Perhaps the most heartbreaking emotion for a human to feel is acceptance. How can something that was formerly attainable disappear in such a short amount of time? Why has the Cincinnati Reds’ future All-Star seemingly disappeared? After all, the Law of Conservation of Energy states that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed from one form to another.
The conversations around Cincinnati Reds second baseman Matt McLain have changed over the past few years. In a short span of time, McLain’s name has gone from “young promising future All-Star” to “serviceable”. A deep dive is necessary in understanding the bizarre nature of McLain’s career so far.
How Matt McLain Continues to Rewrite His Story
Chapter 1: Paint the Town Red(s)
The year is 2023. It’s been a shaky year for global relations and politics, but one may be oblivious to it all if they reside in Cincinnati due to the noise the Reds are making.
Their 2018 first-round pick out of UCLA has arrived in Cincinnati, and he made an immediate impact. Close your eyes first, if you may, and allow me to paint you a picture. A 5’ 8”, 180-pound middle infielder is taking the field. He is wearing high socks, is quick on his feet, and plays good defense. This sounds more like Sir Matthew Michael McLain, a speedy, glove-first second baseman from 1897 who goes by the nickname Moneymaker Two-Shoes McLain.
Chapter 2: The Matt Attack
On May 15, 2023, McLain took the field as a big leaguer for the first time. By the end of the 2023 season, his name would be on the map with other young stars in the league.
89 GP
.290/.357/.507
.864 OPS
129 wRC+
16 HR
14 SB
3.2 fWAR
While an oblique issue ended his rookie season prematurely, Reds fans were formally introduced to who they believe would be a cornerstone up the middle for years to come. Alongside Elly De La Cruz, who also made his debut in 2023, the two became instant fan favorites and well-known commodities all over the league.
Chapter 3: Sophomore Setback
Heading into 2024, Southern Ohio was buzzing with excitement as it was about to be blessed with a full season of Matt McLain. Unfortunately, McLain suffered a torn labrum and cartilage damage during Spring Training. With a hopeful timeline of rehabbing in August interrupted by rib injuries, McLain did not make a single appearance in MLB in 2024.
While it was certainly disappointing for all parties involved, optimism remained sky high for McLain’s return. De La Cruz broke out with a fantastic All-Star campaign, and the pairing was projected to do damage in 2025.
Chapter 4: Hibernation Over
McLain’s name appeared back on a Reds lineup card as he looked to have a big campaign last year. Although he had a hot start in the first few games, looking back at McLain’s 2025 season, the expectations for him may have been unnecessarily high. After all, he was coming off a major shoulder injury, causing him to miss an entire season.
Factoring in his young age and limited big league experience, it perhaps shouldn’t have come as such a shock when he struggled to regain his 2023-level footing all year.
2025 stats:
147 GP
.220/.300/.343
.643 OPS
77 wRC+
15 HR
18 SB
1.4 fWAR
The strikeouts continued to be an issue, as he was sent down on strikes a staggering 28.9% of the time (6th percentile). While lots of the offensive numbers were discouraging, his eye at the plate stayed solid, and so did his speed and defense.
26.3 Chase% — 61st percentile
9.5 BB% — 64th percentile
4 OAA — 87th percentile
29.2 feet per second sprint speed — 93rd percentile
It was clear that his tools were still there, and as miserable as the season was as a whole, it served as a positive sign. Perhaps the struggles were in fact due to the extended time away.
Chapter 5: Spring Showers Bring…?
Spring Training Matt McLain. An enigma of the game. A specimen of the highest acumen. Simply put, McLain’s 2026 spring training numbers ended up at a literal historic level:
17 GP
.529 AVG
1.648 OPS
7 HR
The cautionary tale of “never overreact to spring training numbers” has seemingly struck us hooligans in the back of our thick skulls once again. Why is it that we fans fall for the same trick over and over again? You can lead a horse to the lake, but you can’t make them take a sip. Tell a baseball fan not to overreact to spring training numbers, yet they just can’t help it.
Chapter 6: Happy New Year!
Note: All 2026 stats entering play on Wednesday, June 10
With a successful Spring Training under his belt and a new year on the calendar, optimism was cautiously high for McLain. The sentiment that “if McLain can be anywhere close to his 2023 form, the Reds offense could be dangerous” was echoed repeatedly.
2026 stats:
.209/.312/.372
.691 OPS
90 wRC+
0.7 fWAR
These numbers are slightly better than last year, but still quite below league average. Take a shot every time this is said: Despite his poor, underwhelming numbers, his eye at the plate, speed, and defense are still bordering on elite, which is what’s holding his head above water.
23.9 Chase% – 83rd percentile
12.1 BB% – 79th percentile
23.8 K% – 34th percentile
3 OAA – 87th percentile
28.5 feet per second sprint speed – 85th percentile
Chapter 7: A Little Luck Goes a Long Way
Sports are all about luck sometimes, and there could be an argument to be made that McLain has experienced both sides of the pendulum in that aspect. In 2023, he actually outperformed his batted ball profile, likely thanks to a very high BABIP of .385. In the following years, it has been at .292 in 2025 (about normal) and .250 this year (below the norm). Of course, making weak contact will result in a low BABIP as he’s not allowing the ball to have much of a chance to drop, but it wasn’t like McLain was smoking the ball in 2023 either. His metrics this year are not too dissimilar from 2023’s. Perhaps there is hope that regression to the mean can boost his numbers a bit.
Chapter 8: Summer Sunshines
The negativity surrounding McLain has been persistent for a while now, but could a weather change be all that he needed? After a miserable May where he hit just .175, he has been playing extremely well in June. Granted, it is a seven-game sample size, but any optimism is worth pointing out:
McLain’s stats through seven games in June, 2026:
.333/.462/.857
1.319 OPS
247 wRC+
19.2 BB%
23.1 K%
Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson go back-to-back for the @Reds 💪 pic.twitter.com/iLMKjs9bOx
— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2026
This isn’t a rare occurrence either, as he has historically been a great hitter in June.
2023 June:
.287/.333/.548
.861 OPS
129 wRC+
2025 June:
.287/.367/.437
.804 OPS
123 wRC+
All it takes is the weather to warm up for the Southern California kid to start raking again.
Chapter 9: A Happily Ever After, Please
It would be a shame to finish the story on a sour note, as it wouldn’t do the story justice. It’s not all grim for the 26-year-old Matt McLain, who burst onto the scene not too long ago. While the struggles are real, there’s evidence to believe that he is not a player of this caliber. He may never reach the heights of his rookie season, but somewhere in between the rookie and current version lies a solid, all-around middle infielder with some pop and speed.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
