NCAA Bracketology: Preseason Prediction

The college basketball season is approaching in a hurry. That means it’s time to start thinking about who will end up playing meaningful minutes in March. NCAA bracketology can be an imperfect science at times, especially when you are trying to predict the actions of human beings. However, everyone loves tracking these predictions to see what the “experts” think about the status of their team.

Preseason Bracketology

The Matchups 

Breakdown

In this first bracket, the ACC, Big Ten and SEC each have seven teams. The Big Ten provides the top overall seed with Michigan State, led by Cassius Winston. Even with the loss of Josh Langford, the Spartans should still be the best team in the country. John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats come in as the second overall seed, though Florida should compete for a top seed as well. The Big 12 put five teams in the bracket, led by the third overall seed Kansas Jayhawks. Duke rounds out the projected number one seeds, with Louisville, North Carolina, and Virginia pushing them in a loaded ACC.

ACC

The ACC has a big gap between its upper and middle tier. Florida State should still make it, though they may take a slight step back. North Carolina State is looking to land on the right side of the bubble this year. Syracuse seems to live on the bubble every year, and this season should be no different. Notre Dame is also expected to push for a bid, and they landed in the first four out of this first projection.

Big Ten

The Big Ten also has a Maryland team coming in with high expectations. The Terrapins, led by Anthony Cowan, could push for a top seed. Ohio State and Purdue round out the projected top four of the conference. Michigan and Wisconsin may take steps back, finding themselves closer to double-digit seeds this season. Illinois was very competitive down the stretch last year and should find themselves fighting for a tournament spot this year. Penn State and Iowa will also push to make it, though they just missed the cut line in this projection.

SEC

Auburn and Tennessee round out the top four of the SEC, with both teams looking to build off of last year’s success. First-year coach Nate Oats comes into Tuscaloosa looking to take Alabama to the Big Dance right away. LSU will take a step back this year, but should still be good enough to get in. Kermit Davis will once again have a competitive Ole Miss team that will have the talent to make the cut.

Big East

The Big East is looking to rebound this year, with six teams placed in the bracket. Jay Wright and Villanova will still be the team to beat. However, the conference looks stronger than it did last year. Seton Hall and Xavier seem like safe bets, while Georgetown, Providence, and Marquette will ride the bubble. Creighton should also push for a spot this season.

Big 12

It will be interesting to see how Chris Beard works with yet another fresh roster at Texas Tech after finishing as the national runner up a year ago. Still, the Red Raiders should push for a protected seed. Baylor will also be a contender for a conference title. Shaka Smart may have the hottest seat in the country at Texas. Anything less than a tournament appearance may lead to his exit in Austin. From top to bottom, the conference will be tough, with every team having the potential to push for the bubble. Realistically, five or six bids seem likely.

Pac 12

The Pac 12 placed four teams, led by a rebuilt Oregon squad. Colorado, led by McKinley Wright IV, looks to live up to their preseason hype. Arizona and Washington are also projected in, with Oregon State sitting on the outside looking in. The conference really wants to change its perception from the last few seasons. If it could get five teams in, that would be a start.

American Athletic

The AAC has three fantastic teams, with a fourth that will be in the conversation throughout the season. While many are high on Memphis, Cincinnati should not be overlooked. Both schools will push for a protected seed. Houston may not be as good as they were the last few years, though Kelvin Sampson has surprised everyone before. Wichita State should finally get back to national relevance after a few tough seasons, and they are in as of right now.

Atlantic 10

Virginia Commonwealth has been one of the most dominant programs of the last decade, and they have high expectations coming into this season. After a down year, the Atlantic 10 wants to show that last season was an outlier. Davidson and Dayton should help with that cause, and they will push the Rams in the race for the A10 title.

West Coast Conference

Mark Few has a complete roster overhaul on his hands, which has experts leaving the door open for St. Mary’s to potentially win the conference this year. Both teams have started the season ranked, and both should find themselves sitting comfortably in the bracket this season.

Best of the Rest

The rest of the bids in this version of bracketology come from traditional one-bid leagues. Still, as history has shown, Cinderella can be dangerous. The gap between mid majors and high majors seems to have been closing over the last few years. Teams like Liberty and Belmont are back in this projected bracket, having already won games in March last year.

New Mexico State was close to ending Auburn’s Final Four run in the first round and returns most of that team. Vermont has a player in Anthony Lamb that could get hot and take down a high seed on his own. Finally, East Tennessee State was one of four Southern Conference teams that would have had a legitimate shot at winning a game in the tournament last season. The Buccaneers are the favorites this year in what should be another deep year for the conference.

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