Thursday Night Football is here, as the white-hot Buffalo Bills take on the struggling Miami Dolphins in front of a national audience. Buffalo has dominated this rivalry in recent years, but can Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins turn it around and pull off the upset?
Thursday Night Football: Bills-Dolphins Predictions, Spreads Prop Bets
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
Over/Under: 50.5
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are heading in two completely different directions. Reigning MVP Josh Allen looks as dominant as ever, as this team is averaging an absurd 30.5 points per game. Keon Coleman is taking the Year 2 leap, James Cook is justifying his contract, and the defense shut down the New York Jets one week after the Pittsburgh Steelers couldn’t stop them.
Miami, however, is already looking on to 2026. The defense is perhaps the worst in the league, Mike McDaniels’ scheme is getting old, and Tua Tagovailoa’s physical shortcomings are more and more evident with every passing week. While the offense found some life against the New England Patriots last week, it won’t be enough to keep up with Buffalo’s high-octane offense.
The Bills will win this one, but an 11.5 spread is too large to feel comfortable about. Will Matt Milano and Ed Oliver out, the Miami Dolphins can keep this relatively close, although Buffalo probably won’t be in any real danger of losing the game.
Prediction: Bills win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: Under
Best Prop Bets
Tua Tagovailoa: OVER 231.5 Passing Yards
The Buffalo Bills have arguably the NFL’s best offense, and the Miami Dolphins have the league’s worst defense. This is the recipe for a shootout, which means Tua Tagovailoa will throw the ball early and often throughout this contest. With Milano and Oliver sidelined, Tagovailoa should have enough time to survey the field and connect with his speedy wide receivers or running back DeVon Achane. Garbage time yards count the same as the others, so look for Tagovailoa to comfortably reach this mark.
James Cook: OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards
Thanks to Week 2, we know that the Buffalo Bills feed James Cooks in blowouts, and the Thursday Night Football matchup against the Miami Dolphins should be pretty one-sided. Cook will receive more than his fair share of carries, and the big-money back should have no issue moving the ball against Miami’s subpar defensive line. He should easily eclipse the 65-yard threshold and could easily finish the night with over 100 rushing yards.
Keon Coleman: OVER 2.5 Receptions
A third straight ‘over’ bet is uncommon, but the value is just too good here. Through two games, Keon Coleman has recorded 11 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets, and now he gets to face a terrible defense. This prop bet could pay off by the first quarter.
Main Photo: Jamie Germano – Imagn Images
