Ex-Bills wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis left Buffalo in the offseason. Their departures leave a 241-target void that must be filled. The result will be a breakout year for at least one Bills wide receiver. Figuring out which one will step up is the key to a massive fantasy football steal.
Khalil Shakir is the only receiver who caught a pass from quarterback Josh Allen, who returns to the revamped Bills roster in 2024. He’ll face plenty of competition for the top spot on the WR depth chart. Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman are the other marquee contenders.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, Mack Hollins, Andy Isabella, Justin Shorter, and KJ Hamler will also be in the mix for roster spots. Those who make it will be an injury or two away from fantasy relevance. So it’s a crowded situation ripe for a surprise or two.
Bills Wide Receivers 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Khalil Shakir
The best illustration of the unknowns connected to the Bills passing game comes from Yahoo Sports‘ average draft position. Here’s where the team’s top three receivers stand in ADP:
- Keon Coleman: 128.1
- Curtis Samuel: 129.8
- Khalil Shakir: 129.9
It shows the fantasy market is hedging its bets, at least for now. Things could change quickly once training camp and the preseason potentially provide some clues on a pecking order.
Shakir being third among the group (albeit by fractions) feels like a miscalculation, though. He started to build a strong connection with Allen during the latter stages of the 2023 campaign. His last three games were all impressive outings:
- Week 18: 6 catches for 105 yards
- Wild Card Round: 3 catches for 31 yards, TD
- Divisional Round: 7 catches for 44 yards, TD
His burst of success wasn’t a fluke, either. He was the only Bills receiver getting open consistently. Diggs struggled mightily during the second half of the season, which played a role in his eventual trade to the Houston Texans, and Davis never consistently created separation in Buffalo.
Along with Shakir’s preexisting connection with Allen, he also benefits from being able to play either on the perimeter or in the slot. It should help him garner the highest snap share as part of a rotation-heavy wideout group.
So, what’s the ultimate upside? Finishing inside the top 10 at the position seems unlikely—targets will be spread around too much for that—but ending up somewhere in the WR11-20 range seems realistic, and it makes him a great value selection in the 10th round of 12-team PPR leagues.
2024 Projection: 222 points (WR19)
Curtis Samuel
Samuel has never finished better than WR25 across seven NFL seasons. However, how much that lackluster production is connected to poor quarterback play is the key question.
The 27-year-old Ohio State product played his first two years with Cam Newton on the Carolina Panthers, but he was only a secondary option in the aerial attack. Since he reached his personal peak, his quarterbacks have been borderline terrible.
Now he gets a chance to catch passes from Allen. It’s rare for a player to post their best season nearly a decade into their career, but it’s possible in this case.
Samuel is coming off a year where he ranked fifth in the NFL in true catch rate and 23rd in average target separation, per Player Profiler. He finished 58th in target share and 83rd in snap share, however. Combine that with poor QB play and his numbers were underwhelming with the Washington Commanders.
His role should be more stable with the Bills. In turn, his performance should improve, even without a major bump in his target share, thanks to Allen’s presence.
2024 Projection: 188 points (WR29)
Keon Coleman
While the projections for Shakir and Samuel on the bullish side, the initial outlook for Coleman is more bearish. Comments from general manager Brandon Beane suggested the rookie out of Florida State is still facing a substantial learning curve.
“I think Keon has worked hard,” Beane told reporters in June. “Like anything, [a] college playbook versus an NFL playbook, big difference. The verbiage, where he’s lining up, the sight adjust[ments], all the variances he has to do. Even just what we ask in the run game for our guys, I don’t know specifically what he was asked there. Some schools, there’s very little, it’s just like, if it’s not a pass play, take a play off. That’s not here. He’s got to be involved in all phases of our offense.”
Davis was a high-end pass blocker at the position. It helped him retain a high snap share despite his obvious shortcomings as a receiver. The Bills are looking to replace that involvement, and it sounds like Coleman is still a work in progress in that regard.
Buffalo is also traditionally guarded in its use of rookies. Running back James Cook is the latest example of someone who didn’t break out until Year 2 with the Bills despite being selected early in the draft.
Coleman will have a role in the Bills offense—his physicality is something lacking from the team’s other options at wide receiver—but it may not be large enough to post monster fantasy numbers.
That said, there’s a disclaimer: if Coleman dominates in the preseason and leaves Buffalo no choice but to feature him in its offense, his ranking could skyrocket before Week 1. All signs point toward a more complementary role at the outset, though.
2024 Projection: 115 points (WR55)
Depth Options
Claypool holds the most potential among the sizable group competing for the Bills No. 4 receiver role. He peaked as the WR14 during his rookie campaign with the Chicago Bears. He’s never come anywhere close to matching that outcome.
The 26-year-old Canadian looked great throughout the offseason program, however, and he’s saying all the right things about trying to get his once-budding career back on track.
“I think it is tough believing the player that you are or can be and falling short of those expectations, especially over the last two years, for sure,” Claypool said in May. “It is a tough position because I know there’s times where it can be frustrating if I’m not living up to my potential. But if it’s frustrating to the outside world, it’s even more frustrating for me. I understand where I should be. And I understand that I haven’t met those expectations. And that’s why I work harder and harder and harder and harder every year so I can meet and exceed those expectations.”
Claypool has an outside chance to finish the season as a top-30 fantasy wideout. He’s worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues.
Valdes-Scantling ended up as the WR105 despite playing 16 games alongside Patrick Mahomes in the Kansas City Chiefs offense last season. His big-play ability has always create fantasy intrigue but it’s never translated to elite results. Perhaps he finds a way to crack the top 50 at receiver, but it’s a long shot.
Beyond that, it’s hard to imagine any other Bills receiver making a significant fantasy splash.
Hollins was brought in for his blocking and special-teams impacts. Shorter and Hamler can stretch the find but won’t see enough targets. Isabella could sneak into the lineup as a slot option, but the snap share won’t be high enough to generate consistent production.
Main Image: Kirby Lee – USA Today Sports
