Editorial (December 9, 2017) – On the weekend of MLS Cup 2017, 20 teams are focused on anything but MLS Cup. Tomorrow, December 10th will bring a half day transfer window. On Monday, every MLS team will have to release their protected list for the 2017 MLS Expansion Draft, that will take place on Tuesday, December 12th. Los Angeles FC will get to select five players from other team’s rosters. Here’s what the Colorado Rapids Expansion Draft situation looks like.
2017 Colorado Rapids Expansion Draft Protected Roster Preview
A few Mondays ago, the Rapids made significant roster decisions for the start of the 2017-2018 MLS off-season. They chose to retain 18 players. The current roster is as follows:
GK (2): Tim Howard (DP), Zac MacMath
DEF (5): Mike da Fonte, Kortne Ford (HG), Eric Miller, Axel Sjoberg (INT’L), Jared Watts
MID (7): Micheal Azira, Johan Blomberg (INT’L), Nana Boateng (INT’L), Marlon Hairston, Sam Hamilton, Ricardo Perez (HG), Dillon Serna (HG)
FWD (4): Stefan Aigner (INT’L), Dominique Badji (INT’L), Caleb Calvert, Shkelzen Gashi (DP, INT’L)
They will have to choose who to protect and who to expose for LAFC to potentially take in the Expansion Draft on Tuesday.
So how does the Expansion Draft work this year?
You can read all the complicated rules here. Basically, LAFC gets to select 5 players from other MLS teams. Once a team has a player selected, the rest of their roster is off the board: existing MLS teams can’t lose more than one player. With 22 teams in the league, less than 25% will even be affected by the draft.
Teams can protect up to 11 players. Homegrowns on the Supplemental/Reserve Roster at the end of the 2017 season are automatically protected. So are Generation Adidas players who have not graduated from the program. Designated Players aren’t automatically protected, but most have no-trade clauses in their contracts. If LAFC selects a Supplemental/Reserve Roster Player, they must offer them a Senior Roster spot. So for LAFC to pick a reserve player, they must have to really like that player.
Clubs have some restrictions on protecting international players. They may make available up to the number of international players on their roster minus three. So, if a club has 6 internationals (such as the Rapids), they have to protect at least 3 of those.
Retired players will not take part in the Expansion Draft, but should they chose to play again, their former club will lose their first refusal rights to that player. Kevin Doyle isn’t pulling a Landon Donovan, so no worries there. That’s it as far as rules that affect the Rapids.
A list of assumptions:
MLS isn’t the most transparent leagues in World Football. It’s also one of the more complex when it comes to roster rules and regulations. So, in trying to predict the Rapids protected list, there will be some guess work. Here’s a list of assumptions I’m working under:
1. DPs: Let’s be conservative and assume Shkelzen Gashi and Tim Howard have no-trade clauses and thus must be protected.
2. Homegrowns: The Rapids have three players listed as Homegrowns: Kortne Ford, Ricardo Perez, and Dillon Serna. The first two were rookies last year. Let’s assume they’re automatically protected. Serna’s been in the league since 2013 and make around $85,000 last year. Some of that money could be coming through HG subsidiaries. He might no longer be a Reserve/Supplemental Roster player. Let’s make things interesting and say Serna is NOT automatically protected.
3. Generation Adidas: Marlon Hairston was originally a member of the GA program, but does not have the designation now. He’s graduated so he isn’t automatically protected.
So who should the Rapids protect?
From the above assumptions, Gashi and Howard take up 2 of 11 spots. Ford and Perez are automatically protected and don’t count against the 11 spots. That leaves 14 players for 9 spots.
Let’s start with some obvious players to protect: Stefan Aigner and Dominique Badji are going to be a huge part of the Rapids attack in 2018. They’re safe. The club wouldn’t have signed Johan Blomberg and then let him go to another club. He’s safe. Nana Boateng needs to be an engine in the midfield, so he’s safe. Axel Sjoberg and Marlon Hairston should both be starters on the back line next year. New Head Coach Anthony Hudson said he likes Hairston as a wing back option as well. They’re safe.
That leaves Sporting Director and Interim GM Padraig Smith with 3 spots left. All 6 international players are protected, so that requirement is fulfilled. Here’s who’s left: MacMath, Da Fonte, Miller, Watts, Azira, Serna, Hamilton, and Calvert. Of that list, MacMath made the most in 2017 at $150,000. Other than Azira, no one else was in six figures. So money shouldn’t really be a variable.
I personally would protect Miller, Watts, and Azira. Hamilton is a rookie and wasn’t on the Senior roster. LAFC isn’t going to spent a Senior roster spot on him. Calvert is a backup, so they probably won’t want him either. Da Fonte struggled in his MLS rookie year. If Head Coach Bob Bradley wants him, he can have him. They could take a flyer on Serna, but I doubt it given the year he had. That leaves just MacMath.
As I wrote about previously, MLS has a slew of staring caliber goalkeepers who could be available to move this off-season. Several playoff teams had goalkeeper switches down the stretch. David Ousted will not be returning to Vancouver Whitecaps FC. Early season starters like Jake Gleeson, David Bingham, and Clint Irwin could all be on the move as well.
LAFC will be a kid in the candy store when it comes to hand selecting a goalkeeper in Expansion Draft or Free Agency. Most of those guys are better than MacMath. An expansion team isn’t going to waste $150,000 on a backup goalkeeper if they’re going to get a proven starter who can play in 30+ games. The Rapids value MacMath because Howard is often busy with international duty. LAFC won’t have that complexity, so they shouldn’t be planning to spent a lot on a backup.
They’d also be foolish to select two keepers in the Expansion Draft. Miller, Watts, and Azira on the other hand are for sure contributors and in the 18 for a brand new club. I wouldn’t protect MacMath because the market for this year’s draft is saturated with goalkeepers.
So who could the Rapids lose?
The above leaves MacMath, Serna (assuming he’s not already protected as a HG), Da Fonte, Hamilton, and Calvert. As I’ve argued, I don’t think they’ll be at risk of losing MacMath. LAFC could take a look at Serna, but I just think they’ll be so much other talent available elsewhere around the league. Bradley is going to want 5 surefire contributors out of the draft. They’ll have plenty of options outside of the Colorado Rapids.
