It’s easy to overreact to what takes place early in the year. Some teams look unstoppable, while others look disastrous. Players have huge performances on the heels of big spring trainings. Some struggle mightily and raise question marks right away.
As much as baseball fans live and die on recency bias, there’s very little certainty after four games. But, as easy as it is to overreact, it’s just as easy to sweep stuff under the rug. It’s easy to say “it’s just four games” and ignore trends, both troubling and encouraging. As fantasy baseball managers, patience is a virtue. But it’s important to identify trends early in the season to keep one step ahead of your competition.
As week two of the MLB season kicks off, these are five statements that may be viewed as overreactions after just one weekend. In reality, these look likely to be the case over the entire season. Some things are certain after just four games.
Overreaction One: Paul Skenes Will Have His Worst Statistical Season and Lose the NL CY Young Race
It was a day to forget for Paul Skenes, who didn’t make it out of the first inning against the New York Mets on Opening Day. He got just two outs and allowed five runs on four hits and two walks. Of course, anyone watching would know Skenes wasn’t as bad as the line would show. Oneil Cruz broke in on a line-drive hit right at him and watched it sail over his head to bring in three runs, then lost a pop-up in the sun the very next batter to bring in another run. It was the shortest outing of Skenes’ career and a nightmare start for the Pirates.
Why it isn’t an overreaction: This has nothing to do with Skenes, who has an argument as the best pitcher in baseball. And it’s likely that at the end of this year, we look back on this as his worst start of the year. However, the defensive woes the Pirates experienced on Thursday are not going anywhere. Last year, it was the wins category that fantasy managers suffered with Skenes, but the ratios remained elite. This year, Skenes’ ratios are likely to take a hit.
The Pirates made several moves this offseason to bolster their offense and give Skenes and Co. in the rotation more run support. Well, mission accomplished; Brandon Lowe hit two home runs on opening day and a third on Sunday. Newcomer Ryan O’Hearn also went deep on opening day, and the Pirates scored seven runs.
The problem with the Pirates’ additions is that none of them are good defensively. In fact, they are quite the opposite. Lowe, at his best, has been an average defender, but last year he was at his worst. His -10 fielding run value at second base ranked 4th percentile in the league. Marcell Ozuna is strictly a DH. O’Hearn, a DH and first baseman by trade, is forced to play right field to keep Spencer Horwitz in the lineup. O’Hearn is a solid first base defender, but one of the worst in the league in right field.
All of that fails to mention Cruz, a shortstop early in his career, who moved to center field last year. Cruz was not a good defensive shortstop and doesn’t grade out terribly in center; his speed certainly helps. However, the plays we saw on Thursday are not out of the norm, as there were several instances of poor play on his part last year. A combination of low effort and lack of familiarity with center field angles creates some brutal moments.
There is a real possibility this Pirates’ defense is not just the worst in baseball, but historically bad. And as good as Skenes is, he can’t strike out everyone. He has to rely on the defense behind him, and while it won’t be as bad as it was Thursday, it’s going to be a problem all year.
What does this mean for fantasy managers? He’s good enough to still put up a great season and will certainly be among the best pitchers in baseball. Skenes was drafted at a premium to be one of the three best pitchers in baseball, however, and the defense behind him makes it unlikely he lives up to that billing. There are pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez, Hunter Brown, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Garret Crochet who have near the same ceiling as Skenes, but with much better offenses and defenses behind them. They are likely to finish ahead of Skenes, with cleaner ratios, more wins, and more innings pitched.
Skenes will finish in the top ten of pitchers, but won’t live up to his draft value. That could make him an enticing trade piece once he’s had a few more Skenes-like performances. Savvy managers will see an opportunity to use Skenes’ name value to acquire a more consistent piece for 2026.
Overreaction Two: The Mets’ Offense Will Be the Best in Baseball and a Goldmine for Fantasy Managers
There has to be a conversation about the other side of the Skenes game, a revamped Mets offense that is off to a hot start in 2026. The Mets had to fight more than they envisioned in the series, but the Pirates’ rotation is nothing to sneeze at. It’s what the Mets accomplished with the players that got it done that opened this conversation.
Why it’s not an overreaction: The Mets lineup is deep, multi-faceted, and boasts tons of upside primed to come together this year. It starts with the new addition, Luis Robert, once considered the future of the center field position. Robert is 5/11 with two walks, five RBI, and the walk-off three-run home run in game two of the series. Francisco Alvarez went yard in the first game. People forget that Alvarez once topped the catcher prospect rankings and has the hitting ability and power to hit 40 home runs in any season. Brett Baty, a former top prospect, is 4/13 with a triple and three RBI. Belief out of Mets camp is he’s ready to break out, hitting 18 home runs in just 393 at-bats last year. Carson Benge homered in his debut and has real expectations as the top prospect in the organization.
All of that fails to mention the headliners of this lineup: Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Bo Bichette. Lindor’s switch-hitting prowess and consistent 30/30 production are nearly unmatched in baseball. Soto has become a 40-home run threat who leads the majors in OBP year after year. Bichette, a two-time batting champion with 25-30 home run potential, headlined the Mets’ acquisitions this offseason. He brings a contact-oriented approach that adds another layer to a lineup loaded with power.
The Mets’ big three is as good as any in baseball. Robert already has a superstar-level season on his baseball card, and the talent is clearly there for a return to form in a new home. The breakout potential of Benge, Alvarez, and Baty elevates this offense to dangerous levels. Even Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien make life difficult on opposing pitching. This is a 1-9 that should top most statistical rankings by year’s end.
They showed it in both extra-inning games; even if they’re slow early in the game, they’ll wake up eventually. They got three runs in the bottom of the 11th to walk off game two, and nearly did the same in game three as Polanco’s walk-off bid was caught about a foot in front of the right field wall.
If you got some Mets’ stock on your fantasy team in the draft, enjoy the ride. If not, try to get some as quickly as possible. This offense will provide more fantasy value than any in baseball.
Overreaction Three: Kevin McGonigle Will Win AL Rookie of the Year and Should Immediately Be Locked Into Lineups
Kevin McGonigle had a sensational debut weekend, one that could have been even better if Jackson Merrill hadn’t robbed him of his first career home run in game two of the season. Still, McGonigle put the league on notice with a four-hit debut and a two-RBI game two. He looks as dangerous as any hitter in the game from the jump.
Why it’s not an overreaction: Rookies always create interesting conversations throughout the year, as the league is sure to punch back at some point in the season. Prolonged rookie slumps are a common part of baseball, but some rookies aren’t built like others.
The fact is, what McGonigle did this weekend is completely in line with what earned him the designation as the #2 prospect in baseball. Largely considered the top hitting prospect of the 2020’s, McGonigle pairs elite bat speed, contact, and power to all fields with an incredibly advanced eye at the plate. He walked 59 times to 46 strikeouts in 2025, a rare feat at any level. Soto, Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were all near the 1:1 ratio last year. Only Geraldo Perdomo managed more walks than strikeouts.
That’s great company for McGonigle, but it’s the combination of discipline with bat-to-ball skills that makes him so lethal. He has lightning-quick hands to attack inside pitches, as seen on the second double of his debut that nearly left the yard. He covers the whole plate well and can drive the ball to all parts of the field. His 10-pitch at-bat that led to a two-run single in game two was as good as any at-bat you’ll see in the majors this year.
Not many rookies are lineup locks in fantasy baseball right away, but McGonigle isn’t any rookie. He has the ceiling of a multi-time batting champion and the power for 30+ home runs. Plus, he moves well on the base-paths and could generate 20+ steals with ease. Fantasy managers should start him with confidence going forward. Even with sensational starts by Chase DeLauter and Munetaka Murakami, the AL rookie of the year is McGonigle’s to lose.
Overreaction Four: JJ Wetherholt Will Win NL Rookie of the Year and Is More Valuable Than Konnor Griffin in 2026
JJ Wetherholt had just as good an opening weekend as McGonigle. He hit his first major-league home run in his debut, then drove in the two game-winning runs on a walk-off single in game two. All told, he finished 4/13 with the home run, four RBI, a steal, and two runs scored, headlining a surprisingly punchy Cardinals’ offense.
Why it’s not an overreaction: Wetherholt, like McGonigle, didn’t come out of nowhere this weekend. This is what he’s done throughout his baseball career, and why he enters the year as the #5 prospect in baseball.
Wetherholt won a Division 1 batting title as a sophomore in college, hitting .449. He carried that hit tool into the majors. Hitting .306 with 17 home runs in 109 games in 2025. Like McGonigle, he boasts good plate discipline and an ability to drive the ball to all parts of the field. He didn’t whiff more than 26% on any pitch type in the minors. Displaying his elite contact tool. Wetherholt’s ability to make good contact showed up on his debut home run, when he sent a pitch that was high and away to dead center.
Wetherholt has real 20/20 ability combined with a .300 batting average and .400 OBP potential. He’s major-league ready and looks it after just three games. While Konnor Griffin is a tantalizing talent that should be with the Pirates’ big club shortly, he’s only 19 years old. He’s had less time to adapt to professional pitching and become a polished hitter. His speed and power outdo Wetherholt, but the holes in his swing will make his first year more of a rollercoaster. Wetherholt’s approach, discipline, and contact are advanced enough to make him an immediate daily starter for fantasy managers.
Overreaction Five: The Brewers Will Be a Goldmine for Fantasy Managers en Route To Winning the Most Games in Baseball
The Milwaukee Brewers thumped the Chicago White Sox on opening weekend, scoring a league-high 29 runs. And yes, it’s the White Sox. But it’s a sign of things to come for a Brewers’ roster that is quietly the best they’ve had in years.
Why it’s not an overreaction: It starts with the lineup. Feisty, pesky, relentless, and deep, the Brewers showed their potential across all three games.
It starts with Brice Turang at the top, who had six hits and three doubles across the series. He has 50 steal upside and 20 homer potential. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are all-star caliber veterans to anchor the middle of the lineup. Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick have both flashed high upside and are off to hot starts. Mitchell is as big a post-hype sleeper as any in the game. His skillset is that of a 30/30 player, and health has been his only obstacle. His ascension into an all-star would take this lineup to new heights.
Don’t forget, the Brewers did all of this without their young superstar, Jackson Chourio. He’s currently on the shelf with a fracture in his hand, but gets named among young stars like Merrill, Roman Anthony, and James Wood as the future of the sport. When he returns, this offense gets even deeper and even scarier.
The Brewers have elite speed up and down the lineup. They’re a team that doesn’t rely on the long-ball, focusing on contact and base running, but they have guys that can leave the yard, too. They were down big on Sunday before Yelich highlighted a six-run eighth inning with a pinch-hit three-run bomb, completing the comeback. They’re never out of any game and make teams uncomfortable from start to finish.
Not only that, the Brewers’ pitching factory is consistently one of the best in baseball. Brandon Woodruff, when healthy, is a top 20 pitcher in the game. Jacob Misiorowski has stuff that is as tantalizing as any arm in baseball. He showed that with an 11-strikeout performance on opening day.
The rest of the rotation is a bit in flux, but with more high-end options than any team in baseball. Chad Patrick tossed 119 innings of 3.53 ERA ball in his rookie year. Kyle Harrison was the highlight of the Brewers trade that sent Caleb Durbin to the Red Sox, and he has real breakout potential as a former top prospect. Brandon Sproat was the target of the trade that sent Freddy Peralta to the Mets. If they don’t work out, Quinn Priester and Logan Henderson are in the wings. Priester was the Brewers’ 2019 first-round pick and pitched last year, with a 3.32 ERA in 157 innings. Henderson, the #7 prospect in the organization, dominated in 2025. Posting a 1.78 ERA and 33 strikeouts in just 25 innings of work.
Don’t go into the eighth inning with a deficit against the Brewers, either. Any team down late will have to face some combination of Abner Uribe, DL Hall, and Trevor Megill. Megill throws 103 with a wicked curveball and might be the second most electric of the group behind Uribe. Long story short, the Brewers have pitching depth in spades and a history of maximizing the potential of their pitching year after year.
This team is a goldmine for fantasy managers. Yelich, Contreras, Turang, Chourio, Woodruff, and Misiorowski are high on rosters, but players like Mitchell and Harrison are still largely on waivers. Be proactive and add them to the end of benches before someone else does. They both have huge breakout potential on a fantastic team. The Brewers do it year after year and deserve respect as one of the best organizations in baseball.
Main Photo Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images
