The Baltimore Orioles took a serious step in the offseason after creating a prospect package traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed pitcher Shane Baz.
That package consisted of 2025 first-rounder Slater de Brun and catching prospect Caden Bodine, along with outfielder Austin Overn and Michael Forret. It came after a dismal 2025 showing by the team, primarily due to poor pitching performances by the rotation.
Through his first two starts with the Orioles, patterns are beginning to emerge in Baz’s new pitching habits and his approach to hitters. There might be a few things to like from the 26-year-old this season.
Baz Leaning on His Knuckle Curve Early
Even though it’s only two starts, it appears Baz is transitioning away from a fastball-dominant arsenal and is using his knuckle curve more.
Shane Baz’s final line:
5.2 innings
3 hits
1 run
0 earned
3 walks
5 strikeouts
11 whiffs (25%)An impressive start from Baz, who was still pumping 98-99 mph in the 6th inning. pic.twitter.com/8bLvwAy91L
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) April 4, 2026
The right-handed pitcher tossed 63 curves against 61 fastballs in his first 11 innings, racking up nine strikeouts. Between 2024 and 2026, his fastball usage dropped from nearly 50% to around 35%. With his knuckle curve getting increasing usage from 20% to 36% in the same time frame. Baz’s new cutter is also increasing in usage.
Both his knuckle curve and cutter are showing efficiency early on in the season. Baz’s curve generated a 32% whiff rate in his first 63 pitches, holding hitters well under .100 in batting average. The cutter is also faring well in the average department at .083, but only has a 20% whiff rate. It’s also garnered a 34% chase rate along with a low 31% hard-hit rate.
Baz’s four-seamer, however, is running into serious trouble early. Out of the seven hits on that pitch, four have been doubles and generate a 29% whiff rate. It does have a 97 mph average, but lacks meaningful lateral movement, averaging around a foot towards third base.
Shane Baz had an up-and-down Orioles debut, allowing 4 ER in 5.1 IP with 7 K
His fastball exhibited more ride on the day while his curveball was noticeably harder with steeper vertical action. His control was a bit shaky, but that did not hurt much as he posted a 44.7 O-Swing% pic.twitter.com/dYglY87PjA
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 29, 2026
Ditching his slider was also a wise move, which got slapped for .429 and led to six home runs. Baz’s fastball will need some work if he wants to really help out the Orioles’ rotation. Still, the knuckle curve and cutter combination is effective enough to put him as a solid middle-of-the-order option.
Baz’s Injury Troubles Might Be Behind Him
One of the major concerns when the Orioles traded for Baz was his lengthy injury history before 2025.
After a successful 2021 debut, he was poised to become a key part of the Rays’ rotation in 2022. That got derailed early in the season after he underwent elbow surgery to remove loose spurs and bodies. He struggled to a 5.00 ERA before he was taken out of a game in July 2022 and underwent Tommy John Surgery
Baz lost his entire 2023 season before returning in the latter half of 2024. The good news is that he hasn’t lost any extra time to injury since then. Starting in 45 games between his return and the end of the 2025 season. It appears that the worst of his elbow injury troubles, stemming from his throwing elbow, are behind him.
“Ready to go… excited to kind of put that behind me and really just take it one day at a time.”
After missing last season with Tommy John surgery, Shane Baz is working his way back to help stabilize the @RaysBaseball rotation. pic.twitter.com/D7RDEJ3eUk
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 7, 2024
However, that raises considerable concern about their decision to lock him into a five-year, $68 million contract through his age-31 season. That contract won’t balloon to $25 million per year until the final season of the agreement. But the true worth of it could be decided well before then. Nevertheless, it’s definitely a risky move for a team desperate not to lose any talent if it pans out.
Baz’s Presence Lifts Burden off the Younger Guys
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Baltimore’s farm system has been thinning over the past few years. That also goes for their number of arms in the minors.
The good news is that, if Baz can turn into an ace alongside left-handed counterpart Trevor Rogers, suddenly the younger guys don’t have to perform right out of the gate. Prospects, including Levi Wells and Trey Gibson, could take some time to develop at Triple-A before making their projected debuts this year. If Baz is holding his own, they could ease into their roles. Instead of being forced to go 100% at the very start of their career.
However, with the injury to Zach Eflin, Gibson or top-pitching prospect Luis De Leon could be getting a call very early. Baz’s presence early in the season won’t be enough to completely ease off the pressure the younger pitchers might feel if they’re called up. Baz could give them pointers, sure, but if Kyle Bradish and Chris Bassitt continue to struggle, Baz might have to carry a lot of that load alongside Rogers.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
