn’t seem out of the question. This will be a situation to watch over the weekend.
Villanova is down to the three line, and the Wildcats are in a bit of a freefall with the injuries to Collin Gillespie and Jalen Moore. Still, Jay Wright is a fantastic coach and will get this team prepared to make a run in March. However, their national title prospects don’t look as good as they did a few weeks ago.
Loyola-Chicago is sitting as a seven seed in this region. The Ramblers locked up the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship last Sunday, and now wait to see how much the committee will reward them for their sparkling metrics. This is a sleeper for a deep run.
Region Three
Michigan remains as the the third overall seed in the bracket, though the gap between themselves and the other teams looking to reach the top line is slim. The Wolverines are still plenty dangerous, and their Big Ten regular-season title should keep them from falling out of a top seed.
West Virginia checks in as the two seed in this region. The Mountaineers have played well in the Big 12 all season, and they should be rewarded for their efforts by being put no lower than the three line. Bob Huggins has a group that could find themselves playing on the final weekend of the season.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are the three seed here. It’s been quite a rise for this program, jumping high into the AP Top 25 and in bracket projections everywhere. That should put them as a top 16 seed, and the job Eric Musselman has done in year two is nothing short of amazing.
St. Bonaventure has seen their seed rise up to the nine line in the past week. The Bonnies will have a chance to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament title a few hours before the Selection Show, but their place in the tournament seems safe regardless of the outcome.
Region Four
Illinois keeps their stranglehold on the final top seed for now. It feels like the Illini are safe in this position, though an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament could open the door for Iowa to slide in. Still, it will be tough for any team to stop the duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn.
The Houston Cougars still sit as a two seed, even though they haven’t looked the best over the last few weeks. If the Cougars don’t take home the AAC Tournament title, they could fall to the three line. Houston might be a team others in the bracket are excited to see.
The Kansas Jayhawks have gotten themselves back towards the top of the seed list, coming in as a three seed. Kansas’ surge included handing Baylor their only loss of the season. It might be time to buy stock in Bill Self’s group once again.
Michigan State’s huge win over Michigan last Sunday put them into the field. The Spartans road to a bid may not have been pretty, but it seems like it might be harder and harder to leave them out. They may not go very far, but in a year where blue bloods have struggled, they should be happy with making the field in our college basketball bracketology.
College Basketball Bracketology Bubble Teams
The last four teams into our college basketball bracketology are Louisville, Boise State, Colorado State, and Syracuse. Louisville lost to Duke yesterday, and the Cardinals profile all of a sudden looks slim. It feels like they will make the field, but barely. Boise State and Colorado State could feel a lot safer about their tournament prospects with strong showings in the Mountain West Tournament. Syracuse holds onto the final spot in the field for now with their recent surge.
The first four teams out of our college basketball bracketology are Utah State, Mississippi, Saint Louis, and Seton Hall. Utah State would most likely make the cut at the expense of one of their Mountain West foes. Mississippi has come on strong lately, and a good run in the SEC Tournament could put them in. Saint Louis will be sweating on Sunday, with no games left to play before the field is announced. Seton Hall fell out of the field with their recent performance, but opportunities remain in the Big East Tournament.
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