Sean Manaea was having a strong season through mid-July and was on track to opt out of his contract. He had a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts overall and a 3.09 ERA in 12 starts after lowering his arm slot. That late-season success made it a slam dunk that Manaea would opt into free agency. The decision isn’t a surprise, as he will likely reject the $21.05 million qualifying offer from the New York Mets. Manaea will seek a multi-year contract regardless if he returns to Queens.
Sean Manaea Free Agent Profile
The two-year contract he inked with New York came in his second free-agency foray. Since first reaching the open market in 2022, he’s signed a pair of two-year contracts with opt-outs after year one. Doing this shows Manaea’s willingness to bet on himself and that confidence he’ll land a long-term contract this offseason. Manaea pitched a career-high 182 2/3 innings in the regular season while posting a 3.47 ERA. He issued walks at an 8.5% clip and avoided home runs with a 1.04 HR/9.
Manaea will be entering his age-33 season in 2025 and it’s fair to wonder how he might bounce back after such a big workload. It should be pointed out that Manaea has been durable throughout his nine-year career — eclipsing 144 innings in six of eight full seasons (the shortened 2020 season is not included). There’s also the question of whether Manae’s market will get a bit crazy.
Beyond Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried, the market for free-agent pitching has a steep drop. After those three, there’s the high-upside Walker Buehler, Yusei Kikuchi, and Sean Manaea. With Manaea’s proven track record and ability to eat innings, he could attract interest from several potential suitors.
Potential Suitors
Texas Rangers
The Rangers will need starting pitching with both Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney entering the free-agent market. Pairing someone with Jacob deGrom, and possibly Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, makes Sean Manaea an ideal fit. Acquiring Manaea would provide a significant boost as the Rangers aim to contend in 2025. However, they will need to be prepared to invest financially.
New York Mets
The prospect of re-signing Sean Manaea has sparked debate among Mets fans, with some concerns lingering about his long-term performance consistency. If the Mets decide to make a significant financial commitment to Manaea, it could have a ripple effect on their pitching rotation. Moreover, the terms of his potential deal could set a precedent for future free-agent signings within the organization.
Complicating matters further is the uncertainty surrounding Luis Severino, who, like Manaea, is expected to decline the qualifying offer, leaving the Mets to navigate a pair of critical pitching decisions.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are actively exploring various free-agent options to strengthen their starting rotation. Max Fried and Blake Snell are considered ideal targets for acquiring a top-tier starter. Additionally, pursuing Sean Manaea as a primary rotation option could help the team achieve its goals. While Manaea may not be on the same level as Corbin Burnes, the best-case scenario for the Orioles would involve re-signing Burnes and adding an arm like Manaea to the roster. Although it’s uncertain how feasible this plan is, stranger things have happened.
Market Value Projection
Sportrac projects that Manaea will land a four-year, $64 million contract in free agency. This projected deal bears a small resemblance to the four-year, $80 million contract Eduardo Rodríguez signed with Arizona Diamondbacks. Notably, both pitchers have demonstrated the ability to log significant innings while maintaining a mid-rotation level of performance. The similarity in contract terms suggests that Manaea’s market value is closely aligned with that of Rodríguez. If Manaea indeed lands a contract in this range, it would represent a substantial investment by the signing team, underscoring the high demand for dependable starting pitchers in the open market.
Main Photo: © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
