Betting Batter Props: August 9th

Tuesday night was good for some baseball, and it came through in more ways than one. Kyle Tucker and the Houston Astros, on the road, rallied in the 9th inning against the best closer in baseball, Eduardo Rodriguez silenced the Minnesota Twins’ bats for seven shutout innings, and Julio Rodriguez came up with one of the most exciting home run robberies this year.

.@JRODshow44 just fooled EVERYONE 🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/2rL2a1mheD

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) August 9, 2023

On the betting side, a 1-2 night is disappointing but has highlighted a key trend for us that will play more into today: batter props. The Chicago Cubs were able to win on the road in Queens, beating the New York Mets 3-2, but could not get to starter Carlos Carrasco like teams were in his previous starts. In our other loss, Texas Rangers’ Max Scherzer twirled a gem in Oakland, going seven innings and only allowing one run, but was unable to get his strikeout pitch working as he finished his six. Cincinnati Reds’ Nick Senzel gave us a bit of our money back when he smacked a 1-2 slider from Miami Marlins’ Braxton Garrett for his ninth double of the season, hitting our o0.5H and o1.5 TB in one at-bat.

An awesome day of baseball waits for us on Wednesday, LWOS has a three-batter parlay featuring a couple of the league’s hottest bats.

MIAMI MARLINS VS. CINCINNATI REDS: JOEY VOTTO o0.5 HR (+225)

The first game on Wednesday features a homecoming in Miami Marlins’ Johnny Cueto returning to Cincinnati to face the team he broke into the league and spent eight years with before leaving for the Kansas City Royals. He’ll be facing a former teammate and current friend Joey Votto, who has been hitting home runs for fun in recent weeks.

Votto’s last four hits have been long balls and has gone yard in each of the last two games he has started. In his last 22 hits, 10 have gone over the fence and 10 of Votto’s 13 home runs have come off of right-handed pitching this year.

Cueto has only appeared in five games this year after dealing with an injury and has been serviceable for Miami in their playoff push. His HR/9 rate would stand to be his career high and he has already given up five HRs in 22 IP. For reference, he only gave up eight home runs in 156 IP in 2011.

ATLANTA BRAVES V PITTSBURGH PIRATES: BRYAN REYNOLDS o0.5 H (-250)

Few players have been hotter than Pittsburgh Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds over the past couple of weeks. Last night, he went 2/4 with a home run and a walk and has been slashing .322/.385/.644 over his last 15 games.

Atlanta Braves’ Max Fried first start back from injury went just as well as you could’ve hoped: 6 IP, 8ks, 0 er. Fried is starting in Pittsburgh today and has had troubles at PNC Park in the past, his 6.35 ERA in 17 IP is his highest mark in any ballpark and has surrendered three home runs.

Fried’s most thrown pitch, the four-seasm fastball, is a pitch Reynolds is slugging .471 against and has a 57% hard-hit rate. Taking the Reynolds over on hits and Reynolds total base prop at 01.5 (+130) are solid plays, too.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: FREDDIE FREEMAN o1.5 TB (-115)

Los Angeles Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman has been staking his claim in the NL NVP race not only in recent weeks, but for the whole season. He is currently 3rd in WAR (1st in offensive WAR), ranks top 10 in BA, OBP, SLG, hits, doubles, RBIs, and is in the top 1% in XBA, XSLG, and WOBA. In the last month, Freeman has slashed .410/.478/.754.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly has been dominant most of the season but has worked around trouble against the Dodgers this year. On the season, he has given up nine hits and eight walks in 9.1 IP and has a career ERA of 5.45 against the Dodgers. He has given up 87 hits in 72.2 IP and a WHIP of 1.64.

Merrill Kelly leans on his four-seamer and change-up a majority of the time, around 52% this season. Hitters have seen the four-seasm well, hitting at a .259 vs. a .142 against the change-up. Freeman has hit the four-season all season, going .400 with a hard-hit % of almost 50. If he does see the change-up, he’s been able to handle it well this year and has hit .439 against them.

We’ll play these three picks for 2U at +750 – don’t forget to tail and BOL!