The Tampa Bay Rays already addressed their biggest need this off-season when they acquired catcher Mike Zunino from the Seattle Mariners. The roster lacks any obvious holes now, but with their projected payroll for 2019 currently around $36 million, Tampa Bay should be exploring upgrades.
The small-budget team is not going to tie themselves up with expensive, long-term contracts, but they should be interested in potential impact players who could be available on short-term deals. Two of those free agents are third baseman Josh Donaldson and designated hitter Nelson Cruz.
Free Agent Sluggers Make Sense for Tampa Bay
Josh Donaldson
2018 stats: 52 games, .246/.352/.449, 8 home runs, 23 RBI, 117 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Right from spring training, it was clear that something was not quite right with the 2015 AL MVP as Donaldson was having trouble making throws from third base. The Toronto Blue Jays tried to avoid having him go on the disabled list by having him DH for a while and hoping his shoulder would heal. After 12 games, they conceded that he needed to go on the DL. After missing a little more than three weeks, Donaldson returned in early May. However, after less than a month, he had to go back on the DL when calf issues that plagued him for much of 2017 resurfaced. Little did anyone know at the time that he had played his final game for the Blue Jays.
Donaldson didn’t look right even when he was on the field for Toronto in 2018, hitting just .234/.333/.423 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 36 games. He spent more than three months on the DL with his calf injury. During that time he was traded to the Cleveland Indians. When Donaldson finally returned in the middle of September, he looked much better. In 16 games for the Indians he hit .280/.400/.520 with three home runs and seven RBI, with as many walks (10) as strikeouts.
While it was encouraging to see him finally get back on the field late in the year and look somewhat like his old self, 2018 was still pretty much a lost season for Donaldson. But let’s not forget how good he was over the previous five seasons. From 2013 to 2017, Donaldson was worth 34.3 fWAR, second among all position players behind only Mike Trout. He is a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate. Durability has not previously been an issue for him, either, as he played in at least 155 games in each season from 2013 to 2016.
What’s the price?
The fact that Donaldson missed most of 2018 has led people to wonder if he may take a one-year contract somewhere to try to rebuild his value and hit free agency again next year. MLB Trade Rumors predicts him to a sign a one-year, $20-million contract. The problem with that is Donaldson would be a 34-year-old free agent next year. No matter how good and healthy Donaldson ends up being next season, his age would make it difficult to get a lucrative, long-term contract.
Imagine the Rays offered Donaldson a three-year, $60-million contract with an opt out after the first season. That would give him the option to test free agency again next year if he has a really good season. He would also have a two-year safety net to rely on. Given Donaldson’s upside, that contract would be a worthwhile risk for the Rays. If he did not have the injury issues this past season, Tampa Bay would not even be a potential destination for Donaldson. Similarly, Wilson Ramos would not have been an option for the Rays in free agency two years ago if he had not suffered a torn ACL late in the 2016 season. The Rays should once again take advantage of an opportunity to sign a potential All-Star who they would not have been able to afford if not for health question marks.
The incumbent at third base is Matt Duffy who had big shoes to fill this past season. He stepped in as Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman following the Evan Longoria trade. Duffy put his own injury issues behind him after missing all of 2017 and much of 2016, and put together a solid 2018 for the Rays. In 132 games, he hit .294/.361/.366, good for a 106 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR. Duffy, however, offers almost no power, having hit just four home runs. Adding power is something that should be a focus for the Rays, as their 150 home runs in 2018 were the fourth fewest in Major League Baseball. Donaldson averaged about 33 home runs per season from 2013 to 2017, including a 2017 campaign where he hit 33 in just 113 games. Duffy is fine, and it will not be the end of the world if he’s Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman again next year. However, Donaldson could be a rather significant upgrade.
Nelson Cruz
2018 stats: 144 games, .256/.342/.509, 37 home runs, 97 RBI, 134 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR
If the Rays are looking to add power, well, guess what? The man who’s hit more home runs (203) than any other player in Major League Baseball over the last five seasons is a free agent. Despite Cruz’s continued mashing, his age (38) and the fact that he’s almost strictly a DH at this stage of his career mean two things. One, that he’s going to have to take a short-term contract. And two, that he’s almost certainly going to have to sign with an American League team.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts Cruz will sign a two-year, $30-million contract. Cruz’s 2018 numbers were actually the worst of his four seasons in Seattle, as he posted wRC+ figures of 158, 148, and 147 from 2015-17. Perhaps the slight dip in his numbers in 2018 was finally the start of Cruz’s decline, but as long as his decline continues to be a gradual one and he doesn’t fall off a cliff, his bat should continue to be an asset in the middle of the order for another two years.
Signing Cruz would likely spell the end of C.J. Cron‘s time in Tampa Bay. Cron had a nice season, hitting .253/.323/.493 with 30 home runs and 74 RBI in 140 games, good for a 122 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. Like Duffy, Cron is not someone the Rays obviously need to upgrade on, but that doesn’t mean they should not upgrade if they can.
Why they’re affordable
Let’s say the MLB Trade Rumors predictions are accurate. Donaldson would sign a contract that pays him $20 million next season, and Cruz would sign one that pays him $15 million. That would almost double the Rays’ projected payroll, bringing it from $36 million to $71 million. However, if Donaldson and Cruz are signed, then Duffy and Cron will likely be traded or non-tendered. Those two are projected to make about $8 million combined next year, so getting rid of them brings the payroll down to $63 million. The Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 was about $70 million, and it’s been around $80 million in some years. So, yes, the Rays could sign Donaldson and Cruz, not have to worry about either contract being a long-term problem, and still have some money left over to perhaps add some bullpen arms.
The Rays won 90 games in 2018, but a team in their division won 108, and another won 100. The second Wild Card in the AL won 97 games. This is why it’s important for them to use the financial flexibility they have right now to upgrade where they can. Rays fans have to like the idea of this potential lineup in 2019:
2B Joey Wendle/Daniel Robertson
LF Tommy Pham
3B Josh Donaldson
DH Nelson Cruz
SS Willy Adames
C Mike Zunino
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
