The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen has been lights out since the beginning of September. The bullpen did well in Milwaukee, pitching a combined 9 1/3 scoreless innings with courtesy of Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson and Paul Sewald. However, facing the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup will be a bigger test and a different situation. While they do not fare well against the Dodgers, it’s going to be tough but it doesn’t have to be if Arizona plays their cards right.
Diamondbacks and Dodgers Bullpen Breakdown
Bullpen ERA, FIP, XFIP
The Dodgers 4.06 ERA was the 13th-best in all of MLB this year. The Diamondbacks ranked 18th with a 4.22 mark. With FIP and xFIP, which are the fielding independent pitching and expected fielding independent pitching, both teams posted higher marks. The Dodgers’ 4.23 FIP and 4.19 xFIP ranked 15th and 13th respectively. The Diamondbacks, however, had a 4.34 FIP and 4.27 xFIP, ranking 21st and 27th.
FIP is based on walks, strikeouts and home runs, the things the pitchers have the most control over. Once the ball is in play, the pitcher has no control over what happens to the ball, how defenders react and of course the bloopers and lines. xFIP is one step further that uses expected home runs allowed based on the average home run per fly ball rate. What’s important to note is that both team’s pitching staffs have helped by their defence or improved. That leads to ERA being lower than their FIP numbers altogether.
Performance Improvements from Arizona
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen shut down the Brewers as six pitchers combined to go 6.1 scoreless innings to beat Corbin Burnes.
Snakes are one win from the NLDS. pic.twitter.com/cGcfCamai3
— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) October 4, 2023
From September 1 through the first two Wild Card matchups, the Diamondbacks bullpen has pitched to a 2.31 ERA, trailing the Dodgers’ 2.12 ERA and the Brewer’s 2.16. It’s the third-best ERA in the league over that span. Prior to that, their bullpen had a 4.69 ERA for the season. The bullpen has been on a roll that mediocre performances from Kyle Nelson (9.00 ERA, 7 IP) and Scott McGough (7.11 ERA, 6 1/3 IP) had them left off the NL Wild Card roster. Strong efforts from rookies Andrew Saalfrank, Bryce Jarvis and Luis Firas (1.98 ERA, 13 2/3 IP) and Ryan Thompson (0.75 ERA, 12 IP) not only helped the Diamondbacks in October but for years to come. From 2020 through 2022, the bullpen averaged a 4.75 ERA.
If Arizona hopes to get quality innings from Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, then Los Angeles enters this series with an entirely different game plan. Manager Dave Roberts will have options to use for both bulk innings as well as a collection of relievers. Evan Phillips, Brusadr Grarerol, Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller have been stellar for the Dodgers this season.
Los Angeles Won’t Hesitate In Using Their Bullpen
The turnaround of the Dodgers bullpen was a huge reason why they won 100 games and ran away with the division.
Dodgers bullpen ERA:
First half of the season 4.43 ERA (23)
Second half of the season: 2.23 ERA (1)
2023 bullpen > 2022 bullpen.
— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) October 3, 2023
Even with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, the Dodgers have no fear using their bullpen all postseason. Don’t be surprised to see Emmet Sheehan come in behind Kershaw to provide a few innings in relief. In the late innings, Los Angeles will likely rely on Brasier, Graterol and Phillips, who have been one of the best trio of relievers in baseball this season. Before Brasier’s promotion, relievers were 14-14 with a 4.98 ERA and 15 saves in 23 attempts. Their 9.46 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9 were among the top 11 teams in the Majors. But they ranked 26th in 1.25 HR/9. After his arrival, relievers went 24-11 with a 2.28 ERA. Then they bolstered the bullpen by the trade deadline acquisitions of right-hander Joe Kelly and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and Miller who returned from injury. Its depth and versatility played a key role in the team’s 10th division title in 11 years.
If it looks like anything like it has been for the past few weeks, the Diamondbacks or Dodgers might have enough pitching to make it to the NLCS.
Photo Credit: © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
