The month of June has gone about as badly as it could for the Pittsburgh Pirates. At the time of writing, they have just three wins in their last ten games. They were five games over .500 as late as June 4th, but are now at .500. There are multiple factors at play, and one many fans want to point to is manager Don Kelly. Fans do not like how he has handled the bullpen and lineup, and they blame him for multiple other shortcomings in the Pirates’ game. However, if history teaches us anything, it’s that a midseason manager change isn’t going to help the Pirates’ playoff odds drastically.
According to popular baseball YouTuber Jolly Olive, there have been 59 midseason managerial changes since 2000. Of those 59, only five have resulted in a playoff berth. When looking back at those five teams, it’s very apparent they were underperformers with a wealth of talent who turned things around under a new manager, rather than a new manager turning things around on his own.
Baseball History Doesn’t Look Kindly Upon Midseason Manager Changes, Unless They Have Overwhelming Talent
2003 Florida Marlins
The first team to make the playoffs in the 2000s after a midseason managerial change was the 2003 Florida Marlins. Jeff Torborg started the year off with a 16-36 record before passing the torch to Jack McKeon. The Marlins finished the year with 91 wins and won the World Series. It’s pretty evident why they were able to make such a miraculous run.
The Marlins had six batters receive MVP votes this season. That includes future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez, one-time Pirates first baseman Derek Lee, infielders Luis Castillo and Mike Lowell, speedster Juan Pierre, and rookie Miguel Cabrera.
The ace of the staff, Dontrelle Willis, also received MVP votes and took home the National League Rookie of the Year award. He was backed by solid seasons from Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Mark Redman, and fellow standout rookie Josh Beckett.
2004 Houston Astros
A year later, the 2004 Houston Astros achieved the same feat as the Marlins. They started the year 44-44 under manager Jimy Williams before hiring longtime former Pirates infielder Phil Garner. Looking at their lineup, it was pretty obvious why they turned things around and finished the season with 92 wins and fell just one win short of winning the NL pennant.
The 2004 Astros regularly had four future Hall of Famers in their lineup, including Jeff Bagwell, Jeff Kent, Craig Biggio, and Carlos Beltran.
They weren’t even the Astros’ most productive hitter in ‘04 either. That would be Lance Berkman, who is a borderline Hall of Famer himself. Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt headlined their rotation. The former would win the NL Cy Young and would be in the Hall of Fame had it not been for his connection to steroids, and the latter would finish third in voting. Not to mention veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte made 15 starts with a 111 ERA+. Brad Lidge put up +3.8 bWAR as their closer. Only 35 relievers have had a 3.5 or more bWAR in a single season in the 2000s.
2009 Colorado Rockies
Five years later, in 2009, then Colorado Rockies manager Clint Hurdle was let go after the team got off to a 16-28 start. His successor, Jim Tracy, oversaw a rebound into a 92-win season. The Rockies were bounced from the division series by the Philadelphia Phillies, and Tracy had plenty of help from his players to even get to that point.
This is another team with yet another future Hall of Famer in Todd Helton. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki also performed at a superstar level, and was another Hall of Fame candidate had it not been for injuries in the second half of his career. The Rockies also received quality production from Seth Smith, Brad Hawpe, Chris Iannetta, Clint Barmes, and up-and-coming players Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez. Although the Rockies are not known for their pitching, this season they had five starters, all of whom threw at least 150 innings, had an ERA+ of 108 or greater, and posted at least 2.0 bWAR.
2022 Philadelphia Phillies
Baseball would not see another midseason managerial change reverse the fortunes of its season until 2022. That would be the Philadelphia Phillies. Joe Girardi was released after the Phils started the year 22-29. Rob Thomson would take the reins, and not only would he go an impressive 65-46, but lead them to an NL Pennant and fall just two games from winning the World Series.
The Phillies are another team that had loads of talent that were simply underperforming. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins all played over half of the season and had an OPS+ over 120. Jean Segura and Alec Bohm were also above-average in the batter’s box. Aaron Nola had one of his best seasons, while Zack Wheeler was also strong. Ranger Suarez pitched well in his first full season as an MLB starter this year as well.
2022 Toronto Blue Jays
Before 2026, the most recent midseason managerial change resulting in a playoff spot was the Toronto Blue Jays in 2022. The Jays fired their manager Charlie Montoyo when they were above-.500 at 46-42. However, their next manager, John Schneider, also won 46 games and lost only 26 contests.
The Jays’ offense in 2022 was powerful. Of their nine batters who appeared in at least 120 games, seven put up an OPS+ over 110. The lowest was Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who still had an 114 OPS+. Alek Manoah broke out and finished third in Cy Young voting. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman also received Cy Young votes. Manoah, along with Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, all received MVP votes.
What Does That Mean For The Pirates?
You need some serious firepower to make the playoffs, and realistically speaking, any manager could have helped these five teams turn it around. Most of the teams whose midseason managerial swap had at least one player who would go on to make the Hall of Fame, or are playing one player who is more than likely going to end up in Cooperstown. So what does that mean for the Bucs?
The main thing it means is that if the Pirates were to move on from Kelly, the chances they would suddenly become a top contender are slim. Five of the 59 midseason manager swaps in the previous 25 seasons have worked out for them. That is less than 10%. One could argue that the five that did work were because those teams had overwhelming talent, with multiple All-Stars, MVP/Cy Young Candidates, and future Hall of Famers. The ultimate bottom line is that talent trumps managerial practice. One cannot confidently say the 2026 Pirates have just as much talent as any of these five teams.
Main Photo Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
