Gunnar Hoglund will be another player to take his baseball talents to the southern U.S. in 2021. The Ole’ Miss product has been lost for the foreseeable future thanks to Tommy John, but there is still plenty of great tools to make him a first-round prospect in this summer’s amateur draft. What makes him so intriguing despite the injury is one scouts are curious about. Hoglund has the talent that any MLB team would want in their farm system.
Gunnar Hoglund Draft Profile
Hoglund is a sturdy 6’4″, 220-pound right-handed pitcher originally from Hudson, Florida. The Pittsburgh Pirates initially tried to draft him as a late first-round pick in 2018, but instead, he chose to honor his college commitment to Mississippi. That looks like an excellent decision despite the injury, as Hoglund produced at an elite level for much of his college career in the very competitive SEC environment. He is ranked 22nd on MLB scouting’s draft rankings and ninth on Baseball America’s most recent list.
Strengths
Hoglund currently has a solid four-pitch mixture that includes a fastball, curveball, slide, and changeup. The fastball velocity has increased from the high-80s to low-90sand sits presently 92-95. That increased speed allows a slider in the mid-80s and changeup in the low-80s to function more effectively. All three pitches have 55/80 grades at the moment. His curveball pitch currently sports a 50 out of 80. He also has a good delivery that doesn’t look especially troublesome; repeating the pitching motion is vital for pitchers as they develop.
Overall, Hoglund has the profile of someone who can occupy several rotation spots in the middle or back-end of the starting pitching unit. The ceiling could be even higher when you consider modern training methods for pitchers. The important thing will be seeing if he retains the velocity spike from his junior season after elbow reconstruction surgery. We can only speculate on further improvements until he retakes the field in either 2022 or 2023.
Weaknesses
Sitting at 95 MPH on the fastball sounds great but is more average than it used to be. It shouldn’t be enough to limit Hoglund’s ceiling, and rule changes could permanently affect the pitching environment, but a lack of genuinely elite velocity is something to note. We also have to mention that while Hoglund’s ERA as a junior was good at 2.87, that was over an entire run higher than it was in the shortened 2020. Comparing the last two years is very difficult between the injury and pandemic.
Player Comparison
There aren’t many current players with Hoglund’s exact combination of repertoire and size, but consider Matt Harvey a possible starting point for comparisons. The ‘Dark Knight’s career took a severe downturn after 2015. However, there was a time where the former seventh overall selection was among baseball’s best arms. Harvey sported a 2.53 ERA with 449 strikeouts across his first 427 major league innings.
Harvey’s use of the sinker has increased dramatically over the years, but his early-career repertoire matches Hoglund’s current one almost perfectly. We can only hope that Hoglund’s career plays out more kindly than the former New York Mets star.
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