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Scherzer to the Rangers: Fantasy Baseball Impact

The recent announcement of Max Scherzer’s trade to the Texas Rangers has sent shockwaves through the Major League Baseball community. Yet, amid the debates and fan excitement, one question lingers for those invested in the world of fantasy baseball: Could this move be a genuine game-changer?

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As high-profile trades go, this one carries more intrigue than most. Scherzer, a future hall-of-famer with a track record of excellence, joining the Rangers presents an intriguing set of possibilities, especially for fantasy league participants. In this article, we will take a level-headed approach to assess the potential impact of Scherzer’s move to Texas. From examining his new team dynamics to how the shift may affect his stats, we’ll provide a thoughtful perspective on what fantasy baseball owners need to know. Join us as we explore whether Scherzer to the Rangers is indeed a game-changing moment, or if caution and tempered expectations are in order.

Scherzer to the Rangers: A Game-Changer in Fantasy Baseball?

Difficulty of Remaining Schedule

Scherzer’s 2022 ERA of 2.89 may be hard to replicate, but certain factors could favor him in Texas. According to Tankathon, the Rangers’ remaining schedule is more favorable than that of the Mets‘. Pre-trade, Scherzer and the Mets would have faced teams with an average winning percentage of .518, including challenging series against the Orioles, Rangers, and Phillies, and two against the Braves. Post-trade, Scherzer’s opponents have an average winning percentage of .491, with the Blue Jays and the Astros among the tougher matchups.

  • “Difficult” Remaining Games for the Mets (29): 7x Braves, 3x Orioles, 3x Rangers, 7x Phillies, 3x Reds, and 6x Marlins
  • “Easy” Remaining Games for the Mets (14): 3x Royals, 4x Nationals, 3x Pirates, and 4x Cardinals
  • “Difficult” Remaining Games for the Rangers (19): 4x Blue Jays, 3x Astros, 3x Brewers, 3x Red Sox, 3x Giants, and 3x Marlins
  • “Easy” Remaining Games for the Rangers (14): 6x Athletics, 3x White Sox, 3x Mets, and 2x Padres

Ball Park Factors

The move from Citi Field to Globe Life Field is another essential aspect to consider in evaluating Scherzer’s trade to the Rangers. Both stadiums have unique characteristics that can influence a pitcher’s performance, and understanding these nuances is vital for fantasy baseball owners.

1. Home Runs (HR)

Globe Life Field: 14% above league average

Citi Field: 3% below league average

Analysis: The significant difference in home run factors between the two parks could be a concern for Scherzer. Globe Life Field’s tendency to boost home runs may lead to an increase in Scherzer’s home run rate, potentially affecting his ERA and WHIP.  Considering Scherzer has given up the fifth most home runs so far, while only pitching 107 2/3 innings, there could be a noticeable uptick in home runs surrendered in the second half for the ace.

2. Batting Average (BA) and Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)

Globe Life Field: BA at league average, wOBA 2% above

Citi Field: BA 6% below league average, wOBA 5% below

Analysis: The more hitter-friendly environment in Texas might lead to more hits and a higher on-base percentage against Scherzer. This could translate to more runs scored and a higher workload per inning, affecting his overall efficiency and stamina.

3. Ballpark Dimensions and Physical Properties

Globe Life Field: Known for its retractable roof and climate-controlled environment, which can lead to more consistent hitting conditions.

Citi Field: Often influenced by weather and wind patterns, potentially favoring pitchers.

Analysis: Scherzer may need to adjust his pitching strategy to account for the more controlled environment in Texas, where hitters may find it easier to make solid contact. One metric that is quite reliant on ballpark dimensions is hits that go for triples. EV Analytics reports Citi Field as being 60% of the league average for triples compared to Globe Life Field’s 93% of the league average. Doubles follow the same pattern. Citi Field sits at 89% of the league average for doubles. Put simply, it hinders doubles by 11%. Comparatively, Globe Life Field boosts doubles by two percent.

Offense & Bullpen

There is no doubt that Scherzer has just walked into one of the most elite offenses in the Texas Rangers. Since June 1st, the Rangers rank third in runs scored with 260. In the case of the Mets, they rank 22nd with 206 runs. While his record of 9-4 suggests that he hasn’t faced many difficulties picking up wins in his starts, it will certainly be easier to rack up the wins when his offense is scoring nearly six runs per game.

Despite the upgrade in offense, Scherzer will have to deal with a weaker bullpen in Texas. From June 1st onwards, the Rangers’ ERA of 5.22 is more than one run higher than the 4.12 ERA the Mets possess. Perhaps the addition of Scherzer will be able to alleviate some of the pressure placed on the bullpen and allow for more strategic deployment of bullpen arms. One can only hope that the high-octane Texas offense will be able to score more runs than the bullpen surrenders during Scherzer starts.

Last Words

Max Scherzer’s trade to the Texas Rangers presents a complex set of challenges and opportunities. The shift from the more pitcher-friendly Citi Field to the hitter-friendly Globe Life Field will likely require adjustments in his approach and may influence his statistical performance. Fantasy baseball owners should approach this move with a nuanced understanding, recognizing both Scherzer’s proven excellence and the potential impact of the new ballpark. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that this move to the Rangers lights a fire under Scherzer as Texas keeps chipping away at their first postseason berth since 2016.

Ultimately, Scherzer’s fantasy value should not deviate much from the value placed upon him whilst he was a member of the Mets organization. Fantasy owners should likely expect more wins from Scherzer as a result of having a comparatively easier remaining schedule as well as being placed in front of arguably the most lethal offense in the majors. However, it is absolutely worth mentioning that Globe Life Field is a far more challenging ballpark for pitchers than the home of the Mets, Citi Field. Fantasy managers should also be cognizant that Scherzer’s opponent’s batting average and quality of contact are likely going to rise somewhat.

Main photo credits:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Max Scherzer

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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