During the 2016-17 NBA season, headlines will be dominated by Kevin Durant and the Golden State Warriors on a daily basis. However, having a super-team doesn’t guarantee a championship; just look at the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers. Everything can change and anything can happen in the NBA. A team can implode, the injury bug could strike, or a team simply might not play to its potential. In this Last Word On Pro Basketball series, we’ll break down which two key factors will determine the fate of each team in the upcoming season.
In this edition, we’ll analyze the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are looking to improve on their best season in franchise history.
Two Key Factors to a Successful Toronto Raptors Season
First Key: Development of Jonas Valanciunas
There is no doubt that the Toronto Raptors have a set identity — elite guard play. DeMar Derozan and Kyle Lowry make up one of the best back-courts in the NBA, perhaps behind only Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors. But to really take the next step, the Raptors will need a big jump from the Lithuanian center Jonas Valanciunas. The burly seven-foot Valanciunas can, at times, be a force to be reckoned with in the low post. That was evident in his dismantling of Hassan Whiteside during the first few games of the 2015 Eastern Conference Semi-finals.
Although that is a very small sample size, it should hopefully be a positive sign of things to come for Valanciunas. Although only 24 years old, Valanciunas is already entering his fifth season in the NBA. Last season, he was held back by a number of injury problems, especially a broken left hand. This, paired with a series of ankle injuries, held Valanciunas to only 60 games played. That can account for his offensive production only increasing by 0.8 points per game – from 12.0 to 12.8 – from the 2014-15 season to last year. Although Valanciunas’ counting stats did not increase dramatically, he continued to be one of the most efficient players in the NBA. He finished in the top ten in two-point shooting percentage, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and overall field goal percentage.
Last Season’s Positive Signs
A really promising part of his development was how Valanciunas finally seemed grow into his massive frame. For the first time, he looked comfortable running up and down the court with fluidity. Oftentimes in his first few years, if Valanciunas did not get consistent offensive touches, he would check out of the game. Last season, that all seemed to change, as Valanciunas became one of the best rebounders in the NBA. He finished in the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage and total rebounding percentage. If this type of productivity continues, and he can stay healthy, expect a big year from Jonas Valanciunas.
Second Key: Staying Healthy
This one may seem a little cliché, because obviously every team wants to remain healthy. But for Toronto, it could very well be the difference between making the team’s first ever NBA Finals appearance or taking a step back. It is no secret that most NBA insiders view the Eastern Conference as a one-horse race. The Cleveland Cavaliers are the defending champions and arguably have the best player of all time on their team. This is why the Raptors signed DeMarre Carroll to a contract worth more than $14 million per year last off-season.
Caroll’s Injuries
Carroll has, in the past, been one of the only players able to disrupt LeBron James. And while the Raptors had a very good team, they did not have a player capable of harassing James. Terrence Ross and Norman Powell are solid defenders but are both extremely undersized against the 6’8″, 250-pound James. And DeRozan might be an elite athlete and a talented scorer, but he’s definitely not a lock-down defender. Unfortunately for Toronto and Carroll, he only appeared in 26 regular season games last year because of a series of knee injuries. And even though he returned for the playoffs, it was evident that he was not near 100 percent. If Carroll can stay healthy, Toronto will have a shot at stopping (or at least slowing down) elite players like James and Paul George.
Lack of Front-court Depth
Another area of concern for Toronto is its front-court. With the loss of Bismack Biyombo, Toronto was forced to use the draft to add depth. The Raptors selected center Jakob Poeltl with the ninth overall pick and Pascal Siakam with the 27th overall pick. Relying on two rookies heavily could prove problematic, and it is certainly something that head coach Dwane Casey does not want to do. But with the injury-prone Valanciunas and Jared Sullinger as the apparent starters, the two young men could be thrust into the lineup quickly. There is not a lot of proven depth in that front-court, so any significant injuries at all could be a major blow to Toronto’s chances of succeeding.
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