The Pittsburgh Pirates moved Carmen Mlodzinski back to the bullpen when right-hander Jared Jones returned from his internal brace surgery this month. However, while the Pirates moved him back to the bullpen, they’re still only using him once a week in a piggyback role. While Mlodzinski was not thrilled about the move back to the pen, the team could benefit a ton from letting him work in more high-leverage situations in a more traditional reliever role. Their pen needs a lot of help, and Mlodzinski can provide just that.
A Look At Carmen Mlodzinski’s Season So Far
The right-hander has tallied 62.2 innings over 13 games and nine starts. He owns a 4.02 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 1.40 WHIP. His 8.5% walk rate is roughly league-average, and he is posting a career-low 19.3% strikeout rate. Although he has a solid 0.72 HR/9 ratio, his 91.8 MPH exit velocity (4th percentile) and 7.8% barrel rate (48th percentile) suggest he’s getting hit harder than his home run rate shows. Mlodzinski has a 5.07 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, and 4.33 SIERA so far this season.
A Potential Elite High-Leverage Arm
It’s not as if Mlodzinski has struggled in the past when tasked with higher leverage situations. His 2023 rookie season remains his highest-leverage season, with a leverage index of 1.40. He also put up a career-low 2.23 ERA and .211 opponent batting average over 36 innings. He is more effective in the seventh inning or later than he is at any other time, holding opponents to just a .601 OPS. In late and close games, Mlodzinski has only allowed a triple-slash of .190/.271/.246 for his career.
With the tying run on third and one out, Pirates pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski strikes Elly De La Cruz out. He then gets Jonathan India on a flyout to CF, ending the game.
The Reds led 9-0 at one point pic.twitter.com/wgk9a06viI
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) September 24, 2023
Shorter outings will also make Mlodzinski’s stuff play up. He mostly pitched just one or two innings at a time in 2024. 2024 is also his best season in terms of fastball velocity, as he sat 96.2 MPH, with a career-high 105 FanGraphs Stuff+ mark. That was even before he added a splitter to his pitch mix, an offering that has now become his most effective.
Mlodzinski Can Still Pitch Multiple Innings At A Time
The Pirates can still keep Mlodzinski stretched out and use him for multiple innings at a time, even in a higher leverage role. There have been multiple instances when the Bucs needed to get through the 7th and 8th innings and were limited in bullpen options, either due to unreliability, workload management, or both.
The Bucs could use him similarly to how the Milwaukee Brewers used Josh Hader in 2018. Hader pitched 81.1 innings, over 55 appearances, all out of the pen. The Brewers used the left-hander in plenty of high-leverage situations. He recorded a dozen saves, 21 holds, and his 1.59 average leverage index was only surpassed by Jeremy Jeffress on the Brewers that season. Hader was extremely valuable for the Brewers, as his +3.3 win percentage added was also only surpassed by Jeffress.
Benefits The Pirates’ Bullpen More In This Role
The Pirates have plenty of pitchers who can already go 2-3 innings at a time, or can perform a piggyback starter role if needed. Mlodzinski has had plenty of success in the recent past, pitching in higher leverage. They rank among the bottom half of all teams in ERA, FIP, WHIP, and K-BB% in the seventh inning or later. Mlodzinski can provide plenty of innings late into games, and in situations where it matters the most. That is much more valuable than making one piggyback start every week.
Main Photo: Charles LeClaire- Imagn Images
