The Pittsburgh Pirates have officially finalized their starting rotation. Paul Skenes enters the year as the Bucs’ ace, with a supporting cast of Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, and Bubba Chandler. The fifth and final spot of the Bucs’ rotation was up for grabs going into Spring Training, with multiple options gunning for it. However, Carmen Mlodzinski has earned the fifth rotation spot, and it is ultimately the right choice by the Bucs.
Good reliever, poor starter?
Some may question the decision, and it isn’t without merit. The Pirates also opened 2025 with Mlodzinski in the rotation, but it didn’t go very well. The right-hander made nine starts and pitched 39.2 innings. He owned just a 5.67 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.61 WHIP as a SP. Mlodzinski struck out a meager 15.6% of opponents with a 1.13 HR/9 ratio. He managed a solid 6.7% walk rate and 7.9% barrel rate, but that’s about where good ends for Mlodzinski as a starter.
The Pirates optioned him back to Triple-A for a month, and he returned strong as a multi-inning reliever/opener. His final 59.1 innings saw him put up a strong 2.12 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP. He kept up a strong 6.3% walk rate, but upped his strikeout rate to 25.5%. Mlodzinski also allowed just three more home runs all year, and cut his barrel rate down to just 4.4%. Only one of his outings from this point on lasted less than 1.1 frames.
Not the same Mlodzinski from 2025
However, Mlodzinski is entering 2026 on a much different note than at the start of 2025. Mlodzinski only pitched 9.2 Spring Training innings in 2025, but racked up 12.1 frames in 2026. The results were a lot better, too. He allowed four earned runs with only eight K’s and three walks in 2025. This year, he allowed the same number of walks and earned runs while striking out 14 opponents. Mlodzinski pitched just as well as anyone else competing for the final rotation spot. His 21.4% K-BB% was better than Hunter Barco’s (15.4%), and he also had a similar ERA (Barco had a 2.89 ERA). Mlodzinski also out-pitched Jose Urquidy by a mile.
Of course, it is only Spring Training work, so the bottom-line results won’t be very telling. However, one notable thing is that Mlodzinski is using his most effective pitches from 2025 much more frequently. The right-hander’s splitter held opponents to a .240 xwOBA, 85 MPH exit velocity, and induced a whiff 43.1% of the time. He used it only 15.2% of the time last year, about as often as he used his sinker (15.1%) and slider (14.3%). In the pre-season, Mlodzinski has thrown a splitter nearly 28% of the time (27.9%, to be exact).
Carmen Mlodzinski this afternoon:
5.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR
64 pitches, 48 strikes, 7 whiffsHe now has a 2.92 ERA this spring in 12.1 IP pic.twitter.com/ICE9nsNEiH
— Platinum Key (@PlatinumKey13) March 14, 2026
His curveball had the second-best whiff rate (29.2%), xwOBA (.284), and best exit velocity (81.1 MPH) among his pitch arsenal. He used this pitch just 8.9% of the time in 2025, but has utilized it 19.8% of the time in Spring Training. Meanwhile, his least effective offering, his slider, has only been used 2.5% of the time. As stated earlier, Mlodzinski threw his slider nearly as often as his splitter, despite the fact that his slider had the worst exit velocity at 91.5 MPH, and xwOBA at 369 among the pitches he threw last season.
There is still no guarantee that Mlodzinski is going to work as a starter. But how he performed as a SP last year doesn’t automatically mean he’ll perform the same way this year. He performed as well as anyone in Spring Training for the Pirates, and has made the adjustments you’d want to see him make. The Pirates also have plenty of backup options if Mlodzinski falters as a starter once again.
(Top Image Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)
