East Carolina University’s Gavin Williams was eligible for the 2020 Draft, but he was not selected after the abbreviated junior campaign. However, he could be the first American Conference player selected in 2021. The school has produced several big leaguers in its history with the most recent being, Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman was drafted in the first round of the 2014 Draft. Williams won’t go that high but he is a good bet to go in this year’s compressed draft.
Gavin Williams 2021 MLB Draft Profile
Williams has improved his stock in the more normal college season and is currently 42nd on MLB’s big board.. He is a mammoth 6’6″, 240-pound right-handed pitcher originally Fayetteville, North Carolina. The Tampa Bay Rays selected Williams in the 30th round of the 2017 Draft but he chose to attend college instead. He has been a reliable bullpen arm for the ECU Pirates despite battling a finger injury to start the 2020 season and the layoff from the pandemic.
It is clear that the time away has benefitted the veteran reliever as Williams has dominated. He has largely been a starter in 2021 and looks comfortable in the role based on the numbers. He has posted a sparkling 1.99 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings. Williams’ strikeouts are up significantly from his last full year in 2019 with a lower walks per nine. Every metric paints a picture of someone who has stepped up and could be a future MLB starting option.
Strengths
Williams has a four-pitch repertoire featuring a fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. The fastball is easily his best pitch. It is graded as a 65/80 and sits between 94-97 while occasionally touching 100. The curve comes at batters in the upper-70s and is a nice breaking pitch with room to improve. It is now equal to his changeup and also rates as a 55-grade pitch that plays off the fastball effectively. Williams has added a slider, but it is graded as only a 50 and needs more refinement.
It is also extremely promising to see that Williams’ peripherals improved despite the shift towards longer outings. It would have been easy to see walks remain above 4.0 per nine with average strikeout numbers as a starter, but that didn’t happen. That seems to reflect a strong work ethic despite the lost year for the pandemic.
Weaknesses
While the move into East Carolina’s rotation is promising, Williams is still very inexperienced compared to his work as a reliever. His drafting team can certainly try him in the minors as a rotation piece, but he could just as easily end up as a strong bullpen option thanks to the strong fastball/changeup combination.
MLB Comp
We considered Lucas Giolito as Williams’ potential comparable last year if he added a slider and he did just that. The current Chicago White Sox pitcher remains one of the team’s better arms in 2021 with a 3.81 ERA, 4.22 FIP, and 96 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings. It isn’t as dominant as either 2019 or 2020, but very few will sneeze at his overall profile. It would be quite something to see Williams reach a similar ceiling as a taller hurler with as many pitches as he throws.
Players mentioned: Gavin Williams, Jeff Hoffman, Lucas Giolito
Main Photo: Embed from Getty Images
