Vegas has released their early odds for offensive rookie of the year. Fanduel has released their early odds, and there is some value to betting on guys before a clear front runner emerges. All in all, who is a safe bet, a value play and a long shot in this year’s betting odds?
Best Bets Offensive Rookie of the Year 2023
Safe Bet
In the last ten years the OROY has been a quarterback three times. It’s been a wide receiver three times. And it has been a running back four times. The positional advantage of quarterback hasn’t existed in years where more than one quarterback excels. This is important, because this year there are three or four quarterbacks that could see serious playing time. If they all neutralize each other, it’s a boring option but the favorite is one of the best rookie bets.
Fanduel lists Bijan Robinson at +300 odds. No shade at Tyler Allgeier, but if rushed for 1,000 yards last season it’s scary to think what Bijan might do. He broke PFF’s broken tackles metric, and the team can only improve from last year. If he gets the workload expected from a number eight overall pick, 2,000 yards from scrimmage isn’t out of the question. He’s the favorite for a reason.
Value Play
Record breakers win this award. Justin Herbert did it when he set the passing TD record for rookies. Ja’Marr Chase won it when he broke the rookie receiving record in the modern era. Odell Beckham Jr. won it just for coming close his season. The rookie rushing record for quarterbacks is currently at 815. While the record is held by Robert Griffin III (2012 OROY), the quarterback rushing record is at 1206 by Lamar Jackson. What if there was a quarterback in this class that could break both in year one? Maybe one that measured in as the most athletic quarterback prospect ever?
Anthony Richardson is sitting at +700 in the OROY odds. He is tied with C.J. Stroud and somehow behind Bryce Young. Richardson was first on the pre-draft quarterback rookie rankings. His measurables at the NFL combine were better than most running back prospects. Now he is paired with Shane Steichen. Steichen notably helped Jalen Hurts develop into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. All Richardson has to do is break a couple tiny records, and the award is all his.
Long Shots
There are two players with just about even odds who are great values in this year’s bets. Kendre Miller and Rashee Rice are both at +4000. Miller has a clear path to leading the New Orleans Saints backfield, and is talented enough to do some serious damage. In a weak NFC South, the Saints could find themselves in front early and often. If Miller puts together a couple of 100 yard games late in the season, this bet will feel like a slam dunk.
Rice is an easy explanation. Patrick Mahomes is certified good at football. His number one option is an aging Travis Kelce, and his best wide receiver can’t stay healthy (looking at you Toney). If Rice finds himself as the number one or even number two in the offense, the path to Garrett Wilson type numbers is an easy one.
Absolute Hail Mary
Fanduel lists Eric Gray at +10000. The New York Giants selected Gray to be Saquon’s backup. Barkley has not been the picture of perfect health so far. If he misses time, and Gray can somehow sneak into some good rushing numbers anything can happen. This would be insane, but crazier things have happened. Dak Prescott was a fourth rounder who wasn’t supposed to play when he won. As far as long shots go, Gray is one of the best bets for the offensive rookie of the year voting.
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Main Photo: Kirby Lee USA TODAY Sports
