After a series of injury setbacks and inconsistent performances, left-hander Matthew Boyd is poised to reestablish himself as a reliable mid-rotation starter on the free agent market. Despite flashes of brilliance, Boyd has struggled to maintain a high level of performance over a full season. His impressive arsenal, featuring a swing-and-miss slider, and ability to generate weak contact, make him an intriguing option for teams seeking to bolster their starting rotations.
Matthew Boyd’s Path to Redemption
Prior to joining the Guardians, Boyd’s 2023 season was off to a sluggish start, marked by a 5.45 ERA in 15 starts. However, the Guardians recognized that Boyd needed to rebuild his arm strength, and a stint in the minor leagues proved beneficial. Over five games and 21 1/3 innings, Boyd refined his form before rejoining the major league roster on August 13. The results were impressive: in eight regular season starts, Boyd went 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, complemented by a 10.4 K/9 rate, 27.7% strikeout percentage, and 1.13 WHIP. Opposing batters were limited to a .213/.283/.347 line in 39 2/3 innings.
Boyd’s success carried over into the postseason, where he yielded just one earned run alongside 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings. Notably, Boyd’s recent injury history has limited his workload; he hasn’t surpassed 185 1/3 innings in a season since 2019, when he was a member of the Detroit Tigers. Over his 10-season career in the majors, Boyd owns a 46-69 record with a 4.85 ERA and 891 strikeouts over 165 starts.
Potential Landing Spots
Cleveland Guardians
Boyd was one of the best stories for the Guardians during the 2024 season. He is an obvious candidate for the Guardians to pursure in free agency this winer. Boyd had an extraordinary impact on the team and they were able to see what he was able to do on the field and pitch meaningful games. He helped elevate their environment and made an impact on those players around him. Cleveland needs to address their starting pitching depth this offseason after finishing in the bottom-five starter ERA in the American League (12th, 4.40 ERA).
Detroit Tigers
Could Boyd make a return to Detroit? After injuries and a 4.92 ERA over eight seasons, Boyd found new life with the Guardians. Despite interst from the Guardians, the Tigers may take a third shot at re-signing him. Boyd’s history with Detroit poses risks, but his improved performance raises the possibility of a favorable reunion. Boyd’s improved performance with the Guardians might alleviate some of the concerns the Tigers had about him in the past. The Tigers have an uncertain starting rotation situation heading into the offseason. The 2025 rotation will be lead by Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson and soon to be joined by Jackson Jobe.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have a clear interest in starting pitching. Boyd is a familar face with Toronto as he broke into the majors with the club in 2015. He made two starts before he was traded to the Tigers for David Price. With the trade deadline deal of Yusei Kikuchi, the Blue Jays find themselves without a left-handed starter. That can create an opportunity for Boyd to provide depth behind Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt.
Market Value and Projections
MLB insiders project Boyd’s market value to be around $3.2 million for the 2024 season. This estimate is based on his recent performance and comparable deals signed by similar pitchers. One notable comparison is Michael Lorenzen‘s one-year, $4.5 million contract from the Texas Rangers. While Boyd’s projected salary is slightly lower, it reflects his potential value as a reliable mid-rotation starter.
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