Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the Rangers’ best pitchers since 2023, when he signed with them a couple of days after Christmas. It turned out to be one of the best deals in Rangers’ history. They even signed him to an extension to keep him there until 2028.
From 2023 to 2025, Eovaldi was a reliable ace for them, bringing home an All-Star nod in 2023 as he played a good part in their World Series win. His highlight was game five when he kept the Arizona Diamondbacks off the board and danced out of trouble in practically every inning.
2025 was his best year as he posted a 1.73 ERA in 130 innings. The only thing that kept him from taking home some hardware was injuries, as he battled them throughout the season. He was looking to bounce back from those and repeat the dominance in 2026. However, it has not gone that way as Eovaldi has struggled mightily in the early season.
The Struggles
Eovaldi has been off to a rough start this season. His ERA is up to 4.76. He has more losses (four) than wins (three). Even his WAR is in the negative at -0.2.
Despite his bad numbers, only a few main things are going against him. His fastballs have been off. Ranking near the bottom of the league, and he is letting up a lot of hard contact, with nearly half of the contact against him being hard. Looking at his pitches, it is obvious to see which pitches are the problem. It’s his fastball stuff. His sinker and four-seam fastball have both been hit hard. Hitters have a .375 batting average against the sinker while having a .583 batting average against the four-seamer. His lowest hard hit rate for a pitch is 25 percent, with three of his pitches being over 40 percent.
It seems like they are waiting on Eovaldi to throw either one of his fastballs. Trying to fight off his offspeed stuff until they get a fastball. The good thing is that these only make up 20 percent of his pitches. But if you know that he’s struggling to throw his fastballs, then it makes it easier for the offspeed.
The Positives
For as bad as the surface numbers look and how much the fastball pitches for him have struggled, there is still some good for Eovaldi. For as bad as fastball pitches have been with a -2 run value, the off-speed value has been just as good, if not better. His off-speed pitches have been the best in the league with an eight run value. His chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all above average.
Hitters have not had great batting averages against the off-speed pitches, with the highest being .250 versus the curveball. His signature split finger continues to be his best pitch, with only a .164 batting average and the highest run value at eight. However, this pitch is getting crushed with a nearly 60 percent hard hit rate.
The same thing goes for both the cutter and the curveball. Both of them have been good pitches, generating good whiff and put-away percentages, but are getting hit hard with 35.3 percent and 43.5 percent rates, respectively
The Last Word
While the numbers don’t look good for Eovaldi, looking underneath the hood shows that there are only a few things not going his way. He just showed how well he can pitch in his latest outing with seven scoreless innings against the Yankees, where he struck out seven with just one walk.
If he can improve on those things and look like his old self, he, along with Jacob deGrom, MacKenzie Gore, Jack Leiter, and Kumar Rocker, can form a formidable group for the Rangers.
Main Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
