After seven weeks of action, the Kansas City Chiefs sit in the basement of the AFC West. This team was supposed to be one of the Super Bowl frontrunners, but a series of mistakes on both sides of the ball has led to some truly underwhelming play. Patrick Mahomes and company are making costly turnovers every week, and the defense cannot stop anybody. Given their record in a competitive division, is it time for Chiefs fans to panic about the fate of the team?
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Panic Meter: Kansas City Chiefs Edition
The Offense
Let’s start by talking about the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Ever since Patrick Mahomes earned the starting job, the Chiefs have had the most dangerous aerial attack in all of football. However, the results haven’t quite been the same this year. Mahomes currently leads the league with nine interceptions, which obviously is not a good thing. Additionally, he’s currently PFF’s QB19, ranked right between Daniel Jones and Teddy Bridgewater.
Needless to say, this is not the same old Patrick Mahomes we’re used to seeing. However, the interceptions are a little overblown. Mahomes has always played a riskier style of football, and this aggressive style of play usually leads to a few extra turnovers. It didn’t last year, but that’s primarily because the quarterback led the league in dropped interceptions by a comfortable margin. The biggest reason for concern is that Mahomes is missing some of the easier passes, but he’s Patrick Mahomes. Chances are, he’ll figure it out in time.
Patrick Mahomes is going to be used as a case study in INT variance over the past couple of seasons. Absurdly 'lucky' the last couple of years. Getting very 'unlucky' this season.
Turnover-worthy play rate actually gone DOWN this year.
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) October 24, 2021
Even if this version of Patrick Mahomes remains the quarterback, the Chiefs are still in a good place. Kansas City’s scheme and offensive playmakers are second to none, and this offense can still be one of the best in football even with Mahomes playing below his usual standards. Even after Sunday’s embarrassing loss, the Chiefs are still fifth in the league in EPA/play. This team knows how to move the ball and will continue to be a top offense throughout the season.
The Defense
While the offense should be fine in time, it’s hard to see how the defense turns it around. Through the first seven weeks of the season, Kansas City’s defense is at or near the bottom of just about every meaningful stat in football. And this has nothing to do with resource allocation – general manager Brett Veach has invested more into the defensive side of the ball than just about every other team in football.
https://twitter.com/EthanCDouglas/status/1452771392009633795?s=20
Outside of a trade, it’s hard to see this unit turning it around in any serious way. The coaching staff has put the best players on the field, there just aren’t enough good players to go around. Even if the Chiefs trade for defensive help, they only have just over $2.9 million in cap space, so they can’t afford a high-level player.
The silver lining here is that defensive production is inherently volatile and not very stable over long periods of time. Put simply, it’s hard to be THIS bad for an entire 17-game season. This defense will never be good, but it probably won’t stay historically bad for the entire season. If this unit can “improve” to a bottom-10 defense, then Mahomes and the offense should be able to carry the team to a few victories.
Where Will the Chiefs Finish
At 3-4, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to have a hard time winning the division. Even if both sides of the ball get it together, the team has to get out of a huge hole. Passing the 3-4 Broncos shouldn’t be too hard of a task, but it won’t be easy to pass both the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders.
At 4-2, the Chargers already have a 1.5-game lead on the Chiefs and currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Raiders, meanwhile, have a full two-game lead over their division foes. If the Chiefs want any shot of winning the division, they can only afford to lose one or two more games for the rest of the season.
Kansas City should improve enough to make a wild card appearance, but asking for yet another division crown is asking a lot. Fortunately, a wild card birth is not a kiss of death, as the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a wild card team and ended up winning it all.
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