The first pick in the MLB Draft is coveted by many as a team’s most valuable asset. The player selected almost always becomes a Top 100 Prospect immediately upon being drafted. This season’s consensus top draft prospect, Roch Cholowsky, was eliminated during a Regional Round upset.
The Significance of the First Pick in the MLB Draft
First Pick History and Accolades
The first MLB Draft occurred in 1965, and the then-Kansas City Athletics selected Rick Monday. Monday had a solid career but was never a star in MLB. He was an All-Star twice and had a career .264 batting average with 241 home runs. Only Hall of Famer Harold Baines had a higher career WAR among the first 15 number one overall picks. Alex Rodriguez ultimately leads all of the number one overall picks in career WAR, clocking in at an astounding 117.6 career WAR, a mark he leads by over 30 points. Excluding Eli Willits, the first pick has an average career WAR of 20.4, ranging from -1.5 WAR to 117.6.
As evidenced by the range of career WARs amongst the first pick, it can be very unpredictable. Excluding last year’s number one overall pick, three players who were selected first never appeared in a major league game. Two are left-handed high school pitchers, and one is a catcher. All three players’ careers were cut short due to injury. Two of the players, one of the pitchers, and the catcher had shoulder injuries that they never recovered from.
Among the 60 players taken with the first pick, there are plenty of accolades. There are four Hall of Famers and five Rookie of the Year award winners. Surprisingly, there are only three Cy Young winners, with the first one selected being David Price in 2007. Each of these three pitchers has only one Cy Young apiece. The most prolific stat among the group is 115 All-Star selections. This, along with 42 Silver Slugger awards, was the most represented award by the first pick. The most unique of those selected with the first pick is Stephen Strasburg. As of right now, Strasburg is the only WS MVP amongst the number one overall picks.
Official Valuation of the First Pick
Roch Cholowsky is currently the favorite to be picked with the first pick this July, according to multiple reports and mock drafts. No matter where he is selected, he is likely to sign within $500,000-$1,000,000 of the total slot value of the first pick. The San Francisco Giants are supposedly making a run at drafting Cholowsky, even though they have the fourth pick, and it is highly unlikely he gets to them. The Giants even acquired a Comp A pick from the Guardians in the Patrick Bailey trade to increase their overall pool value in an effort to give Cholowsky extra money if he fell to them.
During the 2025 MLB Draft, the overall slot value for the first pick was valued at just over $11 million. When the Nationals took Eli Willits, they were able to stay below this value and under-slot him for $8.2 million. At the time, he signed the richest signing bonus for a high school player before Ethan Holliday signed a $9 million bonus later that week. The current record holder for the highest signing bonus by the first pick is Paul Skenes in 2023. He signed for $9.2 million.
Last year’s first pick was valued at $11.08 million; it is likely to see a little bump in July. The White Sox have the first pick and are likely choosing between Colt Emerson and the aforementioned Roch Cholowsky. If the Sox go for the Bruin shortstop, he will likely sign for closer to slot value than Emerson. This is because Emerson doesn’t have the track record Cholowsky has. Brady Aiken was the last number one overall pick to not sign in 2014. He never appeared in a major league game and was the first number-one pick not to sign since 1983, when Tim Belcher was drafted.
Main Photo Credits: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
