The Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting rotation is the strongest part of their roster. With Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Carmen Mlodzinski, the Bucs have five starters who could all be above-average this year. However, their overall workload is questionable as things stand right now. By the time summer rolls around, the Pirates may need to start looking at who is potentially available in the trade market.
Limited Workload for Multiple Pirates Starters
Aside from Skenes and Keller, none of Ashcraft, Chandler, or Mlodzinski have started more than 30 games in one season. Ashcraft was a 2018 second-round draft pick, and after suffering multiple injuries, pitched more than 100 frames for the first time in one season last year. Mlodzinski has primarily pitched as a reliever throughout his entire career. Although he has experience as a multi-inning reliever, he has also only pitched more than 100 innings in a season once since he was drafted in 2020.
Even if Mlodzinski is outright dominant this year, he’ll likely not surpass 130-140 innings pitched. For example, Reynaldo Lopez is one of the biggest success stories of a pitcher who came up to the Major Leagues as a starter, spent a few seasons as a reliever before returning to the rotation in 2024. In 2024, Lopez threw only 135.2 innings, despite having an extremely similar ERA+ to Skenes (208 for Lopez, 211 for Skenes).
One positive is that Jared Jones will return this summer. Jones served solely as a starter in his 2024 rookie season. However, after coming off internal brace surgery and not having thrown a pitch in a competitive game since 2024, his workload will also be limited. That means the Pirates can slot him into the bullpen as a multi-inning/spot-starter swingman, akin to the role that Ashcraft served last year.
At Mlodzinski’s current workload, he will reach a career-high in innings pitched by his 20th or 21st start of the year, assuming he stays effective and continues to average the same amount of innings per start. The fact that both Ashcraft and Chandler will likely pitch less than 170 innings each will put a strain on the Pirates’ bullpen unless they make a trade for another pitcher.
Who Is All on the Market (Potentially)?
There will be plenty of short-term starters the Pirates can add to truly bolster their rotation to make a playoff run. One of the best that may end up becoming available is Minnesota Twins’ All-Star right-hander Joe Ryan. Ryan will likely hit free agency after this year and opt out of his 2028 mutual option. However, the Twins are off to a very hot start to the year. They may become competitors by this summer.
Kris Bubic is another high-end short-term starter. The Southpaw was an All-Star last year, albeit in an injury-limited 20 starts and 116.1 innings of work. Still, the Kansas City Royals may look to deal the rental starter during the summer if they cannot find their footing in the standings. Similarly, a division rival rental starter in Casey Mize may also become available if the Detroit Tigers also find themselves out of contention in the very near future. Other back-end options like Zack Littell, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Tyler Mahle have a stronger chance of getting traded at the deadline. They are all starters the Pirates should have on their radar.
The Pirates’ rotation may be strong with an important reinforcement on the way, but if they find themselves as legitimate contenders during the summer, they will need to acquire a starter they can rely on for a handful of innings down the line. Ashcraft and Chandler will have their workloads somewhat limited, while Mlodzinski’s workload is going to be even more limited. Even acquiring a reliable middle rotation arm mid-season makes the Pirates’ roster and chance of making the postseason that much better.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
