This is our daily series in which we scour the day’s matchups in order to find which ones to take action on. With surface-level dives into the starting pitchers, we determine which teams to back as well as throw in some bonus prop bets to make. Here are our baseball bets for July 26th!
Baseball Bets for July 26th
The Headliner: Braves @ Red Sox
Today’s slate is full of solid pitching matchups. Our first stop, however, sees the Atlanta Braves send Spencer Strider to the mound. In 20 starts, Strider has a 3.78 ERA across 116 2/3 innings with 189 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 3.77 ERA across 43 innings with 68 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. Strider has pitched much better on the road this season. In nine road starts, he carries a 2.94 ERA across 52 innings with 78 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. He will look to bounce back from his struggles since the All-Star Break. In two starts, he has a 6.75 ERA across 12 innings with 23 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. The defense has let Strider down tremendously this year, as his current FIP sits at 2.88.
After winning last night’s game, the Boston Red Sox look to win the series while sending Brayan Bello to the mound. In 16 starts this season, Bello has a 3.60 ERA across 90 innings with 78 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 3.22 ERA across 44 2/3 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP. Bello has performed better at home. In nine home starts, he sports a 3.14 ERA across 48 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. This will mark Bello’s second start against the Braves this season. In his first, he allowed two runs (both earned) on six hits, and one walk, and struck out five in six innings. While Strider’s defense has hurt him, Bello’s has helped him to the tune of a 4.36 FIP.
The Play: Braves ML (-162) – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Strider Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-130) – 0.5U
The Fight for Florida: Marlins @ Rays
After losing game one of this quick two-game series, the Miami Marlins look to right the ship by sending Sandy Alcantara to the mound. In 20 starts this season, Alcantara has a 4.70 ERA across 126 1/3 innings with 106 strikeouts and a 1.28 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.60 ERA across 43 innings with 35 strikeouts and a 1.49 WHIP. Alcantara has pitched worse on the road this season. In 11 road starts, he carries a 4.91 ERA across 66 innings with 55 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. The defense behind Alcantara has been the cause of most of his trouble this season. His FIP sits at an even 4.00, lower than his ERA for the first time in his career.
The Tampa Bay Rays will look to complete the series sweep by sending Zach Eflin to the mound. In 19 starts, Eflin has a 3.36 ERA across 112 1/3 innings with 113 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 3.51 ERA across 41 innings with 41 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP. Eflin has pitched at a Cy Young level at home. In 11 home starts, he boasts a 2.10 ERA across 68 2/3 innings with 72 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP. He, too, has pitched better than his ERA indicates. His season FIP sits at 3.00 for the season, and he leads baseball in pitcher wins (11) and WHIP. The Marlins were never going to finish on the blazing hot start they started the season with. Expect the Rays to complete the sweep today.
The Play: Rays ML (-175) – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135) – 0.5U
ChiTown Rivalry: Cubs @ White Sox
The Chicago Cubs look to sweep their two-game series against their crosstown rival by sending Marcus Stroman to the mound. In 21 starts, Stroman has a 3.09 ERA across 122 1/3 innings with 105 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.66 ERA across 36 2/3 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 1.39 WHIP. Stroman has virtually been the same pitcher at home or away. In 10 road starts, he carries a 3.11 ERA across 55 innings with 44 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP. Contrary to popular belief, Stroman has not been as good as his ERA has indicated this season. His FIP sits at 3.51, so the groundball pitcher has been bailed out by his defense a good bit this season.
The Chicago White Sox look to continue their losing ways by sending Lance Lynn to the mound. In 20 starts, Lynn has a 6.18 ERA across 115 innings with 139 strikeouts and a 1.44 WHIP. Over his last seven, he sports a 5.27 ERA across 42 2/3 innings with 59 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. Improvement! Lynn has also virtually been the same pitcher at home as on the road. In eight home starts, he carries a 6.11 ERA across 45 2/3 innings with 57 strikeouts and a 1.36 WHIP. Even with the fact that Stroman has pitched well above his head during a contract year, this should be an easy win for the Cubbies.
The Play: Cubs ML (-120) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Stroman Over 17.5 Outs (-143) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Spencer Strider, Brayan Bello, Sandy Alcantara, Zach Eflin, Marcus Stroman, Lance Lynn
