It sure looks like Melvin Gordon won’t be around for the start of the 2019 NFL season. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Gordon’s contract holdout is “expected to continue into the season”, which is bad news for fantasy football. With Gordon out of the picture, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson will lead the Los Angeles Chargers’ backfield. Let’s take a look at how these two will perform without Gordon, and where you should take them in your fantasy football drafts.
At this point, #Chargers RB Melvin Gordon’s holdout is expected to continue into the season, sources say. Contract talks have not progressed as he hoped, and he’ll continue to train in Florida for the foreseeable future.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 21, 2019
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Fantasy Football: Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson Without Melvin Gordon
Last year, Gordon was one of the true workhorse backs in the NFL. Appearing in 12 games, Gordon recorded 175 carries for 885 yards and 10 touchdowns to go along with 50 receptions for 490 yards and four touchdowns. Gordon finished the year as the RB7 in half-point scoring formats but his 20.9 fantasy points-per-game were tied with Alvin Kamara for third-best in the league.
Gordon’s touches are completely up for grabs, and Ekeler and Jackson should be the primary beneficiaries. This will boost both of their stocks, but it’s worth noting that they can’t carry you throughout the entire season. If Gordon wants to hit free agency, he’ll need to come back for the final five games of the season. Once he’s back, Gordon should regain his old workload. Ekeler and/or Jackson can help carry you to the fantasy football playoffs, but they probably won’t be much help in winning a championship.
Now that we’ve got that disclaimer out of the way, let’s break down exactly what to expect from both Ekeler and Jackson in Melvin Gordon’s absence.
Austin Ekeler
Ekeler is going to see the majority of the work with Gordon out of the way. Last year, Ekeler started three of the four games in which Gordon didn’t play. During those games, Ekeler recorded a combined 40 rushing attempts for 129 yards and one touchdown. Additionally, Ekeler added another 12 receptions for 76 yards through the air. Ekeler likely would have earned the fourth start, but he missed that game with an injury of his own.
These numbers, while not extraordinary, should make him the primary starter moving forward. Ekeler is no Alvin Kamara, but he has the ability to make plays out of the backfield. With Gordon sidelined, Ekeler should see an uptick in targets in the passing game, which obviously boosts his fantasy value.
Unfortunately, Ekeler won’t bring Gordon’s rushing value. The Chargers’ offensive line is a hot mess, and Ekeler isn’t the most natural between-the-tackles runner. According to Sharp Football Stats, Ekeler had a 50.4% success rate on carries, which was 2.9% above the league average. However, this success was due to his perimeter speed and off-tackle runs. Ekeler recorded a 41% success rate on runs behind the left guard and a 45% success rate on runs behind the right guard, both well below league average.
Ekeler isn’t capable of being utilized in the same way Gordon was. He’ll be the primary guy, but he has a few clear weaknesses keeping him being a true every-down player. Fortunately for the Chargers, Justin Jackson’s strengths perfectly cover Austin Ekeler’s weaknesses.
Justin Jackson
Whether fantasy owners like it or not, Justin Jackson is going to play a role in the Chargers’ backfield. While he’s the clear second-fiddle, he’s going to see the ball in short-yardage and clear running situations.
Overall, Jackson had a 52.8% success rate on carries, 5.3% better than the league average. Jackson excelled where Ekeler faltered, as his 59% success rate on runs behind center and 67% success rate on runs behind right guard was well above the league average.
As far as short-yardage rushing goes, Jackson had ten carries last year with fewer than three yards to go for a first down. He converted nine of those opportunities into first downs and went 6/6 on 3rd/4th and short opportunities. Ekeler, meanwhile, converted six of 15 short-yardage opportunities, including three of eight on 3rd/4th and short. Jackson’s going to be the guy in short-yardage situations, and that could translate to a high red zone workload.
Additionally, Jackson has the ability to make some plays in the passing game. While he’s not the receiving threat that Ekeler is, but he can still do damage in the passing game. Last year, Jackson caught 15 of his 19 targets for 135 yards to go along with 50 carries for 206 yards and two touchdowns. He made the most of his touches and proved to be a valuable, NFL-caliber running back.
Average Draft Position
All signs point toward Ekeler being the primary starter, and with good reason. The Western State product is the more talented pass-catcher and is capable of moving the ball on outside runs. He’s going to see a decent portion of the work, but he’s won’t put up Melvin Gordon numbers. Justin Jackson is a decent receiving threat in his own right and is significantly better in short-yardage situations.
If you’re looking for total projection, Austin Ekeler is going to be an RB2 while Jackson will be an RB3 with touchdown upside. However, Jackson will probably give you a better value relative to ADP. Fantasy Football Calculator hasn’t had time to adequately update ADP following Rapoport’s report, so there is a little bit of guesswork in the following paragraph.
I believe that Ekeler will start climbing draft boards at an alarming rate and possibly go as early as the third. That’s simply too early for a player who isn’t a special talent and is going to be part of a committee, especially when considering Gordon will return at some point in the year. Jackson’s ADP will go up, but not at the same rate.
If this happens, you’d be better off grabbing a guy like Devonta Freeman in the third and grabbing Jackson in the eighth or ninth round. That said, I could be wrong about Ekeler’s ADP rise. If he’s there in the fifth or sixth round, take a shot on him.
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