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Brock Lesnar's 2022 Rumble win was a mistake
January 29, 2026 By  Raw, SmackDown, WWE Universe

How Likely is Brock Lesnar to Win The WWE Royal Rumble?

Brock Lesnar revealed he will enter the men’s WWE Royal Rumble during a video call on the Pat McAfee show. It was the kind of surprise that could have been saved for Saturday. But Lesnar and WWE – perhaps fuelled by recent controversy – decided it was best everyone knew in advance.

So Lesnar joins Bron Breakker, Roman Reigns, Cody Rhodes, Logan Paul and many more in the over-the-top-rope battle for a title shot at WrestleMania 42. The WWE Royal Rumble takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday January 31, 2026. 

If Lesnar wins, he will equal “Stone Cold” Steve Austin’s record of three Royal Rumble victories. So just how likely is Brock Lesnar to win the men’s WWE Royal Rumble match?

Well, thanks to a betting market that is growing in popularity, we can say for certain. Those who are anti-Lesnar will rejoice in the news that there’s more chance of Austin throwing a beer can at a Sheikh during the WWE Royal Rumble than “The Beast Incarnate” winning the match. 

A week ago, Lesnar was a long shot at 50/1 to win the Men’s WWE Royal Rumble match. Since his announcement, Lesnar’s odds shortened to 33/1, following the news of his entrance into the match. This meant Lesnar only had an implied win percentage of 3%.

Over the past 12 hours, 8% of all UK bets have been for Lesnar to win the WWE Royal Rumble, according to Oddschecker. This led to Lesnar’s odds falling to 14/1. We can expect his odds to drop as hype builds towards in entry into the Royal Rumble. 

Who Could Be Wrestling Steve Austin at WrestleMania 41? [Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons]
Steve Austin is 9/1 to throw a can at someone important during the WWE Royal Rumble

Current Favourite & Other Betting Markets

Bron Breakker has overtaken Roman Reigns to become the favourite to win the men’s WWE Royal Rumble. “The Vision” man is now evens to win.

Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “Bron Breakker (1/1) has crept ahead in the betting ahead of the strongly fancied Roman Reigns at 11/8. Bettors continue to rally behind Reigns with 69% of bets placed in the last hour backing the six-time world champion. LA Knight’s odds have been slashed from 20/1 to 5/1; the 43-year-old was the second most backed wrestler with 13% of the betting.”  

Another betting market analyst, Duel Bits, currently rates the chance of Steve Austin throwing a can to a Sheikh or member of the Saudi Royal Family at just 9/1. Logan Paul is fancied at just 3/1 to hand over a bottle of Prime.

Meanwhile, The Miz is the current favourite (4/1) to have the shortest stay in the men’s WWE Royal Rumble, according to Oddschecker. Santino Marella currently holds the record for the shortest ever stay in a WWE Royal Rumble of one second.

A shock favourite emerged in the women’s WWE Royal Rumble match last week based off Oddschecker’s analysis of the betting market.

Oddschecker provides the most up-to-date betting odds from over 25 of the UK’s most popular bookmakers. 

Follow live odds updates for the WWE Royal Rumble – Winner betting market at Oddschecker. 

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About Laurence Gibbons

My personality is 20% the contents of Raven's shopping trolly, 10% Shayna Baszler's card tricks, and 70% Kane's hair after he's been in a Royal Rumble match for an hour. I preview WWE Raw for LWOS as well as contributing articles on news, analysis and wrestling history.