There are many intriguing picks for the Draft Kings’ Super Bowl LIV Showdown this week. However, none have been as consistent as Damien Williams in the second half of the 2019 season. See why he is the best choice for the captain spot on DK and who else fits the build. Oh, and find out why I’m fading Patrick Mahomes in this GPP lineup.
Draft Kings Super Bowl LIV Showdown– Put Damien Williams in the Captain Spot
Captain 1.5x– Damien Williams $14,700
In his last four games, Williams is averaging 12 carries, 70 rushing yards, 1.25 rushing touchdowns, 3.5 receptions, 30.5 receiving yards, and .5 receiving touchdowns. That’s good enough for an average of 24.8 Draft Kings points per game. That’s the same DK points average as Mahomes, over the same period of time.
Of all the skill-players in the big game, Williams has been the most dependable of late. His role as the Kansas City Chiefs bell-cow provides a safe floor and a high ceiling for DFS. Williams’ skills as a pass-catcher ensure he will remain relevant whether the Chiefs are playing with a lead or playing from behind.
Finally, when it comes to ownership projections for the slate, Damien Williams is coming in between fourth and seventh overall, depending on which site you look at. Unsurprisingly, Mahomes is projected at or near the top just about everywhere. Take the ownership discount and roster the most reliable player on the slate.
Here's a stat for your Wednesday afternoon as we get ready for Super Bowl LIV.
Only six players in NFL history have scored 4+ TDs in consecutive postseasons, and Damien Williams is one of them. His eight playoff TDs in that span are the 3rd-most by a RB since 2000. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/fED2ItDBhf
— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) January 29, 2020
Flex Options
Travis Kelce $9,600
Both defenses in the big game tend to funnel offense into the middle of the field. This is where we want to attack. Luckily, that is where Travis Kelce operates. While the San Francisco 49ers defense ranks seventh in DK points allowed to tight ends this season, they have allowed the 14th most receptions and ninth most touchdowns to the position. Kelce is an elite talent who should find some success against the Niners defense on Super Bowl Sunday.
Furthermore, by playing both Kelce and Williams, you give yourself some insurance in case Mahomes goes off. Fading Mahomes and Tyreek Hill feel a bit dangerous. However, the strength of the 49ers secondary and high expected ownership on both players makes it feel like the sharp move.
Raheem Mostert $9,400
The 49ers have one of the best run games in the league, and Raheem Mostert is their starting running back. There’s no reason to think that the 49ers will suddenly abandon the offensive philosophy that got them this far. Instead, they will likely double-down on the run game in an attempt to keep Mahomes on the sideline. The Chiefs defense ranks 23rd in DK points allowed to running backs this season.
Tevin Coleman (shoulder) has been limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday but is expected to play per NFL Network’s Ian Rappoport. However, after Mostert’s recent performance in the NFC Championship, when he ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns, he should get the first crack at meaningful touches out of the 49ers backfield this week. Mostert’s home run-hitting ability and the likelihood he will get the lion’s share of the 49ers running back snaps make him an excellent choice for Super Bowl DFS.
George Kittle $8,400
The Chiefs defense is strong out on the periphery. However, they are beatable over the middle. George Kittle is an elite tight end with the ability to burn the best of defenses. The Chiefs defense, however, ranks 28th in DK points allowed to tight ends. So Kittle is in a great spot this Sunday. Outside of the 49ers running backs, Kittle, who is the team’s de facto number one receiver, is the best bet on the team to see meaningful touches conducive to scoring fantasy points.
Robbie Gould $4,000
Both kickers in the game are trending towards high ownership on this slate. On some sites, they are actually projected to be the two highest owned players. While that may be unlikely, avoiding lineups with both kickers in GPPs, might be a sharp move.
I lean towards Robbie Gould here, but with this build, you have the option to roster either. Gould has scored nine or more DK points in six straight games. He converted two or more field goals in all six of those games. With the 49ers expected to lean on their run game and strong defense, Gould should get his opportunities to convert on a few kicks again this week.
Kendrick Bourne $3,400
Kendrick Bourne fits the build and has some upside. He has been hit or miss this season, but so has most of the San Francisco passing game. Bourne’s odds of scoring a touchdown (+300)- according to Draft Kings Sportsbook, aren’t far off Emmanuel Sanders’ odds of scoring (+240). However, Bourne comes in at $1,800 less on Draft Kings and much lower expected ownership.
Total $49,500
Last Word on Super Bowl DFS
If you don’t have the nerve to fade Mahomes or you play multiple lineups and want to hedge the above lineup, you can switch out Mostert for Coleman and Kittle for Mahomes. You will also need to pivot off Bourne, down to Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson. I prefer Hardman because he has been the Chiefs kick returner throughout the playoffs, which gives him extra potential scoring opportunities.
If Mostert somehow falters, Coleman will be there to pick up the slack (if he is active for the game). His ownership projection is coming in low across the board. So playing Coleman will help differentiate your lineup from the field. We further differentiate the lineup by playing one of the two low-dollar and lower owned Chiefs wide receivers. It’s not an ideal cash lineup, but these lineups have the kind of built-in edge needed to take down a GPP tourney.
[Player pricing and data via Draft Kings]
