Pittsburgh Pirates’ ace Paul Skenes is having an excellent season out of the rotation. However, it is a ‘down’ year by his normal standards. He still has a quality 3.10 ERA, 2.75 FIP, and 0.97 WHIP in the first half of the 2026 season. However, it is a step back from the sub-2.00 ERA’s he posted in his 2024 rookie season and subsequent 2025 Cy Young campaign. Although there are still plenty of positives from his 2026, there is one adjustment he should make now: bringing back his splitter/sinker hybrid, most commonly referred to as his splinker. It’s one of his best pitches, and an easy way he can find a groove again.
Paul Skenes Needs To Start Using His Splinker More Frequently Again
Most Effective Splinker In Baseball
When Skenes first broke into the Major Leagues, his splinker was his second most relied on pitch by far. He used it 28.4% of the time, and it induced plenty of good results. Batters had a 29.3% whiff rate against it. On the occasions they did make contact, Skenes held them to just an 87.4 MPH exit velocity. However, the most impressive part was the -5 degree launch angle he induced.
It was one of the most effective splitter variants in the sport. His +17 run value led all pitchers who threw at least 100 splitters, while his RV/100 was the second best at +2.8. Skenes’ splinker was also one of just seven splitter variants that induced a launch angle in the negatives. Unsurprisingly, the combination of whiffs and poor contact led to a .286 xwOBA. It and his fastball were the only pitches he used at least 15% of the time.
The splinker took a back seat in 2025 as Skenes diversified his pitch arsenal. He used it 13.5% of the time last year. Batters hit Skenes’ splinker harder, with an 89.5 MPH EV, and were swinging and missing less frequently at it, with a 22.8% whiff rate. However, he still achieved a launch angle in the negative range at -3. Once again, he was in very rare company in this regard, as only nine pitchers threw a splitter variant at least 100 times in 2025 and induced a negative launch angle.
Now, Skenes is using his splinker less frequently than ever, throwing it just 10.8% of the time. While the whiff rate on the pitch has continued to decline to 20%, he is inducing more weak contact than ever with the offering. Opponents are managing just an 86.5 MPH exit velocity and a -6 degree launch angle, both of which are currently career lows for Skenes with his splinker. Another career-best mark he is putting up with his splinker is a .274 xwOBA.
No Change In Pitch Characteristics
While Skenes is throwing his splinker less frequently, there is very little change year-over-year in terms of pitch characteristics. He is throwing the pitch at 93.5 MPH on average this year, about the same as the 94 MPH mark he had in 2024, and just below the 93.7 MPH he averaged out at in 2025. His splinker is moving 30 inches vertically and 13 inches horizontally. Once again, that is about the same as the 30.3 inches of vertical break and 14 inches of horizontal break he had in 2024, and the 31.2 inches of vertical movement and 13.4 inches of horizontal break he had in 2025.
Another, Less Effective, Off-Speed Pitch Has Taken Place
Skenes is throwing his change-up more frequently this year than his splinker. It has become his second-most-used offering at 16.8%, but it is causing more problems than it solves. On the surface, inducing a .225 xwOBA and 39.5% whiff rate with his change-up is outstanding. However, it is the only pitch in his arsenal that has a negative run value at -3. His RV/100 comes in at -1.0.
The Results Still Speak For Themselves
This change did not happen until recently. Skenes was using his splinker nearly 14% of the time through his first nine starts and 50 innings of the season. In that time, he had a 1.98 ERA, with a 2.51 FIP, and 0.64 WHIP. However, he has used his splinker 8.2% of the time over his last eight starts, and has a 4.04 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. His exit velocity and barrel rate have gone from 85.7 MPH and 4.2% in his first nine starts, to 90.1 MPH and 7.9% over his last eight. It’s hard to call it solely a coincidence when his splitter is one of his most effective offerings.
Skenes Needs More Groundballs, Now More Than Ever
Skenes is giving up more home runs this year compared to previous seasons. He has a 0.87 HR/9 ratio, and while that is still above average, it is an increase from the 0.59 mark he posted in 2024-2025. His flyball rate has gone from 34.8% in 2024-2025 to 41.5%, and his average launch angle has risen from 10.7 degrees in 2024-2025 to 14.4 degrees. It would probably help Skenes keep the ball in the park if he utilized a pitch he has consistently posted a negative launch angle with more frequently.
The Reason For The Change?
The reason for the change in usage might be much simpler than many expect. It’s not because of anything new that pitching coach Bill Murphy is doing or suggesting. However, this may be Skenes’ way of navigating a poor defense. The Pirates were a sound defensive team in 2025. They had +32 defensive runs saved, and +18 outs above average, with +10 fielding run value as a unit. However, this year they have +9 DRS, -10 OAA, and -13 FRV through about half of the season. Skenes may see this as a reason to utilize a pitch that induces more swings and misses and fewer batted balls. However, it’s not as if the Pirates’ defense was strong in 2024, when he used the pitch as often as ever. They had -7 DRS, -15 OAA, and -26 FRV.
Unluckiest Splitter In The Game
Skenes might also be using his splinker less because batters are getting hits against it. They have hit .359 with a .348 wOBA against his splinker. However, it is the unluckiest splitter in the game right now. The 74-point difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is the largest gap by far. Shohei Ohtani’s splitter is the second unluckiest splitter in the game, at a difference of just 46 points. Skenes’ xBA on his splinker is .267, a 92-point difference. The next highest difference comes from Jeff Hoffman at 55 points.
A Small Adjustment That Can Make A Big Impact
It is not a large change Skenes needs to make here. It is simply a change in pitch sequencing that includes his splinker more frequently. The pitch has been one of his most reliable offerings to induce a ground ball and avoid quality contact since he broke into the Major Leagues in 2024. Skenes needs that kind of pitch now more than he ever has since his rookie season.
Main Photo: Charles LeClaire- Imagn Images
