For the first time since coming back from the break, we were victorious by a wide margin! Going 4-2 on the day, and only missing two of the prop bets is a surefire way to rack up some units. With an overall winning record of 62-59, but down a total of 1.56 units, let’s get all the way back in the green today. Here are our picks for baseball bets on July 19th.
Baseball Bets for July 19th
The Headliner: Padres @ Blue Jays
In the best pitching matchup of a day full of weak pitching matchups, the San Diego Padres look to claim the series victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. On the mound for the Padres will be Yu Darvish. Through 16 starts, Darvish has a 4.65 ERA across 91 innings with 98 strikeouts and a 1.26 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 6.08 ERA across 37 innings with 41 strikeouts and a 1.46 WHIP. Darvish has been abysmal on the road. In eight road starts, Yu carries a 5.52 ERA across 44 innings with 44 strikeouts and a 1.32 WHIP. After taking game one of the series in blowout fashion, the Blue Jays will be looking to tee off in their own right today.
The Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios. In 19 starts, Berrios has a 3.41 ERA across 113 1/3 innings with 105 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 3.00 ERA across 42 innings with 37 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP. Berrios has been much better at home. In eight home starts, he carries a 2.83 ERA across 47 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. This battle of the groundball pitchers will see each of them trying to keep the ball in the yard. However, only one of them can be victorious. This series will not be decided until getaway day.
The Play: Blue Jays ML (-120) – 1.5U
Bonus Team Total Bet: Blue Jays Over 4.5 (-105) – 0.5U
The Rookie vs the Seasoned Vet: Diamondbacks @ Braves
In game two of this series that saw these teams combine for 29 runs in game one, the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Atlanta Braves. On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be rookie Ryne Nelson. In 19 starts, Nelson has a 4.98 ERA across 99 1/3 innings with 68 strikeouts and a 1.44 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.30 ERA across 37 2/3 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP. Nelson has been much better on the road. In 10 road starts, he carries a 2.68 ERA across 57 innings with 44 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. Both sides generated a ton of offense in yesterday’s game. However, on paper, only one side has the capability of doing it again.
The Braves will send veteran Charlie Morton to the mound. In 18 starts, he has a 3.20 ERA across 104 innings with 115 strikeouts and a 1.36 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 2.52 ERA across 39 1/3 innings with 43 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP. Morton has not been as sharp in home starts. In nine of such starts, he carries a 3.55 ERA across 50 2/3 innings with 58 strikeouts and a 1.30 WHIP. This will be his second start of the season against the Diamondbacks. In his first, he allowed three runs, all earned, in seven innings on six hits, two walks, and struck out nine. Expect a better outing from Morton this time. And expect Morton to pick up his second win since the break, which would only be the Braves’ second overall in that span.
The Play: Braves ML (-225) – 1U
Bonus Team Total: Diamondbacks First Five Under 2.5 (-190) – 0.5U
Series Victory At Home: Brewers @ Phillies
The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Philadelphia Phillies after dropping game one of their three-game set. On the mound for the Brewers will be Colin Rea. In 16 games (15 starts), Rea has a 4.71 ERA across 80 1/3 innings with 67 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP. Over his last seven (all starts), he has a 4.50 ERA across 38 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. Rea has performed better on the road. In seven road games (all starts), he carries a 4.08 ERA across 39 2/3 innings with 27 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP. Rea is not a strikeout pitcher. This, plus his WHIP of 1.22, could prove detrimental in the Brewers’ search for a victory.
The Phillies will send lefty Cristopher Sanchez to the mound. In six starts, Sanchez has a 3.26 ERA across 30 1/3 innings with 27 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. Sanchez has been worse at home this season. In four home starts, he carries a 4.43 ERA across 20 1/3 innings with 20 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP. The groundball pitcher will need his defense to continue to bail him out tonight. His season FIP sits at 4.15, 0.89 runs higher than his ERA. An implosion for Sanchez may soon be coming, but he has also performed well against better lineups than the one the Brewers possess.
The Play: Phillies ML (-175) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs (+217) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Yu Darvish, Jose Berrios, Ryne Nelson, Charlie Morton, Colin Rea, Cristopher Sanchez, Kyle Schwarber
