14 weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 15 odds, spreads and over/unders. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 15 Odds, Spreads, Over/Under, Game Picks
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-15)
Thursday Night Football is going to be a slaughter as one of the best teams in the league take on one of the worst. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens continue to establish themselves as an elite Super Bowl contender, while the Jets barely squeezed out a win against the lowly Miami Dolphins. This one is going to be over quick, but it’s hard to take the points with a spread this large. Chances are, the Jets are going to keep this within two scores through some garbage time scoring.
Pick: Ravens win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 44.5 [Pick: Under]
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5)
Mitchell Trubisky is starting to regress back to average, but can he keep it up against the Green Bay Packers? Head coach Matt Nagy has started to harness into Trubisky’s mobility and started spreading the ball around more to guys like Anthony Miller. Green Bay’s defense isn’t anything special, so the Bears should be able to move the ball with relative ease against the unit. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, should also be able to move the ball against a Chicago Bears defense which isn’t nearly as good as 2019’s form.
Pick: Packers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 41 [Pick: Over]
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-12)
Drew Lock looked like the real deal in Week 14, but now he has to travel to Arrowhead to take on a red-hot Kansas City Chiefs squad. Patrick Mahomes and company just took down the New England Patriots on the road, so they should be capable of taking care of the Broncos. However, a 12-point spread seems high. The Chiefs offense hasn’t been quite as good as 2018, and Lock should be able to move the ball against Kansas City’s defense. Lock probably isn’t ready to go blow for blow with Mahomes, but he should be able to keep it interesting.
Pick: Chiefs win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Over]
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
The Houston Texans got hit hard by the “We beat the Patriots” Super Bowl hangover in Week 14, but they should recover in time to face the Tennessee Titans. Ryan Tannehill is playing like a man possessed and should be able to do damage against Houston’s lackluster pass defense. Deshaun Watson has the ability to match anyone in a shootout, but right now it doesn’t feel like anyone can stop Tannehill through the air or Derrick Henry on the ground.
Pick: Titans win, cover spread
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Under]
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5)
As of this posting, Eli Manning has yet to make his return to the field. The two-time Super Bowl champion was one of the better quarterbacks in the league in his prime, but that was a long time ago. Manning has been a below-average quarterback for most of the past three seasons and New York has one of the least talented rosters in football. The Miami Dolphins may not have the most talent, but head coach Brian Flores has done an astounding job at getting the most out of what he has. Pat Shurmer has yet to demonstrate that ability.
Pick: Dolphins win
Over/Under: 47.5 [Pick: Under]
New England Patriots (-9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
After two straight losses, the New England Patriots are once again on to Cincinnati. The 2019 iteration of the New England Patriots feature a weaker offense than usual, but it doesn’t take a high-powered machine to take down the Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots need a “get right” game in the worst way, and history tells us that these guys are going to figure it out before the postseason begins. The defense, meanwhile, remains the best in the league and could easily hold the Bengals to a single-digit point total.
Pick: Patriots win, cover spread
Over/Under: 40.5 [Pick: Under]
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Washington Redskins
Dwayne Haskins is bad. Washington’s defense has actually played at a solid level in recent weeks, but this offense just cannot hold up their end of the bargain. Between Haskins’ inability to push the ball downfield and Bill Callahan’s run-heavy style of play, it’s hard to imagine a world where the Redskins come out on top in this one. The Eagles desperately need a win to stay in playoff contention, and they should get one.
Pick: Eagles win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47.5 [Pick: Under]
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
It truly is amazing how bad the Seattle Seahawks look when Russell Wilson doesn’t play at a divine level. Nobody does more with less than Wilson, but he won’t need to be Superman for Seattle to take down the Carolina Panthers. Kyle Allen has been figured out and Seattle’s defense should be able to get a few turnovers while Carolina’s terrible run defense means Chris Carson should bulldoze his way to well over 100 yards.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover spread
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Under]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Detroit Lions
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might not have a good defense, but it’s hard to figure out why this spread is so close. David Blough came back to Earth against the Minnesota Vikings and probably won’t find too much success through the air. Bo Scarbrough isn’t capable of carrying an offense and the defense won’t have an answer for Chris Godwin and Tampa’s aerial attack. Jameis Winston is going to turn the ball over once or twice, but Tampa should come away with a comfortable victory.
Pick: Buccaneers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47.5 [Pick: Over]
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a rough stretch while the Cleveland Browns battle to stay at the .500 mark. Cleveland came away with a victory in Week 14, but they looked bad throughout the contest. The Cardinals, meanwhile, barely lost to a solid Pittsburgh Steelers team and should bounce back against an underwhelming Browns unit.
Pick: Cardinals win
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Under]
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5)
This one is going to be tough to watch. The Jacksonville Jaguars look directionless with both Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew while the Oakland Raiders are not nearly as good as their record indicates. When the Raiders lose, they lose by a lot. When they win, it’s typically by one score or less. The Raiders are the better team and should come away with a victory, but it won’t be by much.
Pick: Raiders win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Under]
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers played their best football in quite some time against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Philip Rivers isn’t quite dead yet and he should be able to put up some offense against the Minnesota Vikings. However, it won’t be enough to take down the Minnesota Vikings. Kirk Cousins is playing like a man possessed and has miraculously maintained this level of play throughout the vast majority of the season. While he could regress to his career norm, there is no reason to expect he’ll do it this week.
Pick: Vikings win, cover spread
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Over]
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11)
Jimmy Garoppolo sure proved me wrong last week. The former second-round pick had the game of his life, going on the road and taking down Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. He faces a considerably easier task this week against the Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan is in the midst of a down year, and San Francisco’s elite defense should be able to contain Atlanta’s offense. Garoppolo, meanwhile, should have no trouble dissecting Atlanta’s subpar defense. 11 points is a lot to be on, but the 49ers are clearly the superior unit.
Pick: 49ers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 46.5 [Pick: Under]
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Jared Goff actually looked like a real NFL quarterback against Seattle’s subpar defense, and that trend should continue against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas hasn’t been able to stop anyone through the air, and Dak Prescott has come back to earth after an impressive start to the season. Prescott is still playing fine and this one should go down to the wire. This could go either way, so let’s give the home team the advantage here.
Pick: Cowboys win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Over]
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Why are the Steelers the favorite here? Devlin Hodges has played well since taking over for Mason Rudolph, but the Bills deserve some respect here. Buffalo has an elite defense paired with a solid offense and should be able to go on the road and take down the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pick: Bills win
Over/Under: 37 [Pick: Over]
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8)
Drew Brees had one of the best losing performances by a quarterback in recent memory last week. Even though the defense imploded, nobody should doubt New Orleans’ ability to move the ball up and down the field at will. Brees spread the ball around, and the Indianapolis Colts defense doesn’t stand much of a chance against this unit. Jimmy Gaoppolo managed to go blow for blow with Brees, but it’s hard to imagine Jacoby Brissett doing the same thing, especially without T.Y. Hilton. This should be a fairly uncompetitive blowout.
Pick: Saints win, cover spread
Over/Under: 45 [Pick: Over]
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