The AL East and NL East are once again loaded with star power heading into the 2026 MLB season—but every year, it’s the unexpected performances that truly shape the standings. Whether it’s a breakout star emerging or a key player taking a step back, surprises will define who contends and who falls short.
Here’s one player from each team in both divisions who could shock the baseball world—for better or worse—in 2026.
AL East Surprise Players
Baltimore Orioles — Kyle Bradish (Positive)
If Bradish is fully healthy and back to form, the Orioles may have a true ace leading their rotation. His ability to miss bats and command multiple pitches makes him a nightmare matchup when he’s on. A bounce-back season could not only surprise fans—it could push Baltimore into serious contention.
Boston Red Sox — Willson Contreras (Positive)
Contreras brings fire, leadership, and power—three things that can instantly elevate a clubhouse. If he thrives in Boston, expect a major offensive boost and a tone-setting presence behind the plate. He has the potential to become one of the most impactful catchers in the AL.
New York Yankees — Ryan McMahon (Positive)
Few players are better positioned for a breakout than McMahon. His left-handed swing in Yankee Stadium could translate to a career year in power production. If he finds consistency, don’t be surprised if he becomes a key piece in the Yankees’ lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays — Steven Matz (Positive)
The Rays are known for maximizing pitchers, and Matz, in a contract year, is a dangerous combination. With added motivation and Tampa’s pitching infrastructure, he could deliver one of the most surprising and valuable seasons of his career.
Toronto Blue Jays — Kazuma Okamoto (Negative)
Transitioning from Japan to MLB is no easy task, and Okamoto could face growing pains. While the power is real, MLB pitching depth and velocity could expose early struggles. If he starts slow, the pressure could mount quickly in a competitive AL East.
NL East Surprise Players
Atlanta Braves — Dominic Smith (Positive)
Smith has quietly rebuilt his game, and in the Braves’ loaded lineup, he won’t need to do too much—just produce. That could be the perfect environment for a resurgence. If he taps back into his offensive potential, he could be one of the more unexpected contributors in Atlanta.
New York Mets — Jorge Polanco (Negative)
Polanco’s situation is one to watch closely. Between recent injuries and the challenge of adjusting to a new primary position at first base, 2026 could be a difficult transition year. Defensive growing pains combined with inconsistent availability could limit his overall impact and make him a surprising letdown for the Mets.
Philadelphia Phillies — Alec Bohm (Negative)
Bohm has been solid, but expectations are rising—and that’s where the pressure builds. If his power doesn’t take the next step or his consistency dips, he could fall short of what the Phillies need from a key middle-of-the-order bat. A regression here would be quietly significant.
Miami Marlins — Sandy Alcantara (Positive)
Alcantara returning to dominance would be one of the best stories in baseball. When healthy, he’s one of the most electric and durable arms in the game. If he regains Cy Young-level form, the Marlins instantly become far more dangerous.
Washington Nationals — CJ Abrams (Negative)
Abrams has all the tools, but inconsistency has been a concern. If his approach at the plate doesn’t stabilize or defensive lapses continue, 2026 could be a frustrating season. The potential is still there—but this year may expose the gap between tools and production.
Why These Picks Matter
What makes these divisions so compelling is the razor-thin margin between success and failure. A breakout from someone like Kyle Bradish and a resurgence from Sandy Alcantara could shift the balance of power, while struggles from players like Jorge Polanco or CJ Abrams could quietly derail a team’s season.
In 2026, it won’t just be about the stars—it’ll be about the surprises.
