The Pittsburgh Pirates have a conundrum on their hands that needs to be solved very quickly. Both Carmen Mlodzinski and Jared Jones want to be starting pitchers, and it seems like the Pirates have tried to satisfy both. Jones has slotted into Mlodzinski’s former rotation spot, but Mlodzinski is still pitching every five days behind Jones in a piggyback role. However, after their most recent performances and the need for bullpen help, something has been made clear: one or both are going to have to become legitimate relievers.
The Pirates Must Make Jones or Mlodzinski Become a Traditional Reliever
Jones And Mlodzinski’s Struggles
Since returning from internal brace surgery, Jones has allowed a dozen earned runs over 17.1 innings of work and four starts. The 2024 standout rookie has certainly shown plenty of promise. He is averaging 98-99 MPH with his four-seam fastball and is inducing a whiff on over a third of swings. Jones has only handed out a free pass to 7.7% of batters faced with a solid 23.1% strikeout percentage.
However, home runs have been the main source of trouble for Jones. He has already allowed four on the season, resulting in a HR/9 ratio of 2.08. Jones also has a sub-par 9.8%-barrel percentage and 89.8 MPH exit velocity. While he is inducing ground balls at a solid 42.6% clip, home runs were a problem for Jones in 2024, with a 1.33 HR/9 ratio and 14th percentile barrel rate.
Mlodzinski has also struggled since his move to a piggyback role. He has allowed six earned runs over 10.1 innings, while only striking out 16% of opponents. Home runs have also plagued him, allowing three and one in each of his outings out of the pen. Although his 20% HR: FB ratio suggests this is a small-sample-size product, his 10.5%-barrel rate also suggests it’s not all bad luck.
Both Want to Be Starters
Both Jones and Mlodzinski made it clear what sort of roles they wanted to pitch in for. Last month, during his rehab, Jones was asked by reporters if there was any chance that he would pitch out of the bullpen, but he did not seem enthused by the idea of moving to the pen. When Mlodzinski moved to the pen, he stated that he was communicating not only with the organization and his family but also with his agent about what was next.
Their desire to be starters isn’t without cause. Jones was an effective rookie in 2024, with a 4.14 ERA, 26.2% K%, and 7.7% BB%. He had a 4.00 FIP and 1.15 WHIP over his first 121.2 innings. Before moving into a piggyback role, Mlodzinski had a 3.76 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. While underlying ERA estimators and his 91.8 MPH exit velocity suggested good luck played a role, he certainly pitched well enough to stick at the back of the Pirates’ rotation.
Both Should Be Relievers?
While both Pirates right-handers have legitimately good reasons to be starting pitchers, there are also plenty of reasons why they should be relievers. Mlodzinski holds opponents to just a .615 OPS the first time he faces an opponent as a starter. That rises to a .876 mark the second time through the order. His highest single-season FanGraphs Stuff+ mark of 105 came in 2024, when he was mostly used in a more traditional reliever role, and mostly pitched just 1-2 innings at a time. Mlodzinski also has a much stronger 2.80 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 14.2% K-BB% as a reliever, compared to a 4.40 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 10.4% K-BB% as a starter. He also has experience as a high-leverage reliever.
Jones also has stronger splits in his first fights. He has held them to a .678 OPS, has a 29.9% K%, and 9.8% BB% when they first get to face off against Jones. Then, when they face him a second time, they have an .815 OPS, .20.4% strikeout percentage, although he does allow slightly fewer walks at a 6.1% BB%. However, given the increase in all other offensive stats against him the second time through, that decrease in walks may stem from batters becoming more aggressive rather than from improved control or command.
A Decision Must Be Made
The Pirates cannot continue to run this piggyback formation between Jones and Mlodzinski. They need relief badly, and it hasn’t helped. One of them needs to become a traditional reliever of some sort. They are wasting a bullpen spot by having Mlodzinski pitch once every five days when he has plenty of success pitching 1-2 innings at a time in previous seasons. They must come to a decision, and fast.
Main Photo Credits: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images
