Sterling Shepard appears ready to make his return to the field just in time for the fantasy football stretch run. The former second-round pick missed the majority of the season with a concussion but was actually a reliable fantasy weapon when on the field. Can Shepard once again be a trusty flex play, or are you better off waiting to insert him into your lineup?
Fantasy Football: Sterling Shepard Outlook in Concussion Return
Sterling Shepard in 2019
Sterling Shepard doesn’t have the reputation as a target hog, but he actually had his fair share of opportunities when on the field. Shepard averaged 8.5 targets per game and turned those opportunities into 25 receptions for 267 yards and one touchdown. Had he kept this pace up over a full season, he’d currently be the WR21 in half-point scoring formats.
The craziest thing about Shepard’s early-season performance is that he was underperforming. Based on target share, air yards, and overall usage, Shepard should have recorded an extra 1.2 fantasy points per game. Assuming the usage stays consistent, he should easily have the workload to be a WR2.
This, of course, leads to the question about the usage. Shepard started the year as the unquestioned top receiver catching passes from Eli Manning. Since then, Daniel Jones took over the starting job, Golden Tate returned from his suspension, and Darius Slayton came out of nowhere to be a fifth-round steal. Slayton’s emergence is a wild card, but Shepard can still receive a reliable target share with Tate and Jones. Sterling Shepard received a combined 27 targets in his three games with Jones under center and played in 82% of snaps once Tate returned to the field. He should see similar usage if he can stay healthy, although Slayton will demand a larger slice of the pie.
Concussion Issues
Concussions are no joke, and Shepard is coming back from his second concussion of the season. The newly-extended receiver missed Week 2 with a concussion, came back, and then suffered another head injury after Week 5. Speaking from a purely fantasy angle, it’s hard to trust a player coming back from their second concussion in the same season. Head injuries are no joke, and it’s no secret that the odds of concussion increase after getting another one.
Unfortunately, there is a very real chance that Shepard either gets slowly worked back into the rotation or re-aggravates his injury. He’s definitely worth rostering, but you shouldn’t start him unless you’re projected to lose by a sizable margin and need a high-upside dart throw. Even then, you can probably find a better pickup on the open market.
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