Before the 2022 MLB season, the players and owners were locked out of a new collective bargaining agreement, creating a grim outlook on baseball’s future and delaying the 2022 season. One conflict between the players’ union and teams was the manipulation of service time for top prospects. To combat this, the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) was established. The PPI awards a draft pick in the first round if a Top 100 prospect is up for the entirety of the season and wins Rookie of the Year, or is a finalist for MVP or the Cy Young Award during their first three seasons. As a result, four players have been selected with these picks, and some have a better outlook than others.
Current Outlook for First Round Draft Picks Under the Prospect Promotion Incentive
Positive Outlook
Ryan Waldschmidt – OF (Arizona Diamondbacks)
The first of the PPI picks to reach the big leagues has been Ryan Waldschmidt. The Diamondbacks received the pick thanks to Corbin Carroll’s Rookie of the Year win in 2023. Waldschmidt was drafted 31st overall out of the University of Kentucky and has left his mark on the Diamondbacks’ system, creating a positive outlook for the organization. He is currently ranked on the Top 100 prospect lists and has had a strong start to his career. He is currently batting just below. 300 with four doubles and three steals in 11 games.
Ryan Waldschmidt collects his first two career RBI and gives the @Dbacks an early lead! pic.twitter.com/52jJx1NpF0
— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2026
From a future outlook, Waldschmidt could be an impact bat for years to come. While there is not a ton of movement in his approach, there’s plenty of impact. He leverages his bat patch well and creates more of an uppercut swing. This will lead to plenty of power to man any position in the outfield. Defensively, he can play all three positions and more than handle himself in center. Waldschmidt also has plenty of speed to play center and steal enough bases to make an impact running the bases. Unfortunately, for the Diamondbacks, Waldschmidt was not called up early enough to qualify for another PPI pick.
Josh Hammond – SS/3B (Kansas City Royals)
The Royals used their pick for Bobby Witt Jr.’s top three MVP finish on Josh Hammond in last year’s draft. Not unlike Witt, Hammond was also selected out of high school and primarily plays shortstop. This year has been Hammond’s first taste of pro ball as he is currently at Kansas City’s High-A affiliate. His performance this year and overall outlook have earned him a Top 100 spot on prospect lists. He is currently hitting .280 with 18 extra-base hits and 9 steals in 37 games.
Hammond’s 18 extra-base hits hint at why his power is his best tool. He makes hard contact and can drive the ball to all fields. However, he can struggle at times with breaking balls out of the zone. This should improve over time with more reps, as he only took a real focus on hitting his senior year of high school. Defensively, he will stick on the left side of the dirt thanks to an above-average arm. The only question is whether he will play shortstop or third long-term. He is not necessarily the fleetest of foot, but has good instincts that could allow him to play short to at least an average performance.
Fallen Behind
Jonny Farmelo – OF (Seattle Mariners)
The first of the PPI picks was Jonny Farmelo. The Mariners were rewarded with this pick thanks to Julio Rodríguez winning Rookie of the Year in 2022, the inaugural season of the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Farmelo is a left-handed-hitting outfielder who was taken out of high school in Virginia. He has been hampered by injuries since going pro, which has hurt his production. In his first two pro seasons, he only appeared in 75 games. During these first two seasons, he batted only .251 and had 90 strikeouts. If the Mariners are going to gain a positive outlook on the outfielder, he needs to stay healthy.
Jonny Farmelo Season Stats:
.236 AVG | 14 XBH | 15 RBI | .368 OBP#TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/GcxbKATfFt
— Milb Central (@milb_central) May 18, 2026
Farmelo has shown flashes during the brief time that he’s actually been healthy. He grades out at plus or better speed, which is impressive given the fact that he suffered an ACL injury. Farmelo also has shown the ability to lift the ball to the opposite field. His biggest flaw comes from his inability to square up breaking balls. For the Mariners’ organization, this is believed to be an issue due to missed time and missed development. Farmelo is still regarded highly by some, as he is the Mariners’ sixth-ranked prospect, as they hope his future outlook is more productive and healthier.
Griff O’Ferrall – SS (Baltimore Orioles)
Not unlike the Royals’ situation, the Orioles received a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick from their star shortstop and used it on another shortstop. The Orioles received the pick they used on Griff O’Ferrall thanks to Gunnar Henderson’s Rookie of the Year award win in 2023. O’Ferrall was a shortstop coming out of the University of Virginia, where he never hit below .308 in college. Unfortunately, this has not translated into the minors. Going into this season, he had a career average of .231 and a slugging percentage of .300 in his first pro season. Like their other first-round pick from 2024, O’Ferrall’s outlook isn’t great.
O’Ferrall has shown two positives in his time in the minors so far. He has always been known for his bat-to-ball skills, which is why he dominated in college. This has been apparent in pro ball, too, with his ability to limit strikeouts. Unfortunately, while he makes contact often, it is rarely with authority. Then, on the basepaths, O’Ferrall was able to steal 44 bases a season ago. This is extremely encouraging given his average speed. Even with this show of high baseball IQ and instincts, the Orioles prospect may have the outlook of a career minor leaguer.
Main Photo Credit: © Allan Henry-Imagn Images
