All good things must come to an end. Unfortunately, that’s true of winning streaks. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 13 DraftKings plays.
Week 13 DraftKings Plays
Week 12 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
https://t.co/g1C5yA4KKY— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) November 30, 2020
Looking back at Week 12, it was better again. This week 56.7 percent of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the wide receiver group led the way as the best group at a 70 percent success rate. Meanwhile, the quarterback group brought up the rear down at a 33.3 percent success rate. For me personally, I did well in GPPs but not in cash games and ultimately lost money. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the picks and get back into profit in the Week 13 DraftKings plays.
- Week 12 – $445 → $93 ($352 LOSS)
- Year Total – $4,462 → $3,366 ($1,096 LOSS)
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (LAC) – $6,900 v NE
Last week’s recommendation of Justin Herbert didn’t go as well as hoped, but he still was fine and returned value. When 20.4 points are your second-worst game of the year, that’s not too bad at all. This week he got a small price reduction which is nice to see. The matchup against the New England Patriots is much better than it sounds. This Patriots defense is not the elite defense that we’re used to seeing. They are near the bottom of the league in terms of pass defense efficiency metrics. They also allow the 11th-most points to quarterbacks so far this year. This looks like a nice bounce-back spot for Herbert to get back to throwing for multiple scores and maybe hit that 300-yard bonus.
Only 2 QBs in NFL history have thrown for 3,000 yards over their first 10 career starts:
– Patrick Mahomes
– Justin Herbert pic.twitter.com/4md8OnK6pu— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 29, 2020
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – $5,400 v DET
It may feel gross, but Mitchell Trubisky looks like a solid option this week at this price point. After starting last week in place of the injured Nick Foles, Trubisky will start again this week. Last week was a mixed bag, which is usual with Trubisky, but it ultimately turned into a solid day for fantasy purposes. He attempted 46 passes and threw three touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. In the end, he turned in 20.78 fantasy points. This week’s matchup against the Detroit Lions is a perfect landing spot. The Lions allow the seventh-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season and are a terrible defense in general. Another 20-point performance is well within reach for Trubisky this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) – $6,000 v CIN
This one is going to come down to the end of the week and whether or not Tua Tagovailoa plays. If he does, Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously not a great play. If Tagovailoa sits though, Fitzpatrick becomes a great play. Fitzpatrick stepped right in this past week and had a nice game against the New York Jets. He scored 19.3 DraftKings points and that was in a game that the Miami Dolphins had a commanding lead and took their foot off the gas. While that could end up being the case in this one against the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s likely that Fitzpatrick at least contributed to that lead. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. It seems likely that Fitzpatrick should be able to post at least 20 points should he start in this one.
Others to Consider: Aaron Rodgers (GB) – $6,800 v PHI, Derek Carr (LV) – $5,800 @ NYJ, Deshaun Watson (HOU) – $7,500 v IND
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook (MIN) – $9,500 v JAX
Sure, it didn’t go so well last week, but that shouldn’t dissuade anyone from using Dalvin Cook this week. The workload Cook gets gives him as high of a week-to-week floor as anyone in fantasy football. He also leads the NFL in both total yards and total touchdowns. Last week he posted only 11.2 DraftKings points while leaving for a brief time with an injury. Cook returned to the game and should be good to go for this game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars allow the fourth-most DraftKings points to running backs this year. The Minnesota Vikings also enter this game as big, home favorites and with the second-highest implied team total on the slate. This looks like a perfect rebound spot for Cook as long as he’s healthy and receives a full workload.
David Montgomery (CHI) – $5,500 v DET
David Montgomery is coming off the best game of his career last week against the Green Bay Packers. He ripped off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season and also chipped in five catches for 40 yards and a score through the air. Montgomery has been used as a pure bell-cow since Tarik Cohen went down earlier in the year. Since that point, he’s seen at least five targets in seven of the eight games. This week is an even sweeter outlook for Montgomery. It’s not often that the Chicago Bears are favorites but that’s what we have this week. On top of all that, the Lions have allowed the most DraftKings points to running backs this season and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in general and especially in terms of rush defense efficiency. Montgomery is an absolute lock for cash game lineups this week at this price.
Austin Ekeler (LAC) – $7,100 v NE
Austin Ekeler is back and it’s glorious. Though there were reports of easing him back in, but that was not the case last week. Ekeler played 73 percent of snaps and saw 14 carries and 16 targets. This is bell-cow territory that you can get for a good price still. Of course, the 16 targets aren’t sustainable, but he should continue to be heavily involved in the passing game. He ran 37 routes in this game and Justin Herbert has already shown an affinity to target him heavily. The matchup against the New England Patriots is nothing special but it’s nothing to be scared of either. In fact, the Patriots do struggle in terms of covering running backs in the passing game. This should bode well for Ekeler especially if they decide to put Stephon Gilmore on Mike Williams and decide to double and bracket Keenan Allen. With the combination of workload (especially in the passing game), matchup, and projected game script, Ekeler should be a great play this weekend.
Austin Ekeler is walking back to the best-case scenario version of the 2020 Chargers offense that we possibly could've imagined entering the season, and he faces less competition for touches than ever.
Top-five fantasy football, and probably real life, RB the second he's active
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 28, 2020
James Robinson (JAX) – $7,300 @ MIN
There’s nobody in the NFL with a larger touch share and snap share than James Robinson. That’s not something anyone was expecting heading into this year. He’s truly been a revelation and a waiver wire hero this season. Generally, a running back on a road team that’s a big underdog with a low implied team total is something to avoid. Robinson, however, has been doing it with this situation all season. He’s been able to overcome because of his unbelievable touch and snap share levels. Last week alone he played 97 percent of the snaps. With Chris Thompson on the injured reserve, Robinson has taken all the passing work as well. The matchup this week against the Minnesota Vikings is a solid one. They are mid-pack in terms of DraftKings points allowed to running backs. However, they allow a lot of volume on the ground. He should be in line for his usual 15+ carries and if they fall behind, he’ll continue to be involved through the air. This gives Robinson one of the highest floors among any player on the slate and makes for a nice player to plug into your cash game lineups.
Others to Consider: Derrick Henry (TEN) – $9,200 v CLE, Frank Gore (NYJ) – $4,400 v LV, Devontae Booker (LV) – $5,500 @ NYJ, Myles Gaskin (MIA) – $5,900 v CIN
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (GB) – $9,000 v PHI
Did you see what D.K. Metcalf did to this Philadelphia Eagles defense on Monday night? Yeah, Davante Adams was probably salivating while watching it. He should eat them alive this weekend. The matchup doesn’t look amazing on paper as the Eagles are mid-pack in terms of DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers this season. However, they are one of the stingiest defenses against running backs this year. This should allow Aaron Rodgers to lock on to Adams and feed him early and often. The Green Bay Packers also currently have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate. Adams is certainly pricey, but if you have the extra money, he makes for a great option to spend up on this week.
Allen Robinson (CHI) – $6,700 v DET
This looks like another case of mispricing due to prices already being out before the end of the game. Last week, Allen Robinson saw 13 targets in Mitchell Trubisky’s first game back as the starter. He came through with eight receptions for 74 yards and two scores. That was good for 27.4 DraftKings points. This week Trubisky is the starter again and there’s no reason to expect anything less than a minimum of eight targets. This matchup is also even juicier than last week’s was. The Detroit Lions are one of the worst defenses in the NFL and allow the sixth-most DraftKings points to running backs so far this season. Robinson looks like he’s one of the best values on the entire slate this week at the wide receiver position.
Allen Robinson in his last 15 games:
🔸 93 catches (4th most in NFL)
🔸 0 drops🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/iVbqNrdVdD
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 4, 2020
Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $5,600 v IND
The Houston Texans were just dealt a tough blow this week. Will Fuller announced he had violated the policy on performance-enhancing drugs and would be suspended for six games. He had been having an incredible year and one in which he finally stayed healthy. His loss will be a big one but others will need to step up in his absence. Brandin Cooks will be the go-to guy for Deshaun Watson for the rest of the season. He had already been good since Week 5. Since that point, Cooks has seen at least five targets in every game and scored at least 9.9 DraftKings points in every game as well. Over that span, he’s averaging six catches for 83 yards. The matchup against the Indianapolis Colts seems tougher on paper but as the main weapon, in a dome, and with game script projected to be in his favor, Cooks looks like a nice option this week.
Josh Reynolds (LAR) – $4,200 @ ARI
Over the last six games, Josh Reynolds has been sneaky good. In that span, he’s averaging 11.45 DraftKings points per game. Reynolds has seen at least five targets in all six games and at least six targets in five of those games. He’ll never be the main target, but he brings a solid floor especially at his price. This week’s matchup against the Arizona Cardinals is a good one. The Cardinals allow the eighth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers so far this season. This game is also projected to be the fastest-paced game on the entire slate. The Los Angeles Rams also have the eighth-highest implied team total on the slate. Reynolds should be a solid salary-saving option.
Others to Consider: Justin Jefferson (MIN) – $6,900 v JAX, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – $6,100 @ ARI, Michael Thomas (NO) – $7,000 @ ATL, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – $4,100 v LV, Sterling Shepard (NYG) – $5,300 @ SEA, Keke Coutee (HOU) – $3,500 v IND
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (DET) – $5,000 @CHI
T.J. Hockenson has been surprisingly consistent for most of this season at a position that has lacked much consistency. He’s scored between 9.3 and 16.9 DraftKings points in every game this year besides for one. He’s seen at least four targets in every game this season. There’s something to be said for that type of consistency. Recently, those numbers are even better. Hockenson has scored double-digit DraftKings points in five of his last six games. This week’s matchup against the Chicago Bears is a great one. The Bears have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to tight ends this season. With Kenny Golladay out, Hockenson should see a boost in target share and is a safe option this week.
Darren Waller (LV) – $6,100 @ NYJ
Darren Waller was a bust last week. There’s no other way to put it. In what looked like a great spot, Waller was a bust. Don’t let last week sway you from firing him back up this week. Last week the entire Las Vegas Raiders team was terrible. That’s a game to just throw completely out of the window. This week’s matchup against the New York Jets is a great one. The Jets allow the fourth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year and are just a generally bad defense overall. The Raiders currently have the sixth-highest implied team total on the slate. This looks like a great rebound spot for Waller and the Raiders.
Darren Waller receiving
🔺 86 targets (2nd most among TEs)
🔺 2 drops pic.twitter.com/suXzDDjMIi— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 4, 2020
Robert Tonyan (GB) – $3,700 v PHI
Here’s a fun fact: Robert Tonyan is currently the fourth-highest scoring tight end on the season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. Tonyan was an afterthought back in August and has turned in a nice season. He’s still only the 11th-most expensive tight end on the slate. This makes him a great value option this week. Looking at the matchup specifically, the Philadelphia Eagles haven’t done a good job in defending the tight end position this year. They allow the eighth-most DraftKings points to tight ends so far this season. Their linebackers are a slower group which should allow Tonyan to take advantage. He’s also been good over the last two weeks scoring at least 15 DraftKings points in both games. The Packers, as mentioned before, have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate. There’s a lot of good things in Tonyan’s favor along with his price that make him a nice value option this week.
Others to Consider: Anthony Firkser (TEN) – $2,500 v CLE, Mike Gesicki (MIA) – $4,200 v CIN, Kyle Rudolph (MIN) – $3,400 v JAX
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Deshaun Watson
- RB – Devontae Booker
- RB – David Montgomery
- WR – Michael Thomas
- WR – Justin Jefferson
- WR – Brandin Cooks
- TE – Anthony Firkser
- Flex – Austin Ekeler
- DST – New York Giants
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 13 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 14. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
