The Boston Red Sox are about as capricious as a team can get. One week, they’re winning six in a row, the next they are losing five out of six.
Part of the inconsistencies come from being a young team, but a lot of their issues stem from a depleted pitching staff that currently requires manager Alex Cora to repeatedly utilize bullpen games every four or five days.
Without much stability, the Red Sox have relied on Brayan Bello and James Paxton to pick up the slack. The former is top 20 among qualified pitchers in WAR and fourth in ERA since May 1st. The latter ranks in the top 10 for K/9 among pitchers who’ve pitched at least 50 innings since that same date.
Outside of those two, the Sox regular starters have an ERA of 5.36 in 2023, and holistically the rotation sits in the bottom 10 of the league in that same category. This is not an ideal look for any organization with playoff aspirations.
Red Sox Trade Deadline Outlook
Should the Sox Buy or Sell?
The Sox currently sit in last place in a crowded AL East and are five games back from the third wild card.
This isn’t necessarily an insurmountable deficit, primarily since two teams ahead of them, the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels, feature their best players facing elongated injuries. But one has to wonder if buying at the deadline is still worth it with Boston’s pitching staff underperforming this much. Will they just say screw it and bite the bullet for this year, or, should they try and compete for a playoff spot by making a couple of key moves at the trade deadline?
The #Yankes gave everyone a shot to gain ground when Aaron Judge was injured June 3, leading the final wild-card spot by 2 1/2 games.
The Yankees went 12-13, and still have a 2-game lead for last spot:
Mariners: 12-13
Red Sox: 13-14
Blue Jays: 13-13
Orioles: 13-12
Angels: 15-12— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 4, 2023
Past reports have expressed that it is unclear whether the Sox will be buyers or sellers at this year’s deadline. In the past, Cora has demurred on the idea of tanking until 2024, which is a position most managers and coaches typically take. But GM Chaim Bloom reportedly wants to embrace a future run after 2023, which is another perspective I understand.
Certainly, the Sox have an intriguing set of older players on team-friendly contracts, which may help them in a trade situation.
Although older vets like Justin Turner and Adam Duvall have been invaluable to Cora’s squad this year, young studs like Jarren Duran, Bello, and Triston Casas continuously show signs of bright career paths.
Duran, who currently ranks top five in the league in doubles, undoubtedly deserves to take Duvall’s spot in center field for the foreseeable future, while Casas’ recent improvements at the plate and stature as a highly touted prospect mean Turner may find more value elsewhere.
Pitching Needs Help
To avoid redundancies at some of these positions, the Red Sox must offload some veterans for better pitching.
Recent reports indicate that the Sox are interested in moving Duvall, Nick Pivetta, and utility player Enrique Hernandez for something, which makes sense since Pivetta and Hernandez have struggled in their respective positions (plus, Trevor Story will soon be back to cover Hernandez at shortstop). It remains to be seen, however, what type of value these guys would bring.
The Sox have called up Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy to supplement the injuries of Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Chris Sale, but more surely can be done to stabilize a starting pitching disaster. The trade deadline is a good time to improve this area.
The White Sox Could Be a Good (and Maybe the Only Viable) Partner
One team to watch as a potential trade partner is the Chicago White Sox, who already have experience trading with Boston when the Chris Sale deal took place. Reports indicate that the White Sox will sell since they are 6.5 games back in the feeble AL Central.
The one player to keep an eye on in Chicago is starting pitcher Lucas Giolito. The 28-year-old isn’t an ace (he is about middle-of-the-pack in WAR) but he has been the most consistent pitcher on a struggling White Sox team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in starting pitching. Since May 1, Giolito ranks in the top 20 in K/9 and carries a 3.53 ERA overall in 17 starts. He finished top 10 in Cy Young in the past and would already be one of Boston’s best starters if traded.
But who would the Red Sox give up to acquire him? Well, believe it or not, outside of Luis Robert, the White Sox have some outfield issues. They just recently called up Oscar Colás, the number two prospect in the organization, to play outfield, but his .211 average in his first 25 games forced the organization to option him back to Triple-A for a short while. Maybe the Sox offer Duvall in a package and sell it as a way for the 34-year-old to be a mentor for the young Colás until he finds his groove.
Outside of That?
Not much. Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Alex Wood are three big names in trade talks, but all of them are 30 and older and seem like counterintuitive options for Boston.
As much as I’d love a Rodriguez reunion specifically, it doesn’t make much sense for the Sox to surrender value to a team for a guy they declined to re-sign in the first place.
Additionally, a lot of teams that were supposed to be bad, like the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds, are now good and therefore won’t sell. And then the teams that are surprisingly bad, like the St. Louis Cardinals, do not have an enticing selection of hurlers. It’s a weak deadline for starting pitching, which isn’t ideal for the Sox.
Maybe if the Giolito trade doesn’t work, the front office decides to pack up shop until 2024. Maybe they wait until the offseason, when the selection is more robust, to make a starting pitching free-agency splash. Or, maybe they try and go all in this year by offering a package for some starting pitcher on an expiring contract (Aaron Nola possibly?).
The rumors around Duvall, Hernandez, and Pivetta are making things a tad clearer, but what the Sox do at the deadline is still opaque. One thing is for certain, if they do make a trade, they need to make sure it does not negatively impact their future.
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Main photo credits:
Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Brayan Bello, James Paxton, Justin Turner, Adam Duvall, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Nick Pivetta, Enrique Hernandez, Trevor Story, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Chris Sale, Lucas Giolito, Oscar Colas, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Alex Wood, Aaron Nola
