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Last Word On Sports

Sports News Since 2011. Honestly.

Last Word On Sports Logo

Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Year: 2012

NFC North Predictions: Detroit Lions Building a Foundation?

Posted on by Ben Kerr

This year’s Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are much more interesting than either the Packers or Vikings.  These two teams will put two contentious lines of thought to the test this season.  The fact that they play in the same division and are somewhat closely aligned in talent will only make it that much more interesting.

You win in the NFL by running the football.  You need to keep a quarterback on the bench for a few years before he is given a chance to start or else his confidence will be irrevocably ruined by the experience.  These are all NFL axioms which get tossed around and rarely challenged.  Dan Dierdorf can be found reciting each of them every Sunday, and no one bothers to fight with him.  In recent years some of these ideas have begun to be challenged and disproven.

There is another idea that will be at play this season that isn’t necessarily unique to the NFL.  In any sport when a team starts down the road to improvement (especially a young team)and begins to realize some newfound success there is a tendency by the public at large to continue to project future improvements on that team.  The fact that they showed improvement in one season is used as evidence to demonstrate they will continue to improve into the future.

This is a nice thought because it allows us to follow one of the predetermined patterns we have set for them and follow the popular commentary.  Either they are too young, or they have improved and are a year away. Or perhaps they are now one year past that ‘one year away’ label and now they are most likely labelled as ‘chokers’.  Such is how it goes.  The problem is in some cases it is true, which validates the story line that all teams should fall into these categories and that is simply not the case.

The Detroit Lions are that team this year.  Because they went from 0 wins to 2 wins to 6 wins to 10 wins now they must follow the next logical step and win a playoff game and show they are ready to be a Super Bowl contender.  It could happen.  But it is much more likely they take a step back or remain the same team.  Bill Barnwell on grantland.com has done excellent work this offseason chronicling season-to-season win total trends and the various factors that impact those totals.  One of the factors is simply the number of games you improved.  If you improved by four or more wins you are likely to win an average of 2 fewer games the following season  – it’s really as simple as that.  The reasons are varied but logical; for a team to improve in one season they are most likely the beneficient of some very good luck and a healthy team.

It is a nice thought because it allows us to believe in the theory of a young team’s growing together, but more often than not it is unfounded.  In the case of the Detroit Lions I am saying that it has already happened.  Of course they will try to make small improvements over last season, but so is every team in the NFL.

In the case of the Lions they have already become what they are.  Their may be room for minor improvements within the current roster but nothing will yield drastically different results.

The big questions are – have they done anything to fundamentally improve their roster and should we be expecting a big improvement out of any of their young players?  In the case of the Lions I believe the answer to both questions is “no”.  Let’s look at the second one first.  Is there anyone on the Lions we can expect to take a big leap forward?  The key players on the Lions already played stellar seasons last year leaving little room for improvement.  Calvin Johnson had a career year and was able to play all 16 games for only the second time in his career.  Matt Stafford was able to play a full season for the first time in his career and put up over 5,000 passing yards (only the 4th person in history to do so).  These were the two key players who spurred the Detroit turnaround, but elsewhere on the roster the Lions enjoyed extremely good health.

Concerning roster additions, I don’t think Detroit made any notable gains.  No marquee free agents were brought in, but the Lions did suffer a big loss when cornerback Eric Wright left for a big contract in Tampa Bay.  The Lions did address the offensive line in the first round of the draft, but it will not be known until the season starts if they have done enough to improve in that area.

One other concern is at running back where Kevin Smith returns and is the default starter.  I say “default” because the Lions would prefer that former second round draft picks Jahvid Best or Mikel Leshoure would return from injury and claim the job.  But expecting either of them to return and have a large impact would be foolish as their injuries have been severe and debilitating.

This doesn’t mean the Lions are certainly going to get worse this season, it just means that I don’t see any reason why they would take the leap to the next echelon of perennial playoff teams just yet.  The good news for the Lions this year is that their schedule will be one of the easiest in the league, benefiting from the fact they will play each team in the NFC West, which could serve to decrease those teams win totals by a win or two.  This could be enough to allow two NFC North teams to grab both wild cards spots this season, which is rare, but not unheard of (it happened just last season for the AFC North).

Unless you improve some aspect of your team you are unlikely to see continued improvement.  Of course if you have several young players all growing together that can lead to improvement.  I don’t think that is the case with the Lions.  Calvin Johnson likely reached his peak last season.  Matt Stafford didn’t leave much room to improve.  While they have these young skill position players, their o-line is old.  The defense is not all young either, and truthfully sucked.

Of course the Lions do one thing very well and they do it more than anybody else.  They pass the ball, and the fact that passing the ball yield more gains than running gives the Lions and edge over other teams right off the bat.  Stafford played 16 games for first time in his career, Johnson for only second time.  So much of their success will be contingent on them both staying healthy. I’m not ready to bet they will, so I’ll pick the Lions to finish in second place behind the first-place Packers in 2012.

 

To see my other predictions, you can find them in my column, “3rd String NFL”.

AFC South Predictions: From the Best to the Rest (Part Two)

Posted on by Ben Kerr

Yesterday I made my prediction that the Houston Texans would win the division.  But does that mean we don’t have quality in the rest of the AFC South?

So we started with the “Best”, and now we look at “The Rest”…

The problem with trying to predict how the Colts will perform in 2012 is that you have to take the entire 2011 season and throw it right out the window.

The hardest thing to do in the NFL is evaluate a team without a quarterback.  In 2011, the Colts didn’t have an NFL calibre QB, their entire team suffered for it, and somewhere along the way they gave-up, too.  Using 2011 as the basis to make predictions for the Colts just doesn’t make any sense.

Take the Chicago Bears for example.  When QB Jay Cutler went down with an injury last season the Bears closed out the year with Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown guiding them to a 1-5 record.  Does anyone point to this mark and use it to downgrade Chicago’s rating for 2012?  No, because they didn’t have their quarterback.  Same thing goes for Indy, only they went from having a league best QB covering up for many of their inadequacies to having a league worst QB exposing all of their flaws.

The upgrade the Colts will receive this year for the upgrade to Andrew Luck will be immense. Another factor that is going to keep the Colts from looking anything like they did last season is their head coaching change. One of my favorite things to look for is the upgrade from the lame duck head coach.  The fact of the matter is that Jim Caldwell was terrible in his stint in Indy and he followed the “typical horrible replacement coach for a good team” career path to a tee:

  • Year 1 – small boost due to minor tweaks on strong foundation
  • Year 2 – old foundation erodes as new coaches regime sets takes over
  • Year 3 – little is left that reminds you of the old coach and the team is usually on their way down

Of course Caldwell had a nearly impossible job in year three, but his Art Shell style and dead-man walking approach to coaching on the sidelines did little to inspire his players.  The upgrade the Colts will receive to a living, breathing head coach this season and the boost received from playing the talented Andrew Luck will be enough to keep the Colts out of the basement this year as many expect.

I expect the Colts to push for second place in the AFC South.

The Quarterback Conundrum…

Everyone loves young players.  They have potential and can improve right before our very eyes – how delightful!  When evaluating these players we tend to look at the bright side of the equation and often give the players the benefit of the doubt when maybe we shouldn’t.  The conversation surrounding these players at the QB position always revolves around how quickly they can improve and help their team to victory.  Really, the conversation should focus on “how much” they can improve, and not “how quickly”.  If we look at the player objectively, in most cases the answer would be “not that much”, because the learning curve is usually a very gradual one.

When a player comes into the league and bombs right out of the gate there is something fundamentally wrong.  For the most part these players are 22-years old when they enter the league and they have been playing the same position for their entire lives. If a player is truly gifted they always show flashes of their ability early in their career even if they have trouble harnessing it on a game-to-game or play-to-play basis.

In the cases of Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, what their teams are essentially hoping for is that they realize their potential quickly, and then become just league average quarterbacks.  These players are not superstars and they proved it last season. Gabbert had a much longer opportunity to prove himself last season and he essentially showed nothing (only three games surpassing 200 yards passing in 14 starts). I am not doubting that with good coaching, a solid supporting cast and a couple more years experience that he can’t become a decent QB.  But I think that is the most we can expect, and a decent QB is not helping you win anything in the NFL.

Locker of course has had much less of a chance to prove himself than Gabbert, but his upside doesn’t appear high either.  Locker completed only 54% of his passes in college including just 55% in his senior season.  The track record of QB’s with such low completion rates in college is extremely poor.  Regardless, Locker is a great athlete with a big arm so I have a harder chance condemning him to a failed career than Gabbert, but I still wouldn’t forecast great success for him. The inconsistent play of their quarterbacks will leave both Jacksonville and Tennessee on the outside looking in come playoff time.

Jacksonville has done little to improve over last year’s five-win squad.  Their improvements at receiver are minimal and only draft pick Justin Blackmon figures to make a big contribution.  Their average-at-best defense will be able to do little to help out their struggling QB and Jacksonville would be lucky to win five games again this season.

In Tennessee things are not quite so bleak.  The Titans have assembled a much more promising offense that features a strong pass-blocking offensive line, and quality skill players at every position that includes strong depth at wide receiver.  On the defensive side the Titans are solid but unspectacular.  Their main issue is their inability to rush the passer (2nd last in the league in sacks), which hurts them when they have to play strong competition (the Titans went only 2-5 against teams with a winning record).  The defense and skill position players are good enough to make a post-season run if they receive strong quarterback play.  I fear, however, that it is too much to ask for Locker to be consistent enough to take the Titans there in his first year as a starter.

So, I think Houston will take the division, followed by Indianapolis.  Tennessee looks good to take third, and unfortunately for Jags fans I have Jacksonville the furthest from the playoffs in the AFC South.

You can predictions for other divisions in my column, “3rd String NFL”.

Living Vicariously Through the Baltimore Orioles

Posted on by Max Warner

Like many Blue Jays fans, September has, for me, become the month each year when dreams of a successful season are crushed and when the harsh realities of fall begin to set it.  This year was actually different because the Blue Jays’ hopes and dreams were crushed in August with a pathetic 9-19 showing, and the news on August 28 that slugger Jose Bautista was officially lost for the season.

September is off to a rip-roaring start, as Toronto is 1-4 and has been shut out by such notable pitchers as Zack Britton and Joe Saunders.  So, as the losses mounted and attendance dwindled for the Blue Jays, I found myself searching for a reason to watch Major League Baseball in September.  Last night, I found that reason:  the Baltimore Orioles.

With the Blue Jays taking a day off from their quest to achieve the A.L.’s worst record, the only game I could find on T.V. yesterday was the Yankees-Orioles contest.  Thankfully, I chose to watch this game and was treated to one of the best matches of the baseball season.

The sixth sellout crowd of the season had gathered at Camden Yards for the unveiling of a statute of Cal Ripken Jr. and to see the Orioles, who trailed New York by one game for the A.L. East Division lead.  With Ripken watching in the stands and the O’s leading 6-1, the Yankees staged a five-run rally in the top of the 8th to even the score.  With all of the momentum stacked against Baltimore, with the might of baseball’s wealthiest and most powerful team ready to crush the poor Orioles for good, Baltimore staged an incredible rally.  Three of the first four Oriole batters in the bottom of the 8th smashed home runs, propelling Baltimore to a 10-6 victory and back into a tie with the Yankees for the A.L. East Division lead.  When Adam Jones hit his lead-off home run in the 8th, I actually jumped up from my seat to celebrate.  This was clearly the most meaningful game for the Orioles since the days when Ripken was patrolling the Baltimore infield.

Aside from the fact that Baltimore is a rival of the Blue Jays, there is a lot to like about the Orioles and their pennant run this year.  Baltimore plays in one of the most beautiful ballparks in the history of baseball, Camden Yards, a facility which changed the course of modern baseball stadium construction when it was opened in 1992.  The Orioles have a sharp, unique look with their orange and black uniforms, which has changed very little over the years.  Baltimore, like Toronto, is fighting to compete in the A.L. East against the mega payrolls of Boston ($173.2 million) and New York ($197.9 million) on a budget of $81.4 million, which ranks 19th in the Majors.  The Orioles have posted a losing record in 14 consecutive seasons and have finished higher than 4th in their division only once since 1998.  The O’s have not advanced to the World Series since 1983, the year of their last World Championship.  Once a popular ticket in town, the Orioles’ attendance was undercut by the arrival of the Washington Nationals franchise in the U.S. Capitol, less than one hour away, in 2005.  Baltimore was in the top five in A.L. attendance every season between 1989 and 2005; since 2006, the Orioles’ attendance has been 10th in the A.L. or worse every season except one.  Simply put, the Orioles have been one of the least successful clubs in all of baseball in the past 14 years, which allows even the most ardent fans of opposing teams to appreciate Baltimore’s success in 2012.

Other than Jones, whose .847 OPS and RF/9 of 2.81 make him one of the best center fielders in baseball, there are not many true stars on this Oriole squad.  Of the eight Oriole pitchers who have started nine or more games this year, only Chris Tillman has an ERA below 3.40 or a WHIP below 1.20.  Only three position players on the entire roster, Jones, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold, are carrying batting averages over.280.  Baltimore is second in the Junior Circuit in homeruns, but is below the A.L. average in hits, runs, batting average, OPS, runs allowed, hits allowed, and WHIP.   But that’s what makes Baltimore’s pennant run even more endearing:  they are finding ways to compete in “baseball’s toughest division” despite fielding a very ordinary, inexpensive collection of talent.

Adding to Baltimore’s appeal is the fact that none of the baseball “experts” predicted that they would be in a playoff position this year let alone leading their division.  ESPN and the Sporting News both predicted the O’s to finish last in the A.L. East, and at the beginning of the year, Sports Illustrated published an opinion from a baseball scout who stated that Baltimore was a “potential 100-loss team” which “doesn’t have a lot of talent”.

Thursday night at Camden Yards was the type of event that I somehow believed the Blue Jays would be hosting this year: a triumphant victory in a long-awaited, meaningful September game against an A.L. East powerhouse, in front of a packed stadium.   Instead of being jealous of the Orioles, I have decided to hop on their bandwagon and live out the excitement of the A.L. East pennant race with Baltimore.  Until the Blue Jays start caring about baseball again, I suggest that you do the same.

…and that’s the Last Word.

Follow me on Twitter: @MaxWarnerMLB

AFC South Predictions: From the Best to the Rest (Part One)

Posted on by Ben Kerr

Let’s start with the Best…

I spent all offseason trying to convince myself that the Houston Texans were not for real.  After years of constantly being projected as the next team that will “take a big step forward” and always falling shy of those high expectations, I almost couldn’t handle it when the team finally put a full season together and made the playoffs.  The Texans showed true toughness, which is the quality they lacked in previous seasons, by overcoming the loss of their main signal caller, Matt Schaub, and still managing to win a playoff game with an inexperienced back-up.  They even gave the Ravens all they could handle in the Division Championship game the following week.

My reason for still refusing to believe in Houston was that I was trying to rationalize their defensive improvement as purely scheme related.  Prior to the 2011 season the Texans finally took a step in the right direction toward improving their defense by bringing in Wade Phillips to run his 3-4 scheme.  I have written before about how scheme changes can produce immediate, but not necessarily lasting, results.  Often it takes the league a while to catch up to the new changes and adjust their game plans accordingly.  This is what I was trying to convince myself of – that the Houston improvement was due to the 3-4 switch and that last season was their peak, and it would be all downhill from here.  In reality I was fooling myself.

Phillips’ scheme and experience were certainly two huge factors in Houston’s defensive turnaround, but not as much as the talent level on that side of the ball.  Last season the Texans added JJ Watt and Brooks Reed, two players who teamed with Connor Barwin, Brian Cushing, Shaun Cody and Demeco Ryans (departed to Philly) to form a formidable front seven.  The players also fit the scheme well and the Houston defense took off like never before.  It is the talent of these young players, who should continue to improve, that will ensure that the Houston defense plays like a top-end unit again this season and possibly for many more in the future.

Houston also made questionable offseason decisions, which made me wonder if they could repeat.  Instead of locking up a dominating defensive player at a key position (DE/OLB  Mario Williams) the Texans instead decided to pay big money to running back Arian Foster.  This move, combined with the decision to let the entire right side of their offensive line leave, seemed highly risky.  Houston has had a very strong run game for years and part of that success was because of their consistent line play from year to year.  The run game has reached new heights with the addition of Foster, but one of the easiest players to replace in the league right now is a running back.  It would be difficult to find a dynamic player like Foster, but a dynamic running back is not necessary for success.  You simply need a good player, and the Texans already have one of those on their team in Ben Tate.

For a fraction of the cost of Foster, the Texans could have locked up Tate long-term and got, say, 85% of Foster’s production at a greatly reduced price.  It will be much tougher for the Texans to replace their strong offensive line players, and pretty much impossible for them to replace what they had with Mario Williams.

I still fear these moves may hurt the Texans in the long-run, but I think they will be able to make it through this season in fine shape.  Williams was not a big part of the Texans run last season because he played only five games and Houston as mentioned, has plenty of young talent to fill the gap.  On the offensive front Houston chose to let those linemen go with back-ups already on the roster ready to replace them.   I think I have to give the Texans some of the benefit of the doubt in this are considering the strong drafts they have put together in recent years.

The Texans may fail to improve upon last season, but they are clearly the class of their division.  A strong divisional record will propel them into the playoffs once again.  I am not as high on Houston once they reach the postseason as many prognosticators who are picking them to make the Super Bowl are, because they have never proven they can beat elite competition, but getting there should not be a problem.

So there you have the winners of the AFC South – the Houston Texans.  Check back tomorrow morning as I round out “The Rest” of the division.

You can find analysis of other divisions by visiting my column, “3rd String NFL”.

College Football Week 2 Picks

Posted on by

The first couple of weeks are always the toughest as we haven’t seen many teams on film and in action.  Expect a lot of fluctuation in your early season successes/failures, but don’t fret, your results should improve as we go along and learn a little bit more about these teams.

Iowa St +5 over Iowa

This is a big time rivalry game and I like to take the points here with what I consider as the slightly better team. Iowa opened up with a tight win on neutral field vs Northern Illinois. The Hawkeyes were down for most of this game and came back in the 4th quarter to squeak out a victory. What I got from this game was that the Iowa defense won’t be as good as in year’s past. They were allowing N.Illinois to move the ball at times and looked like they have a bunch of holes on defense. Iowa’s run game was good, but it will go up against one of the best set of LB’s in the country with Iowa St. The Iowa St. offense also played well in a win at home vs a good Tulsa team. They ran the ball effectively and QB Jantz made some nice throws when given time.  This game will be very tight and will go back and forth.  Having the +5 points should be good enough.

Note: Iowa St has done poorly in the past when playing as the visiting team.  However, I don’t rate this Iowa team like the Iowa of old.

Oregon St +7 over Wisconsin

I like the Beavers to potentially upset Wisconsin. The Badgers had a little bit of trouble winning last week. They will rely on their power run game and QB O’Brien will take some time adjusting to his new team and offense. The problem I see with Wisconsin is their defense. They did not look good at all in their last contest, and traveling to the West Coast to play an underrated Oregon St team might be trouble for the Badgers. I like this one to be a close one as well, but with the home team getting a TD here, that tips me in their favour.

Louisiana Tech -3.5 over Houston

The line on this game has lost value already. Houston had opened up as a favourite and now after that stunning loss to Texas St, they have become underdogs at home. Louisiana Tech is a darkhorse this year. They have the pieces to upset a lot of teams and were a trendy pick last week against Texas A&M, but the game was postponed due to the threat of Hurricane Irene. I like Louisiana Tech to be a lot better than Houston. Houston losing their star QB and Head Coach was too much for this team and it will take them a while to get back to their winning ways.

Illinois/Arizona St U49

I look for many Illini games to go under the total frequently this year. They bring a fierce defense to the table that has to keep this team in games until the offense figures itself out. Illinois struggled to produce points against an average W. Michigan defense and it won’t be any easier on the road at Arizona St. Arizona St should be able to slow down the Illini, but they will have trouble scoring as well. I look for this to be a tight, low-scoring game here, and 49 points should be too much.

Ole Miss -7 over UTEP

Both teams last week were better than expected. UTEP kept close with Oklahoma for the most part, and Ole Miss blasted away on Central Arkansas. I was really impressed with new Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze and new JUCO transfer QB, Bo Wallace. I really think this Ole Miss offense will be able to score on a lot of teams and they should be able to shut down the one-dimensional UTEP offense here.

Well, good luck everyone.  As I said at the outset, the start of the college season is sometimes difficult, but hang in in there and we will hone our picks as the season plays itself out.

 

Legal Stuff:  These picks are for entertainment purposes only.  No picks are guaranteed.  Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.  Only bet with reputable sports books or on Proline.  We take no responsibility for the success of the picks – it’s gambling after all.

Top Shelf Prospects: Winnipeg Jets

Posted on by Ben Kerr

Welcome to today’s edition of “Top Shelf Prospects” – a team-by-team look at the top prospects in the NHL. Today we complete our alphabetical journey with the 30th and final NHL team to be reviewed, the Winnipeg Jets.

As always you can find a complete listing of my previous articles here. Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since then, and my reports on them will not have changed. What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question. I will also bring you one sleeper pick – a player who was either drafted in the 4th-round or later, or was an undrafted free agent signing who I pick as my darkhorse to make the NHL. For those wondering, the cut-off for what is or isn’t a prospect is typically about 45-50 NHL games played or being 25 years old. These are not static rules though, as I may make some exceptions depending on the circumstances.

2012 Draft Picks Reviewed:
Jacob Trouba, Lukas Sutter, Scott Kosmachuk,

 

Top Prospect: Mark Scheifele, Center
Born Mar 15 1993 — Kitchener, ONT
Height 6.03 — Weight 184 — Shoots Right
Selected by the Winnipeg Jets in round 1 #7 overall, at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

Mark Scheifele was a surprise selection by the Jets at 7th overall in the 2011 Draft. As the first player drafted after the team announced their return to Winnipeg, and having such a high draft position, the pressure on Scheifele going forward will be immense.  Scheifele came to training camp last year looking to justify his selection, and had an excellent pre-season.  He even made the Jets team playing in 7 regular season games.  Unfortunately he wasn’t quite ready for the increased speed of regular season hockey, and after 7 games and just 1 goal, he was sent back to the Barrie Colts and the OHL.  Scheifele had a nice season in Barrie despite dealing with some injury issues.  He also missed some regular season games to play for Team Canada at the World Junior Tournament where he was a point per game player and helped the team win a Bronze Medal.  Scheifele would finish the year playing in the AHL playoffs for the St. John’s Ice Caps, but again seemed overwhelmed by the speed of the pro game.  This is not that unusual though for an 18 year old rookie, and it is not even really something that Jets fans should be overly concerned about.

Finding a big, talented, offensive centre has become extremely difficult in the NHL.  Having skill and strength up the middle has always been a key to creating a Stanley Cup Contender.  Scheifele has the potential to be that type of player.  He combines excellent size, long reach, soft hands, and quick stickhandling to protect the puck and buy time to make plays.  Scheifele has great vision, and tremendous passing ability.  He quite simply is the type of pivot who makes his linemates better.  Scheifele is a good shooter, who has an accurate wrister with a very good release.  He could stand to add some power to his shot, and he could stand to shoot more often as well, as he always seems to want to be the playmaker.  A little more selfishness would actually help his game.

Scheifele’s skating is a major strength in his game.  He has shown improved speed and acceleration this season, and would now be classified as good in both areas.  His biggest strength though is his excellent balance, and powerful stride.  This allows Scheifele to protect the puck in the cycle game, and drive the puck through traffic and to the front of the net.

Scheifele is a willing backchecker who understands defensive concepts, and has solid positioning in his own end.  He is involved physically and in puck battles, but he needs to add more upper body strength to be truly effective in this area.  He has shown a willingness to sacrifice though, to block shots and to put his body on the line to win games.

Overall Scheifele is an outstanding prospect.  Given his performance in camp and preseason last year, expectations are high that he will make the Jets this year.  However given his performance in the AHL playoffs, or lack thereof, I’m not 100% convinced that he is ready for a full NHL season.  I’d peg his chances to make the team at about 50/50, with another season in Barrie, and playing for Canada’s World Junior team again, a big possibility.

 

Top Prospect #2; Patrice Cormier, Centre
Born Jun 14 1990 — Moncton, NB
Height 6.02 — Weight 205 — Shoots L
Selected by the New Jersey Devils in round 2, #54 overall at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft
Traded to the Atlanta Thrashers in February 2010.

Patrice Cormier was finally able to see some significant ice time this past season after two years of limited action. In 2009-2010 Cormier’s elbow on Mikael Tam led to a suspension for the remainder of the QMJHL season. In 2010-11 a broken foot and a concussion limited Cormier to just 32 games (split between the AHL and NHL). This season, Cormier was able to play a total of 77 games between the AHL Regular Season, Playoffs, and brief callups to the NHL and his development was really helped as a result.

Cormier is a decent skater with good top end speed, balance and agility.  However he needs some work on his first step and his acceleration.  His offensive game is defined as very straightforward.  He is a good forechecker who is often first on the puck, and pressures defencemen into making mistakes.  However, he doesn’t seem to have the offensive tools to be a top 6 player.  His shot is accurate, but his release is average at best, and the time he takes to “load up” his shot allows goalies the time to prepare for it.  His vision and playmaking skills are also average.

Cormier’s future lies in playing a defensive role.  He is good on faceoffs at the AHL level, and with continued work in the circle should be able to develop this skill at the NHL level.  He is a gritty, agitating player who gets under an opponents skin and plays a pests game.  He is involved physically both during the play and after the whistle.  Cormier’s defensive positioning is very good and he is a willing shot blocker.  The area he must improve is maintaining discipline.  Cormier must play the game on the edge without crossing it in order to be an asset to his team.

I expect Cormier to spend another season shifting between the AHL and NHL, before finally cracking the big club for good.  Due to the icetime he has missed over those two seasons, he is still playing catchup instead of being where he should be at this age.

 

Sleeper Prospect:  Paul Postma, Defence
Born Feb 22 1989 — Red Deer, ALTA
Height 6.03 — Weight 195 — Shoots Right
Selected by the Atlanta Thrashers in round 7 #205 overall at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft

Paul Postma has always possessed the offensive tools necessary to be an NHL defenceman. He would make an excellent powerplay trigger man as he has an absolute bomb of a slap shot and an excellent one-timer that has tortured AHL goalies over the last three seasons. Postma also has decent puck handling and puck protection skills, and is a decent enough passer from the blue line. His skating has improved from his WHL days, and he would be seen as having good top end speed, and acceleration today. His agility and quickness allow him to walk the line and open up shooting lanes for himself. He also is able to join the rush, often looking to unleash a quick and accurate wrister, or his big slap shot as the trailer on the play.

Defensively Postma still has much to prove.  He has certainly curbed his style, but is still far too much of a riverboat gambler in his own zone, leaving his man open in an attempt to make a big play and start the transition game.  He also could stand to add some major upper body strength this year, as bigger AHL forwards regularly push him around in the corners and in front of the net.  He tries, but is simply incapable of dealing with power forward type players right now.  He has certainly improved his positioning and shot blocking ability, so equal dedication to the gym this offseason could lead to some big improvements for Postma.

The time has come for Postma to prove whether or not he is capable of being a full time NHLer. The offence is certainly there, but does he have enough defensive ability to play third pairing minutes at even strength? After 3 full AHL seasons Postma will be given every opportunity to take a job and run with it in Jets camp. With Zach Bogosian injured there is even an extra spot available on the Jets defence. Its now or never for Postma to prove whether he can be a full time NHL player for the Jets, or if he will be a journeyman AHLer.

 

The Jets have two top notch prospects in Scheifele and Jacob Trouba.  However the depth behind those players is lacking.  Cormier, Carl Klingberg, Spencer Machacek, are all decent prospects, but look more to be bottom 6 players than true top line threats.  Ivan Telegin has shown offensive skill at the OHL level, but it remains a question if his game will translate to the AHL and levels, he’s a major boom or bust project. The remaining prospects seem to be middling depth players at this point. A big factor though in this lack of depth is the fact that the Jets/Thrashers franchise has graduated players like Evander Kane, Bryan Little, Ale-x Burmistrov, and Zach Bogosian to the NHL so quickly.  They shouldn’t really be penalized for having a number of very good 1st round draft picks recently, picks who were able to have an NHL impact very quickly.  The new Winnipeg Jets are well along in their rebuild, and as their young core improves together they can grow into a solid squad.  They look to be especially strong on the blueline going forward, and the next job will be time to add more punch to the offence, and determine if Ondrej Pavelec can carry the team in goal.  The Jets are building a squad that will keep the energy and decibel levels up in the MTS Centre for years to come.

Now that we have finished our look at all 30 teams, stay tuned as I rank the systems from 1-30, and the various prospects reviewed from 1-50 over the coming days.

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastWordBKerr.

Game Of The Week: #24 Florida Gators At Texas A&M Aggies

Posted on by Lindsay Higgins

Not only will Texas A&M be playing their first SEC conference game, they’ll be playing their first game of the 2012 season on Saturday. Their scheduled season opener against Louisiana Tech was postponed to October 13 because of last week’s hurricane.

The Aggie Offense: This is probably one of the hardest previews I’ll have to write all year, seeing that A&M has a new quarterback and he hasn’t played a game yet. (Normally I’d choose another game to preview, but… well, look at the lineup of games for the week.) Fortunately for redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel, he has some experienced teammates on offense, most notably WRs Ryan Swope and Uzoma Nwachukwu and RB Christine Michael. Swope caught for 1,207 yards and 11 TDs a year ago, while Michael rushed for 899 yards and 8 TDs before suffering an ACL injury. Manziel is the first freshman to start at QB for the Aggies since 1944. The offensive line is talented and experienced, so the blocking should be there for the running game to take some pressure off of the quarterback.

The Aggie Defense: Under a new coaching staff, the defense is changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The team’s top two pass rushers a year ago, LB Sean Porter and DE Damontre Moore, combined for 18 sacks and both return to College Station. The Aggies led the nation in sacks with 51. MLB Jonathan Stewart also returns; he led the team with 98 tackles last season. A&M allowed an average of 276.3 passing yards per game last year, and there are no returning starters in the secondary. I expect the Aggies defensive front to pressure Florida’s inexperienced quarterback, but the defensive backfield could still be vulnerable to the big play.

*Note: LB Steven Jenkins and S Howard Matthews were to be suspended for the game against Louisiana Tech. Coach Kevin Sumlin has said their suspension will take place when that game is played, not against Florida.

The Gator Offense: After rotating last week against Bowling Green, coach Will Muschamp named Jeff Driskel his starting quarterback. The Gators are still getting accustomed to the new offense brought in by Brent Pease, formerly of Boise State, to revitalize what was an anemic offense last season. Against Bowling Green last weekend, Florida managed 24 points- not what SEC fans expect against a MAC team. I don’t expect them to be able to pound the ball with Mike Gillislee the same way against the A&M front. Getting receivers in space against the Aggies’ secondary may be their best bet, provided that the offensive coaching staff is confident in Driskel’s accuracy. One interesting note on the Florida offense, CB Loucheiz Purefoy played some WR last weekend. Coach Muschamp says that’s something he’ll continue doing.

The Gator Defense: With 10 returning starters, Florida has a definite edge on defense, despite not having played all that well against Bowling Green (one forced turnover, no sacks, two dropped INTs). A&M’s offensive line versus Florida’s defensive front is a battle to watch. A&M is going to have to hope they can run the ball effectively, because having a redshirt freshman quarterback throwing the ball against the Gators’ secondary is not likely to end well for the Aggies.

 

Prediction: If the game were being played in the Swamp, I’d have Florida by a touchdown or more. Probably more. Even in College Station, I expect Florida to take it. Florida 21, Texas A&M 16

Italy's Road to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil

Posted on by Frank Giuliano

GLI AZZURRI

After a wonderful Euro 2012 in Ukraine and Poland, it’s time to get to the qualification round of the World Cup in Brazil 2014, which means that there will be no league games in the major European leagues this week.

Italy travels to Sofia, Bulgaria, on September 7 to open their World Cup qualification, followed quickly by the fixture against Malta in Modena, Italy on Tuesday, September 11. These two games are expecting to be easy wins for the men in blue as the Azzurri boss aims to build from the EURO Cup. The tactician has made several call-ups for the two games which include plenty of fresh faces. Mr. Prandelli has done a good job so far mixing the team with talented youngsters and veterans. Up front has been completely revamped since the Euro in June as Mario Balotelli is on a leave due to eye surgery and Antonio Cassano has also been left out. Newcomer, Lorenzo Insigne, “the wonder kid” I like to call him, will debut at the senior level. This young lad is swiftly demonstrating his potential more than others have predicted. In recent years, it seemed as if Italian soccer was in trouble with developing youth. On the contrary, as there is a bright future waiting ahead as there is a lot of quality on this team. Prandelli opted not to include one quality player, namely Stephan El Shaarawy of Milan.

 

Here is the list of players along with their ages, who have been drafted by Prandelli:

GOALKEEPERS: BUFFON (JUVENTUS, 34), SALVATORE SIRIGU (PSG, 25), VIVIANO (FIORENTINA2, 27)

DEFENDERS: ASTORI (CAGLIARI, 25), BALZARETTI (ROMA 31), BARZAGLI (JUVENTUS 31), BONUCCI (JUVENTUS 25), CASSANI (FIORENTINA, 29), MAGGIO (NAPOLI 30), OGBONNA (TORINO, 24)

MIDFIELD: DE ROSSI (ROMA, 29), DIAMANTI (BOLOGNA, 29), GIACCHERINI (JUVENTUS, 27), MARCHISIO (JUVENTUS, 26), PIRLO (JUVENTUS, 33), NOCERINO (MILAN, 27), POLI (SAMPDORIA, 23), VERRATTI (PSG, 20)

FORWARDS: OSVALDO (ROMA, 26), PAZZINI (MILAN, 28), GIOVINCO (JUVENTUS, 25), BORINI (LIVERPOOL, 21), DESTRO (ROMA, 21), INSIGNE ( NAPOLI, 21)

 

OTHER MATCHES:

Group A

Croatia 20:15 Macedonia

Group A

Wales 20:45 Belgium

Group B

Malta 20:00 Armenia

Group B

Bulgaria 20:45 Italy

Group C

Kazakhstan 18:00 Republic of Ireland

Group C

Germany 20:45 Faroe Islands

Group D

Estonia 20:00 Romania

Group D

Andorra 20:30 Hungary

Group D

Netherlands 20:30 Turkey

Group E

Albania 20:30 Cyprus

Group E

Slovenia 20:30 Switzerland

Group E

Iceland 20:45 Norway

Group F

Russia 17:00 Northern Ireland

Group F

Azerbaijan 18:00 Israel

Group F

Luxembourg 20:45 Portugal

Group G

Liechtenstein 19:00 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group G

Lithuania 20:15 Slovakia

Group G

Latvia 20:30 Greece

Group H

Montenegro 20:30 Poland

Group H

Moldova 20:45 England

Group I

Georgia 19:00 Belarus

Group I

Finland 20:30 France

 

8 September 2012

Group A

Scotland – Serbia

Group B

Denmark – Czech Republic

 

11 September 2012

Group A

Belgium – Croatia

Group A

Serbia – Wales

Group A

Scotland – FYROM

Group B

Bulgaria – Armenia

Group B

Italy – Malta

Group C

Austria – Germany

Group C

Sweden – Kazakhstan

Group D

Hungary – Netherlands

Group D

Romania – Andorra

Group D

Turkey – Estonia

Group E

Cyprus – Iceland

Group E

Norway – Slovenia

Group E

Switzerland – Albania

Group F

Israel – Russia

Group F

Northern Ireland – Luxembourg

Group F

Portugal – Azerbaijan

Group G

Bosnia and Herzegovina – Latvia

Group G

Greece – Lithuania

Group G

Slovakia – Liechtenstein

Group H

England – Ukraine

Group H

Poland – Moldova

Group H

San Marino – Montenegro

Group I

France – Belarus

Group I

Georgia – Spain

NHL 2012-2013 Season Predictions: Eastern Conference

Posted on by Maksim Vasilyev

Despite the distinct possibility of not having hockey to enjoy in the very near future, let’s make some predictions anyway. Since we did some reviews of the professionals from last season and the NHL Yearbooks are hitting the shelves as we speak, we can at least talk about hockey, even if the games are but a pipe dream.

The Eastern Conference will be our first target of highly detailed guesswork. This is extremely difficult because to me there are no really “bad” teams per se, though some cases can be made for the Islanders.  I think that spots 9-14 are interchangeable.

The Southeast is the toughest one for me to deliberate on. The Capitals, Tampa, and Carolina are all improved and very competitive, so do not be shocked to see any of these teams take this division. The Atlantic I will hand over to the NY Rangers while Boston will still be the champs in the Northeast. This is going to be very hard to pin point the exact position of each team, but I do have a crystal ball I got from a Russian gypsy back in the 90s while on a moonshine binge, so we should be fine.

15) NY Islanders

You know what tells a story? The amount of goals you score and the amount of goals you do not score. The Islanders had a big problem on both ends of the ice in that department. Being -52 as a team while only being able to score 203 goals is not a good sign that things are getting better. With no clear numero uno goaltender and losing Parenteau it seems things will not get better any time soon. Combine this with being in one of the toughest divisions of in the NHL, the Atlantic, this team will have to take another step back before being competitive. You have to see a very bright future with Tavares leading the way, but not next season.  Maybe they can pull an “Oilers” and start stock-piling number one picks to complement JT?

14) Florida Panthers

I may get a bit of flack for this pick, but to be honest, let’s look at what we have.  We have a team that was -24 combined and only scored 203 goals. This was also with having some good years from mediocre players, most of whom over-achieved.  The goaltending seems to be a bit of a mess here, too. I know they got a young guy, Huberdeau, coming in that should spark the offense, but to me this will not be enough. The reasons are the divisional rivals in Tampa Bay, Washington, Winnipeg, and Carolina. The stiff competition of its division rivals and the fact that the team was mediocre at best playing away from home, sums up to me a disappointing season.

13) Montreal Canadiens

Scott Gomez will make a difference this year…I can feel this. The difference he will make will be a few more goals than last year. I think this team can be better and has young talent, but it will be a slow climb. Price will carry the load for a long time and the line of Cole, Pacioretty, and Desharnais is very promising. They do need a player that can hop over or at the very least hover near the 80-point mark before we can consider this team a playoff team. On the bright side of things, to me it is always tougher to get a good defense, which Montreal certainly has. There is no pressure on this team and we saw what that did for the Panthers last year. Secondary scoring will be the Achilles heel here, so do not expect too much from my favorite city up north.

12) Winnipeg Jets

Young team with some very good offensive players that is looking to give the hungry fans an even better show then last year. The injury to Enstrom really hurt last season. He is good for 40 plus points this year. The important part is that he is very effective on the powerplay, however the back-end is not the issue for this team. The real issue is scoring goals. Evander Kane and Blake Wheeler stepped up last season, but that is not enough. Kane needs to progress into a dominant force and score in the 35-40 goal range. Right now they have a bunch of decent players who can put up 50 points, but we need 10 or 15 points more from a bunch of them to get a sniff of playoff hockey. The two Russian MIGs, err, Jets, especially need to have better seasons.  Burmistrov and Antropov definitely need to raise their games, and while some people doubt him, I think you can trust Pavelec to be a good enough goalie. Let us stay on the safe side here and let this team get seasoned a bit more.

11) Toronto Maple Leafs

This team started last season very well but finished a bit flat and out of the playoffs. I do not think you have the pieces here to be called a playoff team, mainly due to goaltending woes. The bright side is that I like the trade to acquire JVR. Defensively the team is not going to suck. It is difficult going into a season with a big question mark in net, but that may be resolved with a trade. The bright side is that I think the top six unit is better than it was last year. The approach to this team has been slow and steady, but  a solid number one goaltender would certainly speed up this process, which is important considering how hungry Leafs fans are for the playoffs. It will not be this year, unfortunately, because Kessel/Lupul will miss 10-18 games and that will be too much.  My gypsy crystal ball has spoken!

10) Tampa Bay Lightning

Yes, this team got better in goal, and yes, they can score goals like it’s no one’s business. The problem here is that defense is still a question mark. Carle and Salo are solid at the back-end, but will that help them turn around one of the worst defensive teams in the East? I’m not a believer yet.  Salo is a question mark to play more than 65 games and Carle was never known for his shut-down role to begin with. Lindback has yet to get his feet drenched in the NHL (has not played more than 22 games) and while he had decent numbers, he did not have elite numbers playing behind one of the best defensive teams in the league. With any cracks in the defense in front of him, the dam might just break.  A tough Southeast division certainly doesn’t help here. Look for Tampa to fight for a playoff spot all the way to the end, but fall a bit short.

9) New Jersey Devils

Look, I am not saying Brodeur does not have anything left in the tank, though most others are.  The problem here is that most people think that Parise was the glue that kept the ship from sinking, but I don’t think that is the case. The Devils have a new offensive leader and his name is Kovalchuk. He led them in scoring in both the regular season and in the playoffs. Do not forget about Patrik “under-the-radar-for-the-last-decade” Elias and Travis Zajac. With Adam Henrique proving he is the real deal in the playoffs, there is plenty of offense to be found here. Marty and Hedberg don’t give up much and you know the Devils will have an excellent defensive game. I am probably shooting myself in the foot here, but I think the Devils will suffer from the extra tough Atlanticdivisionitis. This will force them to miss the playoffs by a game or two, but don’t come back with pitch forks if they make it.  I blame it on that gypsy.

8)  Buffalo Sabres

Remember the hype from last year? The money that was spent? Well it is sort of back this year. Look, it was a bad start that led to a hugely disappointing season. The good thing about a new season is that it is a new season and they are tied for first overall – temporarily. They shipped out the bad apples and got a lot tougher during the off-season. Miller is as good as you get in the NHL and he proved it with the second-half play. The team also has young talent that will make a leap this year. Ennis, Hodgson, Foligno, Grigorenko, and Adam are NHL ready players and will play for the Sabres this year. How much will depend on what they can bring and how consistent they can be. This squad will be much better and with Montreal and Toronto being a bit on the softer side, look for this team to get back into the playoff scene.

7) Carolina Hurricanes

The thing is that when you pick up talent like Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin, while not losing anything important from your last season roster, you win. The fact is that without Semin and Jordan, the Canes had 82 points. That is 10 points out of the 8th spot from last season and probably this coming season, too. The Southeast is not as top-heavy as the Atlantic so these games can go either way. You have an improved PK and a helluva improved powerplay (that was 20th last season). The defensive game needs to be improved, but Jordan and Semin can play defensively. The best thing about this team is the availability of quality centers they can pair alongside Semin. I am not saying Semin will be a 40-goal scorer again, but he will score 30 and might flirt with 40 (at least if he wants $7 million next year). He will score more goals than anyone else had on the team last year. This move also adds depth to the top 9 and that is always a recipe for winning. Playoffs…play-offs.

6) Ottawa Senators

Alfredsson is back and that is all you really needed to hear, right?  Well, not quite.  Spezza resurrected himself last season and rose back to that elite status. If he does not get hurt and stay healthy, he is magic sauce. With Spezza, Turris, and Zibanejad as the projected top-3 centers, this team has enough steam to lift itself up to 6th place in the east. Another young gun is Silfverberg, who should make a debut as well. If Anderson can continue to have Ottawa’s faithful fall in love with his consistent play, we can count on this team being more than a playoff bubble team.

5) Philadelphia Flyers

Everyone knows the good, the bad, and the ugly with this team. The blue line is thinner than OJ’s defense, but just like OJ had a good lawyer, the Flyers have their own Bobby Shapiro in their offense. Pronger is the big question mark here; it does not look good, but there is still some hope here that he may play again. Bryzgalov is another question. If he plays a bit better than he did last year, we are looking at a very scary team. It is crazy how in just one year we are questioning Bryzgalov’s goaltending instead of praising it, but that is how this story goes. I am sure Penguin fans will not be too excited to be having Luke Schenn playing vs Crosby six times this year. He delivers pain. Flyers do not expect anything less than playoffs, but only with a bit more ruckus in the playoffs would it be considered a winning season here.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyJyVNFqwM8&w=420&h=315]

4) Pittsburgh Penguins

I know Crosby and Malkin might play over 70 games each next season, which is scary considering both can put up over 110 points and make it look easy. The problem here is the back-end. Fleury is not the all-world goaltender Pittsburgh have been waiting for, and the defense in front him is not all world either for that matter. They can score tons of goals, but last year the team posted a .903 save percentage as a team – not very good. This is not to say that simply outscoring your opponent every game will not do the trick, it can and it will. The loss of Jordan Staal hurts those intangibles, such as team depth, that help you win. The penalty kill is very important and Crosby might have to play some PK time. Consider that Staal averaged two minutes per game killing penalties – quality like that is hard to find and replace. There is not enough here to take down the NY Rangers to win the division.

3) Washington Capitals

Ovie and Backstrom. That is all. This team will go as much as these guys will. I think Adam Oates is the right man for the job to jump-start the red machine. Adam Oates did wonders for the Devils powerplay and he will fix this one, too. 18th overall powerplay is not the best this team can do. Mike Green will be moved about on the powerplay to make him as effective as possible, and if you have not noticed the trend yet, I am a strong believer that a strong powerplay equals wins. Mike Ribeiro finally gives the Capitals a true number two center. This will give more time for Ovie and Backstrom to play with each other (on the ice…). While there are some wild cards on the players’ side, the goalie situation to me looks very good. In Holtby I trust. Some may compare him to Crawford and the woes he had last season, but to this I say “nonsense”. Holtby is one of the most focused goaltenders I have seen in a long time, and guys like that tend to be consistent. The fact is that even if he plays well, this will not be enough to keep the job if Neuvirth plays well, too. We saw what competition between the goalies can do on the Blues. The best goaltending the Capitals had yet, look for a tight squeeze, but winning the Southeast is in the books.

2) Boston Bruins

Well, it seems like nothing ever changes for the Bruins, right? Oh, yeah, Tim Thomas went into hiding. All should fall apart, but not-so for Boston. It seems like they have been waiting for this, or something like this, to happen for a while now, holding on to Rask for dear life. Rask will be very good – he has no reason not to be. The team in front of him is almost identical to the one that won the cup. They do need a bit more from the top six as far as scoring, and I think Rich Peverley is a great candidate to break-out if healthy, for 50 points and will move land himself in the top six. Look for them to dominate their division and slide in as 2nd in the East.

1) NY Rangers

What could make losing Marian Gaborik for the first two months of a season seem like no big deal? Having Rick Nash slide in to take his spot. To me Rick Nash will become a game breaker once again, while he is paired with Brad Richards. Fact is that Rangers were winning without him and were very, very good. Nash gives them another explosive option and that scoring threat to help Gaborik that they desperately lacked. Chris Kreider is expected by the NY fans to challenge for the Calder trophy and should be fun to watch. No matter how you look at this team, they got better. The young defense got a tough lesson in the playoffs and the offensive unit has not looked this good since 94, while if all of that breaks down you still have Henrik Lundqvist. There is hardly anything that will satisfy this Broadway show other than a Cup final as most fans will agree. The Atlantic is theirs to take, so is the East, and so is the President’s Trophy. I see zero weakness in this team. My Stanley Cup favorite.

There you have the Eastern Conference.  Check back soon for my breakdown of the Western Conference.  If you need some good bathroom material, why not check out my column, “NHL Happy Hour”, and see how various players can be compared with vodka.  And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter – @LastWordOnNHL.