New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury in Week 15, potentially opening the door for 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller to be a fantasy football league-winner. As of this posting, we do not know if Kamara will suit up in Week 16’s matchup against the Green Bay Packers, but if he can’t play, Miller will see a sizable workload. Can the running back make the most of this opportunity, or are you better off avoiding him in must-win playoff matchups?
Update (12/19/24): Alvin Kamara is considered unlikely to play in Week 16, per ESPN’s Katherine Terrell
Fantasy Football: Kendre Miller Outlook If Alvin Kamara Doesn’t Play
Some fantasy football owners may be unwilling to trust Kendre Miller thanks to the Dennis Allen Era. Despite selecting him in the third round, the Saints former head coach had an open disdain for the running back. He went out of his way to criticize the TCU product in the preseason and surprised everyone on the coaching staff by placing him on the injured reserve despite a minor injury. Fortunately, interim head coach Darren Rizzi does not share Allen’s view of the running back, as Miller is the primary backup to Alvin Kamara.
Based on Week 15’s action, we can safely assume Miller will be the primary starter if Kamara misses time. According to Pro Football Focus, Miller out-snapped veteran Jamaal Williams 26 to 6 after Kamara’s injury and ran 11 more routes. Perhaps this workload evens out now that Rizzi has a full week to incorporate Miller and Williams into the gameplan, but the present coaching staff trusts Miller.
Frankly, this trust is justified. While he only has an admittedly small body of work in 2024, the running back has made the most of his limited opportunities, ranking highly in PFF rushing grade, YAC/attempt, and elusiveness rating. Only time will tell if he can maintain this efficiency over an extended sample, but he’s rewarded the coaching staff’s trust thus far. Fantasy football managers should not worry about Kendre Miller’s workload, but his matchup could be worrisome.
Kendre Miller ranks Top-10 in PFF Rushing Grade (86.4), YAC/attempt (3.71), & Top-5 in Elusiveness Rating (136.2) this season.
He has 11 broken tackles on just 28 rushing attempts.
104 of his 130 rushing yards have come AFTER-contact. pic.twitter.com/SLAMzz6gwv
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) December 17, 2024
Projected Matchup
At 10-4, the Green Bay Packers are one of the league’s better teams, but they’re not unstoppable on defense. According to CBS Sports, the team currently ranks 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This mediocre ranking means that Kendre Miller won’t be an automatic must-start in fantasy football, but the right offense could exploit this matchup.
Unfortunately, the New Orleans Saints do not have a good offense. While they were an impressive team at their best, a seemingly endless string of injuries has effectively turned this offense into a M*A*S*H unit. The offensive line is one of the worst in the league, and the Spencer Rattler to Marquez Valdes-Scantling connection might be the least dangerous in football. New Orleans will struggle to sustain drives and find the endzone, which puts a clear cap on Miller’s ceiling.
Ultimately, volume is king in fantasy football, and Kendre Miller has a clear path to playing time if Alvin Kamara cannot suit up. He should see 15-20 touches, including targets, but the lack of scoring upside makes him nothing more than a mid-level RB2 for the week. While it’s not league-winning production, he won’t sink your team if you must put him in the flex spot.
Main Photo: Stephen Lew – USA Today Sports
