Today is Opening Day, and while the Boston Red Sox open in Cincinnati, this is a long season. A lot can happen; some things are expected, while some instances can surprise people, especially when expectations are all over the place. Depending on who is asked, the media and fans may have different perspectives and standards. Here are three bold predictions for this year that could happen.
Three Bold Predictions for the 2026 Red Sox
1. At Least Two Players Hit 30+ Homers
The 2025 Red Sox squad hit 186 home runs last season, with Trevor Story leading the team at 25. FanGraphs projects Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu leading the team in that stat, but only with 19 homers. In fact, Boston’s the only team not to have a projected 20-home run hitter. Why the hesitation? There’s no clear power hitter in this lineup, so it’s understandable. But it’s not impossible to get a couple of guys to show off some power.
Because of the Green Monster in Fenway, players have definitely been robbed of extra home runs. Story’s spray chart shows that he may have been robbed of some. In less than half the season, Roman Anthony hit eight. As shown in the World Baseball Classic, however, his power has improved. And Cora believes that a huge source of home run power lies within Abreu, who hit 22 while missing 47 games. There could always be a surprise surge from someone like Willson Contreras or Duran if they bounce back well, especially Duran. While the last two may not hit 30, those guys could still provide some impact. But between Story, Anthony, and Abreu, two of them should be able to hit 30 this season.
2. Connelly Early Finishes Top Three in AL Rookie of the Year
MLB’s preseason award predictions currently have Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle winning AL Rookie of the Year this season. Some of their honorable mentions include Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo and White Sox third baseman Munetaka Murekami. This is fair. Only two true pitchers have won the award in the past decade, Luis Gil in ‘24 and Michael Fulmer in ‘16 (Shohei Ohtani also won in ‘18). But despite it leaning towards batters, it is a good rookie pitcher class in the American League. There’s Trey Yesavage for Toronto, Tatsuya Imai for Houston, and then there’s Connelly Early. Even if he doesn’t become a finalist, if Early succeeds in his new role as the number five starter, there’s no doubt he should get some votes and recognition.
Early showed some potential last September, when he had a very impressive 29 strikeouts to four walks. But he’s also shown it in Spring Training with a 1.59 ERA in five games. Whether he’s ready or not to take on this role for an entire season is yet to be seen. But if he does well, he can absolutely make a case for Rookie of the Year.
3. The Red Sox Finish Second in AL East, Make World Series
Let’s break this down into two parts. First, Boston finishes second in the East. It’s not too far-fetched to say this. Tampa Bay’s the odd team out. Baltimore’s rotation is consistent, but doesn’t have a standout ace as of now. The New York Yankees are getting ace Gerrit Cole back, but they haven’t made changes to better themselves. The Red Sox didn’t have Anthony or Hunter Dobbins to help them. Romy Gonzalez also played injured. It’s a different series if those three were fully healthy. Toronto does have the edge; they did make the World Series after all. They’re a dangerous team. But the Red Sox can compete and finish second in the division.
Now the World Series part. Aside from the Seattle Mariners, the best teams in the American League last year came from the AL East. The Red Sox were 32-20 against the East last year, including 10-6 against the Yankees (with playoffs). While they did go 5-8 against Toronto, seven of those 13 took place in April and May, where they struggled the most last season. In a seven-game series, the new and improved Red Sox have a fighting chance against the AL champions. After Toronto, the matchup is most likely Seattle (barring a surprise). Boston definitely has a chance of making it to the World Series. However, winning it is a different challenge with all of the talented National League teams.
Overall, the excitement level for this new Red Sox season should be high, based on all the talent that this team has and the new additions. That also means the expectations are reasonably high as well. Happy Opening Day, and here’s to a good season!
Main Photo Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
