The Jacksonville Jaguars made a big trade on Friday, acquiring running back Carlos Hyde from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a fifth-round pick. However, this trade doesn’t necessarily Hyde will be the Jaguars lead back moving forward. The move has drastic fantasy impacts, not only on Hyde but also on fellow running backs T.J. Yeldon and Leonard Fournette.
Fantasy Football: How the Carlos Hyde Trade Affect the Jacksonville Jaguars Backfield
Leonard Fournette has been sidelined for the vast majority of the season with a lingering hamstring injury. In his absence, former second-round pick T.J. Yeldon has served as the unquestioned lead back. While Hyde will obviously eat into Yeldon’s snap count, it’s premature to assume Hyde will take over as the top running back.
For one, Yeldon has been the better player thus far in 2018. On the season, Yeldon has recorded 299 yards and one touchdown on 67 rushing attempts. Additionally, he’s added 25 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. Hyde, meanwhile, has recorded 382 yards and five touchdowns on 114 carries to go along with just six receptions for 29 yards. Hyde has more rushing touchdowns, but Yeldon holds the lead in every other significant category.
The advanced analytics back up the standard stats. Hyde has a 37.7% success rate on rushing plays, which is 8.2 percentage points below the league-average success rate of 45.9%. Hyde has been below-average on all runs between the tackles, with his only above-average success coming on runs off right tackle. However, Hyde has only recorded two runs off right tackle all season, so you can’t really extrapolate any data off a sample so small.
Yeldon, meanwhile, has a 50.7% success rate on the season. While this is only slightly above league average, it’s still a clear upgrade on what Hyde’s been able to do. Yeldon is at or above the league-average success rate on all runs, except for behind left guard. Basically, he can do everything well, but nothing extraordinary.
While it looks like Yeldon is the better overall back, he’s also been running behind a vastly superior offensive line. Per Football Outsiders, Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks third in stuff percentage, meaning that Jaguars running backs rarely get hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Browns offensive line, meanwhile, ranks 28th with a 23% stuffed percentage.
Obviously, it’s harder to pick up yardage when you’re getting hit in the backfield. Chances are Hyde’s production will increase now that he’s running behind an improved offensive line. That said, Yeldon has earned the right to, at the very least, split snaps 50/50 with Hyde.
What to Expect From Yeldon and Hyde’s Usage
Now that we’ve established one running back is not clearly superior to the others, how will Jacksonville use their running backs from here on out? Yeldon’s been too good to completely leave off the field, and you don’t give up a draft pick for a player if you’re not going to use him.
Based on his time in Cleveland, Carlos Hyde will be the guy taking the majority of the red zone carries. As a member of the Browns, Hyde saw 17 carries in the red zone, converting them into 33 yards and five touchdowns. Yeldon, meanwhile, has seen just nine red zone carries on the year, with only four coming from within the 10-yard line. Yeldon’s converted his nine carries into 33 yards and just one touchdown.
Additionally, Hyde has a better success rate on goal-line carries. Per SharpFootballStats.com, Hyde is successful on 58.8% of his red zone carries, which is 10.9% better than the 47.9% league average. Yeldon, meanwhile, has been successful on just 50% of his red zone rushing attempts.
Based on the data available to us, Hyde is Jacksonville’s best option for goal-line duties. More than likely, Jacksonville traded for Hyde with this exact role in mind. Yeldon has been great outside the red zone, but he’s only been average in the red zone. Hyde, meanwhile, has been at his best inside the red zone.
Yeldon should continue to see a good amount of work outside of the red zone, while Hyde should take over goal line duties. Obviously, this makes Hyde more valuable in fantasy, but it’s not like Yeldon’s a lost cause. As it is, Yeldon only has one rushing touchdown on the season, so it’s not like he was putting up much production when he had the red zone job. Hyde will eat into his snaps on the open field a bit, but overall you should expect similar production to what he’s given all season.
What Do Leonard Fournette Owners Do?
The Carlos Hyde trade is clear evidence that the Jaguars do not trust Leonard Fournette’s ability to come back and be effective this season. What you do with him depends on what type of league you’re playing in.
If you’re in a standard one-season league, it’s probably best to shop him around. If the Jaguars don’t trust his hamstring to improve, then you shouldn’t either. Even if he does come back, Jacksonville will likely try to minimize his workload. Hyde and Yeldon are both capable starters and they won’t just get pushed to the side. At best, Leonard Fournette will be a part of the dreaded running back by committee. Try to trade him, hoping that name recognition can net you a decent player.
However, if you’re in a dynasty league, hold on to Fournette. While he probably won’t produce for you in 2018, Fournette is still a valuable fantasy commodity in 2019 and beyond. The Jaguars liked Fournette enough to take him with the fourth overall pick just one year ago, and one hamstring injury isn’t going to change that love.
Additionally, he was one of the better running backs in the league as recently as 2017. While there may be a lot of mouths to feed on the 2018 Jaguars, this problem will likely go away after this year. Yeldon’s in the last year of his contract, and it’s hard to see Jacksonville re-signing him. Yeldon’s having the best season of his career and likely played out way out of Jacksonville’s price range.
While Hyde is under contract for 2019, he probably won’t be a member of the Jaguars. Hyde has a one-year opt-out in his contract, allowing the Jaguars to cut bait after 2018 without any dead money on their cap. The Jaguars will almost certainly use the opt-out, as Hyde carries a 4.75 million cap hit in 2019. That’s a lot of money to invest in a running back, especially when Fournette already takes up 7.4 million in cap space.
Last Word on the Carlos Hyde Trade
Carlos Hyde has officially joined the Jaguars backfield, but this move isn’t a kiss of death for T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon has been the better and more successful runner all season long. While Hyde was playing behind a worse offensive line in Cleveland, Yeldon should continue to see a solid share of the snaps.
However, Hyde should take over as the red zone back. Yeldon hasn’t performed that well in the opponents 20, whereas that has been the strongest part of Hyde’s game. Hyde will naturally take some carries before the red zone, but his primary role will be inside the opponents 20.
While this move effectively signals the end of Leonard Fournette in 2018, dynasty owners shouldn’t worry about his long-term effectiveness. Fournette will still be “the guy” in 2019 and he probably won’t have to compete with both Yeldon and Hyde for snaps.
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