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Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 18th

fantasy baseball July 18th

Welcome to the fantasy baseball pitching report for July 18th, where we dive into the fascinating world of baseball’s most captivating element: pitching. Each day, we document intriguing patterns and metrics, such as spin rate, velocity, and pitch mix that presented themselves throughout the previous day. But we don’t stop there. Our reports go beyond the numbers, offering fantasy pitching analysis when certain pitchers deserve more or less attention. Whether you’re seeking a competitive edge, the next breakout star, or daily pitching refreshers, these reports have you covered.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 18th

Aaron Nola (7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 98 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Aaron Nola continued his run of strong performances by throwing 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball against the Brewers. Not only was Nola able to work deep into his 20th start of the campaign, but he also managed to generate 18 whiffs on the night. His knuckle-curve was on point in Tuesday’s start amassing nine whiffs and an elite 44% CSW. But the curveball wasn’t the only pitch that Nola threw with confidence tonight. The sinker, changeup, and cutter all possessed CSW values of 38% or higher and combined for nine whiffs. In fact, the only pitch that was not on for Nola was the 4-seamer. His fastball was hit hard at an average exit velocity of 94.5 mph, worked zero whiffs, and only earned a 13% CSW. While Nola’s overall average exit velocity wasn’t super impressive in this start at 90.6 mph, he was able to keep more than half of the balls in play on the ground.

At the completion of this start, Nola ranks second in innings pitched, is tied for 15th in strikeouts, and has the 12th-lowest WHIP amongst qualified starting pitchers. While the 2023 season hasn’t been the most consistent of Nola’s storied career, he has managed to increase his strikeout rate and decrease his WHIP every month up to this point.

Fantasy Analysis

While his overall lack of consistency can be extremely frustrating for a pitcher of his caliber, it seems like he could be turning a corner. In addition to improving in the previously mentioned fields, Nola has also decreased his xFIP each month until now. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports, the numbers suggest that Nola is finding his rhythm and will likely gain consistency. If you’re a Nola owner, you have to hold onto him. From this start alone he likely does not have anywhere close to enough value to sell him off. If you don’t have him, now could be one of the last opportunities to buy “low-ish”. There are likely a lot of owners wanting to cut bait with Nola after this great start. If this is the situation in your league, take advantage of it as it’s likely not a fluke.

Nathan Eovaldi (6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 93 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Nathan Eovaldi picked up his 11th quality start of the 2023 season against the struggling Tampa Bay Rays. Eovaldi masterfully evaded hard contact in Tuesday’s start as he worked an average exit velocity of only 85.6 mph. This figure is down from his already-decent seasonal average exit velocity of 87.9 mph. Despite only surrendering two hits during the outing, Eovaldi was far from dominant. He struggled with command as his splitter and curveball only found the zone a combined 29.7% of the time. The next metric that sticks out on his stat sheet is the complete lack of strikeouts. In July, his strikeout percentage has fallen beneath 15% while his walk rate climbed to approximately 15%. The most concerning aspect of tonight’s start for me was the sustained dip in velocity:

    • 4-Seam Fastball: 2.4 mph decrease
    • Splitter: 1.2 mph decrease
    • Curveball: 1.6 mph decrease
    • Cutter: 1.9 mph decrease

Fantasy Analysis

As long as Eovaldi keeps generating an average exit velocity below 86 mph, he will continue to be an excellent tool in all fantasy teams. The problem is, relying on weak contact and few punch-outs leaves little room for error as far as the world of fantasy baseball goes. Additionally, I think there is a justified reason for concern regarding Eovaldi’s consistently decreased velocity from his season average. A two-and-a-half mile per-hour decrease on his fastball is massive considering his yearly average of 95.5 mph and his injury history. As long as the downtick in velocity is not representative of an injury, I have confidence that he continues to serve as a wicked innings-eater who racks up wins on one of the best teams in baseball. Despite the confidence I have in the righty, I do not think this is the right time to buy up shares of Eovaldi in any fantasy format.

Bailey Ober (6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 90 Pitches)

Pitching Report

Going up against the Mariners, Bailey Ober locked in his sixth consecutive quality start and his 10th on the 2023 campaign. Going into the start, Ober was in the seventh percentile for 4-seam fastball Zone% as he only threw the pitch in the strike zone 42.8% of the time. In this start, Ober smashed the zone 58% of the time with the pitch. Despite surrendering three hits on the pitch, Ober’s fastball was decent tonight generating six whiffs and a 30% CSW. Where Ober really made his money tonight was the changeup where he earned 8 whiffs and an extraordinary 48% CSW on 25 pitches. Finally, the Twins righty was able to limit Seattle batters to a minimal 86.8 mph average exit velocity.

Fantasy Analysis

I am extremely high on Bailey Ober. Coming into Tuesday’s start, Ober ranked sixth in ERA, 12th in xERA, and third in WHIP. Furthermore, he is ranked in the top 32 pitchers in BB%, swinging strike rate, and hard contact. Despite these mind-blowing metrics, it feels like Ober is seldom spoken about. While the Twin’s offense will likely struggle to help him rack up wins, his ability to pitch into the sixth inning while possessing a near 25% strikeout rate gives him more than enough fantasy value. I am certainly buying shares of Bailey Ober at this time. All it could take is one high-strikeout outing for Ober’s name to be the envy of all fantasy baseball managers. The only potential concern with Ober is whether or not the Twins will consider partially shutting him down at some point in the second half as he has already surpassed his 2022 innings count.

Main photo credits:

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Players mentioned:

Aaron Nola, Nathan Eovaldi, Bailey Ober

Jackson Wessels

Jackson Wessels

Despite picking up the sport of baseball recently, Jackson has been infatuated with looking deeper into player performances with the use of statistics and analytics. A student at the University of British Columbia, he spends his free time away from studying thinking, talking, and watching a variety of sports.

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