Baseball America recently published an article about the success of prospects received in trade deadline deals. The majority of these deals are headlined by a prospect who is at least ranked in the top ten of their respective farm system, yet many haven’t had a successful career. This is critical when you consider that prospects’ success in the majors makes or breaks these trades down the line for the seller.
What is the Success of Prospects Dealt in Trade Deadline Deals
Overall, Success of Prospects
Baseball America’s article looked at trades encompassing the month leading up to the trade deadline from 2015-2025 that only included prospects traded. In total, 689 individual prospects were traded across the 11-year time frame, with some prospects even being traded more than once. Of the nearly 700 prospects traded, only 6.3% amassed a career WAR of 5 or more. The 6.3% includes Yordan Alvarez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Dylan Cease and leads the success of prospects amongst the larger population.
Unfortunately, the success of prospects is not well represented amongst these deadline deals. Nearly 50% of the prospects never reach the big leagues. Another almost 40% of prospects accumulate less than 1 WAR over the course of their careers. Should teams pursue prospects in these deadline deals or major-league-ready talent when the success of prospects is so far and few between?
The numbers also back up the idea that prospects’ success, in terms of career WAR, is largely based on the level of the minors they are at when traded. Not surprisingly, Triple-A prospects boast the best percentage to achieve a career WAR over 3. What is a little surprising is the success of prospects in the Low-A level. They are essentially equivalent in the percentage of prospects who accrued at least 3 career WAR as their Double-A counterparts despite being two levels lower. This slightly puts the success of prospects traded and which level they have reached at odds.
What Does This Mean for the Success of Prospects in Deadline Deals
Last year’s trade deadline saw two prospects with varying degrees of success. One prospect, Leo De Vries, further increased his stock and is now the second-ranked prospect in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Mick Abel saw some success to start the season; he regressed down the stretch last year and is currently hurt. Eduardo Tait has done more of the same since being traded, improving his stock. However, time has shown that it’s still hard to achieve long-term success for prospects.
Outside of the number one overall pick, top-end prospects are still seen to be the greatest asset a team could hold, and this is not likely to change. Prospects are cheaper and more controllable, and an organization is responsible for developing them. There will always be an influx of new prospects every season, and development is not linear at any level. Even the major leaguers that are traded are often not the impact teams hope for.
At the end of the day, there is no chance that teams stop acquiring minor league prospects at the trade deadline. If prospects become Top 100 guys, they can eventually qualify for Prospect Promotion Incentive picks. Then teams can hoard even more assets and add more prospects to their systems. This is the key to success for Major League franchises because even first-round picks only get a cup of coffee in the big leagues ⅔ of the time.
Teams can acquire cheap, controllable players when their own players are at their peak value. This saves them money in the long term and allows them to rebuild and retool their roster for the future. Every team always needs to look ahead, and by acquiring prospects, they are already knee-deep in the process. Teams need to create a player development and scouting department they can trust to acquire prospects and help them succeed at the big league level.
All in all, teams won’t stop acquiring prospects. The nature of the game is to acquire and develop prospects into major league players. The game is built on the success of prospects and won’t change anytime soon. Teams will likely take the insights from this article and reinvest in their scouting and player development departments to be more successful than their competitors.
Main Photo Credits: David Dermer-Imagn Images
