The San Diego Padres have been one of the most interesting teams in baseball over the last decade. Under the guidance of General Manager A.J. Preller, the club has gone from a bottom-of-the-barrel organization to a perennial contender. That said, the team has continually fallen short in delivering a long-awaited championship to San Diego. Despite that, the team has been in its most prosperous era across the better part of the last decade. They’ve made the postseason four out of six seasons (2020, 2022, 2024, 2025) and made it as far as the NLCS in ’24. The club is fresh off consecutive 90-plus win seasons and has shown flashes of that this year.
It’s Now or Never for Padres
The Starting Rotation Saga
The problem is that the 2026 club has, for the most part, underwhelmed. Say what you will about 2025 Dylan Cease, but he ate valuable innings for the Padres. The ’25 starting rotation was stacked with talent. Between Cease, Michael King and Nick Pivetta, the Padres had a formidable trio to go along with a surging Randy Vásquez and the occasional Yu Darvish gem. But this year? Cease left in free agency for a cushy contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. Darvish won’t throw a single inning (and might not ever again). Joe Musgrove and Pivetta have struggled to return from injuries. Add that all together with a payroll that’s floundering under the weight of expensive contracts and the Friars were unable to sign any marquee free agents this offseason.
They managed to retain King’s services, but he’s been inconsistent this year. The rest of the rotation has been pieced together with reclamation projects and veterans well past their prime. Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, Lucas Giolito and Germán Márquez were the four brought in to offer some rotation depth. Márquez is close to returning from the IL and should be back with the club later this week. He’ll likely replace Canning who has massively underwhelmed. Giolito was just placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation. Buehler is the only somewhat successful one of the quartets. He’s looked resurgent in his last few starts but just gave up nine runs to the Chicago Cubs in the Padres’ series finale on Wednesday afternoon.
An Unhelpful (and Inconsistent) Lineup
All in all, the rotation (and the pitching staff as a whole) has been asked to do something impossible: be perfect. They’ve kept games close most of the time, but the offense simply hasn’t done anything to help the situation. The Padres went a miserable 7-for-30 with runners in scoring position and were walked off in Game 1 before losing a slugfest in Game 2, 9-7. To cap off their third sweep of the season, they allowed a franchise-record-tying 23 runs (though eight of those came against catcher Rodolfo Durán, who pitched in relief for the final two innings). What happens when a rotation is forced to be perfect for too long? They collapse. And that is exactly what has happened for San Diego.
There have been bright spots lately, to be sure. Jake Cronenworth is 3-for-7 since coming off the IL Monday. The Padres combined for five homers in the series with Fernando Tatis Jr. having his first multi-homer game of the year. Sung-Mun Song also had his first big-league home run on Wednesday. There are positives. But positives hardly matter when your club is in the midst of a five-game losing streak and is just one game over .500 (43-42 entering play on Thursday). Not to mention that they’re heading into a four-game gauntlet against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers starting on Thursday night.
A Semblance of Hope
The 2024 Padres were largely considered to be one of the most complete (and magical) groups to make the postseason. They swept the Atlanta Braves before taking a commanding 2-1 lead against the Dodgers in the NLDS. With Game 4 at home, it felt assured that the club would play the New York Mets in the NLCS. But then, it happened. They went scoreless for the rest of the series, losing Game 4, 8-0, and Game 5, 2-0. L.A. went on to win the World Series. To add insult to injury, Los Angeles preached that San Diego was the only team to give them a run for their money in the ’24 playoffs. Looking at the way it all played out, that certainly seems to have been the case. It doesn’t do anything to make up for the lack of a trophy.
If there’s any mark of hope, it’s this. That 2024 group was one game over .500 at the All-Star break. They sat at in second place in the NL West with a measly 50-49 record. The club would go on a tear in the second half. They were the best team in baseball down the stretch, finishing with 93 wins and going a blistering 43-20 down the stretch. Then came the heartbreaking ending to the season. But the club mostly floundered through the first half of the year. They certainly didn’t feel like World Series contenders. Then, in the blink of an eye, everything flipped. If San Diego can use the All-Star break this year in the same way, they could turn things around. Otherwise, the club may never dig their way out of the hole they’re currently mired in.
Main Photo Credits: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images
