We are off to a great start for the week. Going 4-2 yesterday on our plays and being up 3.26 units for the week is a great foundation to build upon. Let’s dive in and see what our baseball bets for July 4th could be.
Baseball Bets for July 4th
The Headliner: Angels @ Padres
The Los Angeles Angels look to bounce back after dropping game one of this three-game series 10-3 to the San Diego Padres. On the mound for the Angels will be Shohei Ohtani. Through 16 starts this season, Ohtani has a 3.02 ERA across 95.1 innings with 127 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. Over his last seven starts, he has a 2.76 ERA across 42.1 innings with 56 strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP. What Shohei does at the mound or at the plate is always incredible to watch, and on days that he is the starting pitcher, we have the privilege to do both.
The Padres counter with Joe Musgrove. Through 12 starts this season, Musgrove has a 3.80 ERA across 66.1 innings with 61 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP. Over his last seven, he holds a 2.13 ERA across 42.1 innings with 36 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. After these teams combined for 13 runs in yesterday’s game, the early game should see a low-scoring affair.
[metabet_core_game_tile query=”530154″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
The Play: Angels ML – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: First Five Total Under 4.5 – 0.5U
Old Friends Meet Again: Phillies @ Rays
The Philadelphia Phillies fly south for the winter to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The pitching matchup for this game pits one (so far) lifelong Philly against another pitcher that spent the formative years of his career as a Philly. On the mound for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola. Through 17 starts and 105.2 innings, Nola holds a 4.51 ERA with 102 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP. Over his last seven starts, he holds a 4.81 ERA across 43 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Nola has been much worse on the road than at home this season. 10 of his starts have come away from Philadelphia. In those starts, he holds a 5.34 ERA across 60.2 innings with 53 strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP.
The Rays will be countering with a righty of their own in Zach Eflin. Through 15 starts, Eflin holds a 3.29 ERA across 90.1 innings with 91 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Over his last seven, he holds a 3.12 ERA over 43.1 innings with 39 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP. Eflin is a much better pitcher at home than on the road. In eight home starts this season, he holds a 2.17 ERA across 49.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 0.89 WHIP. This game could get ugly, fast.
[metabet_core_game_tile query=”530146″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
The Play: Rays ML – 1U
Bonus Total Bet: Rays First Five Over 2.5 – 1.5U
The Fireworks Show: Pirates @ Dodgers
The Pittsburgh Pirates look to rebound after dropping game one of their four-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the mound for the Buccos will be Luis Ortiz. Through 10 appearances this season (nine starts), Ortiz has a 4.11 ERA across 50.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and a 1.65 WHIP. Over his last seven appearances (six starts), Ortiz has a 4.15 ERA across 34.2 innings with 23 strikeouts and a 1.64 WHIP. This game does not bode well for Ortiz. Ortiz has a BB/9 of 4.47 on the year and a HR/9 of 1.43. He will be facing an offense that ranks second in baseball in walks with 345, and also second in baseball in home runs with 131.
The Dodgers will send rookie Emmet Sheehan to the mound. Through three career starts, Sheehan has a 2.65 ERA across 17 innings with 12 strikeouts and a 0.82 WHIP. The level of competition that Sheehan has faced thus far in the Majors has been sporadic. His debut came against the San Francisco Giants at home, he then faced the Houston Astros (also at home), and in his last start, he experienced the Coors Field effect for the first time. The Pirates fall somewhere between the Giants and the Colorado Rockies.
[metabet_core_game_tile query=”530147″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
The Play: Dodgers ML – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Dodgers First Five Over 3.5 – 1U
Main photo credits:
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Shohei Ohtani, Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Luis Ortiz, Emmet Sheehan
